R version 2.9.0 (2009-04-17)
Copyright (C) 2009 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(4143,4429,5219,4929,5761,5592,4163,4962,5208,4755,4491,5732,5731,5040,6102,4904,5369,5578,4619,4731,5011,5299,4146,4625,4736,4219,5116,4205,4121,5103,4300,4578,3809,5657,4248,3830,4736,4839,4411,4570,4104,4801,3953,3828,4440,4026,4109,4785,3224,3552,3940,3913,3681,4309,3830,4143,4087,3818,3380,3430,3458,3970,5260,5024,5634,6549,4676)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '2'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '-0.9'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: Wessa P., (2009), ARIMA Forecasting (v1.0.5) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: 
> #Technical description: 
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1      ar2
      -0.7737  -0.5401
s.e.   0.1146   0.1144

sigma^2 estimated as 2.764e-09:  log likelihood = 454.96,  aic = -903.93
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,par1))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 56 
End = 67 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.0005935255 0.0005629242 0.0005878431 0.0005850923 0.0005737616
 [6] 0.0005840135 0.0005822017 0.0005780663 0.0005822443 0.0005812455
[11] 0.0005797616 0.0005814491

$se
Time Series:
Start = 56 
End = 67 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 5.257604e-05 5.390590e-05 5.594667e-05 6.576294e-05 6.811561e-05
 [6] 7.104107e-05 7.613492e-05 7.884527e-05 8.183859e-05 8.543839e-05
[11] 8.816235e-05 9.098777e-05

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 56 
End = 67 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.0004904765 0.0004572687 0.0004781876 0.0004561969 0.0004402550
 [6] 0.0004447730 0.0004329773 0.0004235296 0.0004218406 0.0004137863
[11] 0.0004069634 0.0004031131
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 56 
End = 67 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.0006965745 0.0006685798 0.0006974986 0.0007139876 0.0007072682
 [6] 0.0007232540 0.0007314262 0.0007326030 0.0007426479 0.0007487048
[11] 0.0007525598 0.0007597851
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 4143.000 4429.000 5219.000 4929.000 5761.000 5592.000 4163.000 4962.000
 [9] 5208.000 4755.000 4491.000 5732.000 5731.000 5040.000 6102.000 4904.000
[17] 5369.000 5578.000 4619.000 4731.000 5011.000 5299.000 4146.000 4625.000
[25] 4736.000 4219.000 5116.000 4205.000 4121.000 5103.000 4300.000 4578.000
[33] 3809.000 5657.000 4248.000 3830.000 4736.000 4839.000 4411.000 4570.000
[41] 4104.000 4801.000 3953.000 3828.000 4440.000 4026.000 4109.000 4785.000
[49] 3224.000 3552.000 3940.000 3913.000 3681.000 4309.000 3830.000 3846.514
[57] 4079.540 3887.850 3908.165 3994.013 3916.188 3929.731 3960.980 3929.412
[65] 3936.915 3948.112 3935.383
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 56 
End = 67 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.1204156 0.1325626 0.1315514 0.1624998 0.1745772 0.1803077 0.1987892
 [8] 0.2106515 0.2196760 0.2340576 0.2457843 0.2562830
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/181jv1292803410.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse1 <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape[1] = abs(perf.pe[1])
> perf.mse[1] = abs(perf.se[1])
> for (i in 2:fx) {
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i-1] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.mape1[i] = perf.mape[i] / i
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i-1] + perf.se[i]
+ perf.mse1[i] = perf.mse[i] / i
+ }
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse1)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/24thm1292803410.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:par1] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3bueg1292803410.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse1[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4edum1292803410.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/181jv1292803410.ps tmp/181jv1292803410.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/24thm1292803410.ps tmp/24thm1292803410.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.587   0.354   1.354