| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0408861316325923 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.01 |
| 5 | 0.87 | 0.860408861316326 | 0.00959113868367412 |
| 6 | 0.87 | 0.860801005875053 | 0.00919899412494696 |
| 7 | 0.88 | 0.861177117159733 | 0.0188228828402669 |
| 8 | 0.87 | 0.871946712025245 | -0.0019467120252451 |
| 9 | 0.86 | 0.86186711850113 | -0.00186711850113019 |
| 10 | 0.86 | 0.85179077924832 | 0.00820922075168062 |
| 11 | 0.86 | 0.852126422528574 | 0.00787357747142647 |
| 12 | 0.84 | 0.85244834265349 | -0.0124483426534897 |
| 13 | 0.84 | 0.831939378077151 | 0.00806062192284851 |
| 14 | 0.83 | 0.83226894572613 | -0.00226894572612968 |
| 15 | 0.84 | 0.822176177312504 | 0.0178238226874960 |
| 16 | 0.88 | 0.8329049244731 | 0.0470950755268992 |
| 17 | 0.9 | 0.87483045993034 | 0.0251695400696594 |
| 18 | 0.89 | 0.89585954505876 | -0.00585954505876041 |
| 19 | 0.91 | 0.885619970928181 | 0.0243800290718191 |
| 20 | 0.94 | 0.906616776006018 | 0.0333832239939822 |
| 21 | 0.94 | 0.937981686896556 | 0.00201831310344402 |
| 22 | 0.95 | 0.93806420791178 | 0.0119357920882208 |
| 23 | 0.95 | 0.948552216278237 | 0.00144778372176257 |
| 24 | 0.98 | 0.94861141055406 | 0.0313885894459391 |
| 25 | 0.96 | 0.979894768553909 | -0.0198947685539090 |
| 26 | 1 | 0.959081348428014 | 0.0409186515719862 |
| 27 | 1.05 | 1.00075435380241 | 0.0492456461975856 |
| 28 | 1.03 | 1.05276781777518 | -0.0227678177751809 |
| 29 | 1.07 | 1.03183692978064 | 0.0381630702193620 |
| 30 | 1.12 | 1.07339727009313 | 0.0466027299068694 |
| 31 | 1.1 | 1.12530267544254 | -0.0253026754425412 |
| 32 | 1.06 | 1.10426814692374 | -0.0442681469237405 |
| 33 | 1.11 | 1.06245819364149 | 0.0475418063585145 |
| 34 | 1.08 | 1.11440199419431 | -0.034401994194311 |
| 35 | 1.07 | 1.08299542973126 | -0.0129954297312587 |
| 36 | 1.02 | 1.07246409688064 | -0.0524640968806445 |
| 37 | 1 | 1.02031904290960 | -0.0203190429095972 |
| 38 | 1.04 | 0.999488275846547 | 0.0405117241534528 |
| 39 | 1.02 | 1.04114464353295 | -0.0211446435329485 |
| 40 | 1.07 | 1.02028012085414 | 0.049719879145864 |
| 41 | 1.12 | 1.07231297437765 | 0.0476870256223496 |
| 42 | 1.08 | 1.12426271238441 | -0.0442627123844128 |
| 43 | 1.02 | 1.08245298129945 | -0.0624529812994481 |
| 44 | 1.01 | 1.01989952048519 | -0.00989952048519105 |
| 45 | 1.04 | 1.00949476738753 | 0.0305052326124662 |
| 46 | 0.98 | 1.04074200834361 | -0.0607420083436101 |
| 47 | 0.95 | 0.978258502594845 | -0.0282585025948452 |
| 48 | 0.94 | 0.947103121738012 | -0.00710312173801242 |
| 49 | 0.94 | 0.93681270256763 | 0.00318729743237034 |
| 50 | 0.96 | 0.936943018830002 | 0.0230569811699982 |
| 51 | 0.97 | 0.957885729597169 | 0.0121142704028314 |
| 52 | 1.03 | 0.968381035251492 | 0.0616189647485085 |
| 53 | 1.01 | 1.03090039635526 | -0.0209003963552632 |
| 54 | 0.99 | 1.01004585999871 | -0.0200458599987086 |
| 55 | 1 | 0.989226262328113 | 0.0107737376718873 |
| 56 | 1 | 0.99966675878474 | 0.000333241215259461 |
| 57 | 1.02 | 0.999680383728933 | 0.0203196162710669 |
| 58 | 1.01 | 1.02051117423452 | -0.0105111742345156 |
| 59 | 0.99 | 1.01008141298115 | -0.0200814129811502 |
| 60 | 0.98 | 0.989260361686634 | -0.00926036168663447 |
| 61 | 1.01 | 0.97888174131975 | 0.0311182586802508 |
| 62 | 1.03 | 1.01015404654033 | 0.0198459534596729 |
| 63 | 1.03 | 1.03096547080585 | -0.000965470805853519 |
| 64 | 1 | 1.03092599643940 | -0.030925996439398 |
| 65 | 0.96 | 0.999661552078108 | -0.0396615520781077 |
| 66 | 0.97 | 0.95803994463909 | 0.0119600553609107 |
| 67 | 0.98 | 0.968528945036909 | 0.0114710549630914 |
| 68 | 1.02 | 0.978997952100094 | 0.0410020478999058 |
| 69 | 1.04 | 1.02067436722774 | 0.0193256327722644 |
| 70 | 1.01 | 1.04146451759315 | -0.0314645175931456 |
| 71 | 1.01 | 1.01017805518508 | -0.000178055185076076 |
| 72 | 1 | 1.01017077519734 | -0.0101707751973412 |
| 73 | 1.01 | 0.999754931543817 | 0.0102450684561827 |
| 74 | 1.02 | 1.01017381276130 | 0.00982618723869821 |
| 75 | 1.03 | 1.02057556754619 | 0.00942443245381042 |
| 76 | 1.06 | 1.03096089613206 | 0.0290391038679414 |
| 77 | 1.12 | 1.06214819275530 | 0.0578518072447043 |
| 78 | 1.12 | 1.12451352936149 | -0.00451352936148619 |
| 79 | 1.13 | 1.12432898860588 | 0.00567101139411497 |
| 80 | 1.13 | 1.13456085432423 | -0.00456085432423459 |
| 81 | 1.13 | 1.13437437863398 | -0.00437437863397672 |
| 82 | 1.17 | 1.13419552721334 | 0.0358044727866629 |
| 83 | 1.14 | 1.17565943360073 | -0.0356594336007283 |
| 84 | 1.08 | 1.14420145730459 | -0.064201457304585 |
| 85 | 1.07 | 1.08157650807023 | -0.0115765080702257 |
| 86 | 1.12 | 1.07110318943742 | 0.0488968105625793 |
| 87 | 1.14 | 1.12310239087050 | 0.0168976091295037 |
| 88 | 1.21 | 1.14379326874164 | 0.066206731258359 |
| 89 | 1.2 | 1.21650020587083 | -0.0165002058708341 |
| 90 | 1.23 | 1.20582557628163 | 0.0241744237183656 |
| 91 | 1.29 | 1.23681397495193 | 0.0531860250480745 |
| 92 | 1.31 | 1.29898854577306 | 0.0110114542269446 |
| 93 | 1.37 | 1.31943876154004 | 0.0505612384599554 |
| 94 | 1.35 | 1.38150601499123 | -0.0315060149912252 |
| 95 | 1.26 | 1.36021785591508 | -0.100217855915076 |
| 96 | 1.26 | 1.26612033546620 | -0.00612033546619561 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 1.26587009862469 | 1.20443823561143 | 1.32730196163795 |
| 98 | 1.27174019724938 | 1.18306858690393 | 1.36041180759483 |
| 99 | 1.27761029587407 | 1.16679982953353 | 1.3884207622146 |
| 100 | 1.28348039449876 | 1.15296064086730 | 1.41400014813022 |
| 101 | 1.28935049312345 | 1.14053983564163 | 1.43816115060526 |
| 102 | 1.29522059174813 | 1.12903035763751 | 1.46141082585876 |
| 103 | 1.30109069037282 | 1.11813777327275 | 1.48404360747289 |
| 104 | 1.30696078899751 | 1.10767467043455 | 1.50624690756048 |
| 105 | 1.31283088762220 | 1.09751397507275 | 1.52814780017166 |
| 106 | 1.31870098624689 | 1.08756545328859 | 1.54983651920520 |
| 107 | 1.32457108487158 | 1.07776273870630 | 1.57137943103686 |
| 108 | 1.33044118349627 | 1.06805565485705 | 1.59282671213549 |
