Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.9811 | 0.9808 | 0.000299999999999967 |
3 | 1.0014 | 0.9811 | 0.0203000000000001 |
4 | 1.0183 | 1.0014 | 0.0168999999999999 |
5 | 1.0622 | 1.0183 | 0.0439000000000001 |
6 | 1.0773 | 1.0622 | 0.0150999999999999 |
7 | 1.0807 | 1.0773 | 0.00340000000000007 |
8 | 1.0848 | 1.0807 | 0.00409999999999999 |
9 | 1.1582 | 1.0848 | 0.0733999999999999 |
10 | 1.1663 | 1.1582 | 0.0081 |
11 | 1.1372 | 1.1663 | -0.0290999999999999 |
12 | 1.1139 | 1.1372 | -0.0233000000000001 |
13 | 1.1222 | 1.1139 | 0.0083000000000002 |
14 | 1.1692 | 1.1222 | 0.0469999999999999 |
15 | 1.1702 | 1.1692 | 0.00099999999999989 |
16 | 1.2286 | 1.1702 | 0.0584 |
17 | 1.2613 | 1.2286 | 0.0327000000000002 |
18 | 1.2646 | 1.2613 | 0.00329999999999986 |
19 | 1.2262 | 1.2646 | -0.0384 |
20 | 1.1985 | 1.2262 | -0.0277000000000001 |
21 | 1.2007 | 1.1985 | 0.0022000000000002 |
22 | 1.2138 | 1.2007 | 0.0130999999999999 |
23 | 1.2266 | 1.2138 | 0.0127999999999999 |
24 | 1.2176 | 1.2266 | -0.0089999999999999 |
25 | 1.2218 | 1.2176 | 0.00419999999999998 |
26 | 1.249 | 1.2218 | 0.0272000000000001 |
27 | 1.2991 | 1.249 | 0.0500999999999998 |
28 | 1.3408 | 1.2991 | 0.0417000000000001 |
29 | 1.3119 | 1.3408 | -0.0288999999999999 |
30 | 1.3014 | 1.3119 | -0.0105000000000002 |
31 | 1.3201 | 1.3014 | 0.0187000000000002 |
32 | 1.2938 | 1.3201 | -0.0263 |
33 | 1.2694 | 1.2938 | -0.0244 |
34 | 1.2165 | 1.2694 | -0.0529000000000002 |
35 | 1.2037 | 1.2165 | -0.0127999999999999 |
36 | 1.2292 | 1.2037 | 0.0255000000000001 |
37 | 1.2256 | 1.2292 | -0.00360000000000005 |
38 | 1.2015 | 1.2256 | -0.0241 |
39 | 1.1786 | 1.2015 | -0.0228999999999999 |
40 | 1.1856 | 1.1786 | 0.0069999999999999 |
41 | 1.2103 | 1.1856 | 0.0246999999999999 |
42 | 1.1938 | 1.2103 | -0.0165000000000000 |
43 | 1.202 | 1.1938 | 0.00819999999999999 |
44 | 1.2271 | 1.202 | 0.0251000000000001 |
45 | 1.277 | 1.2271 | 0.0498999999999998 |
46 | 1.265 | 1.277 | -0.012 |
47 | 1.2684 | 1.265 | 0.00340000000000007 |
48 | 1.2811 | 1.2684 | 0.0126999999999999 |
49 | 1.2727 | 1.2811 | -0.00839999999999996 |
50 | 1.2611 | 1.2727 | -0.0115999999999998 |
51 | 1.2881 | 1.2611 | 0.0269999999999999 |
52 | 1.3213 | 1.2881 | 0.0331999999999999 |
53 | 1.2999 | 1.3213 | -0.0213999999999999 |
54 | 1.3074 | 1.2999 | 0.00749999999999984 |
55 | 1.3242 | 1.3074 | 0.0168000000000001 |
56 | 1.3516 | 1.3242 | 0.0273999999999999 |
57 | 1.3511 | 1.3516 | -0.000499999999999945 |
58 | 1.3419 | 1.3511 | -0.00919999999999987 |
59 | 1.3716 | 1.3419 | 0.0296999999999998 |
60 | 1.3622 | 1.3716 | -0.00939999999999985 |
61 | 1.3896 | 1.3622 | 0.0273999999999999 |
62 | 1.4227 | 1.3896 | 0.0331000000000001 |
63 | 1.4684 | 1.4227 | 0.0456999999999999 |
64 | 1.457 | 1.4684 | -0.0113999999999999 |
65 | 1.4718 | 1.457 | 0.0147999999999999 |
66 | 1.4748 | 1.4718 | 0.00300000000000011 |
67 | 1.5527 | 1.4748 | 0.0778999999999999 |
68 | 1.575 | 1.5527 | 0.0223 |
69 | 1.5557 | 1.575 | -0.0192999999999999 |
70 | 1.5553 | 1.5557 | -0.000400000000000178 |
71 | 1.577 | 1.5553 | 0.0217000000000001 |
72 | 1.4975 | 1.577 | -0.0794999999999999 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.4975 | 1.44265465615809 | 1.55234534384192 |
74 | 1.4975 | 1.41993697090575 | 1.57506302909425 |
75 | 1.4975 | 1.40250507790722 | 1.59249492209278 |
76 | 1.4975 | 1.38780931231617 | 1.60719068768383 |
77 | 1.4975 | 1.37486208292013 | 1.62013791707987 |
78 | 1.4975 | 1.36315689281981 | 1.63184310718019 |
79 | 1.4975 | 1.35239285962447 | 1.64260714037553 |
80 | 1.4975 | 1.34237394181150 | 1.65262605818850 |
81 | 1.4975 | 1.33296396847426 | 1.66203603152574 |
82 | 1.4975 | 1.32406379440446 | 1.67093620559554 |
83 | 1.4975 | 1.31559857297834 | 1.67940142702166 |
84 | 1.4975 | 1.30751015581444 | 1.68748984418556 |