Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.693880469628355 |
beta | 0.087046697378327 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.3 | 1.29 | 0.01 |
4 | 1.3 | 1.29754280472885 | 0.00245719527115185 |
5 | 1.3 | 1.30000021917251 | -2.19172507698318e-07 |
6 | 1.3 | 1.30075246848991 | -0.000752468489908953 |
7 | 1.31 | 1.30093729759843 | 0.0090627024015666 |
8 | 1.31 | 1.30848006934918 | 0.00151993065081557 |
9 | 1.31 | 1.31088086291148 | -0.000880862911483815 |
10 | 1.31 | 1.31156258858657 | -0.00156258858657199 |
11 | 1.31 | 1.31167689777435 | -0.00167689777435487 |
12 | 1.32 | 1.31161060541820 | 0.00838939458179566 |
13 | 1.32 | 1.31903583618962 | 0.000964163810384111 |
14 | 1.32 | 1.32136707984355 | -0.00136707984354878 |
15 | 1.32 | 1.32199814742907 | -0.00199814742907023 |
16 | 1.33 | 1.32207064143076 | 0.00792935856923993 |
17 | 1.33 | 1.3295105712402 | 0.000489428759800514 |
18 | 1.33 | 1.33181764055815 | -0.00181764055814893 |
19 | 1.34 | 1.33241409403866 | 0.00758590596133701 |
20 | 1.34 | 1.33999367353906 | 6.32646094178568e-06 |
21 | 1.34 | 1.34231431297440 | -0.00231431297439522 |
22 | 1.34 | 1.34288492151731 | -0.00288492151731257 |
23 | 1.34 | 1.34288534666746 | -0.0028853466674561 |
24 | 1.34 | 1.34271120186611 | -0.00271120186610796 |
25 | 1.34 | 1.34249413613976 | -0.00249413613976057 |
26 | 1.35 | 1.34227704225059 | 0.007722957749412 |
27 | 1.36 | 1.34961585694069 | 0.0103841430593148 |
28 | 1.36 | 1.35942841841798 | 0.000571581582015757 |
29 | 1.36 | 1.36246675865857 | -0.00246675865857293 |
30 | 1.37 | 1.36324786171512 | 0.00675213828487942 |
31 | 1.37 | 1.37083360648664 | -0.000833606486641436 |
32 | 1.37 | 1.37310540127911 | -0.00310540127911074 |
33 | 1.37 | 1.37361327578671 | -0.00361327578671133 |
34 | 1.37 | 1.37355050422318 | -0.00355050422318159 |
35 | 1.37 | 1.37331683815499 | -0.00331683815499084 |
36 | 1.37 | 1.37304497137257 | -0.00304497137257020 |
37 | 1.38 | 1.37277783135999 | 0.00722216864000713 |
38 | 1.38 | 1.38007107829046 | -7.10782904578267e-05 |
39 | 1.38 | 1.38229939048672 | -0.00229939048672101 |
40 | 1.39 | 1.38284263717688 | 0.0071573628231234 |
41 | 1.4 | 1.39038004503265 | 0.00961995496734902 |
42 | 1.4 | 1.40020724279332 | -0.000207242793318629 |
43 | 1.4 | 1.40320302249129 | -0.00320302249129223 |
44 | 1.4 | 1.40392662659663 | -0.00392662659662824 |
45 | 1.41 | 1.40391096768631 | 0.00608903231369462 |
46 | 1.42 | 1.41121275645589 | 0.0087872435441092 |
47 | 1.43 | 1.42091753083987 | 0.0090824691601279 |
48 | 1.43 | 1.43137573767979 | -0.0013757376797916 |
49 | 1.43 | 1.43449410448582 | -0.00449410448581755 |
50 | 1.44 | 1.43517725354243 | 0.00482274645757341 |
51 | 1.45 | 1.44261647740884 | 0.00738352259116426 |
52 | 1.45 | 1.45227853860998 | -0.00227853860998461 |
53 | 1.46 | 1.45509866050784 | 0.00490133949216065 |
54 | 1.46 | 1.46319680051637 | -0.0031968005163725 |
55 | 1.47 | 1.46548271257107 | 0.00451728742893054 |
56 | 1.47 | 1.47339412376743 | -0.00339412376742532 |
57 | 1.47 | 1.47561095616083 | -0.00561095616082552 |
58 | 1.48 | 1.47595067008162 | 0.00404932991838014 |
59 | 1.49 | 1.48323804738405 | 0.0067619526159457 |
60 | 1.49 | 1.49281608255782 | -0.00281608255782362 |
61 | 1.49 | 1.49557801479144 | -0.00557801479143771 |
62 | 1.5 | 1.49608658407814 | 0.00391341592185745 |
63 | 1.51 | 1.50341744210006 | 0.00658255789994211 |
64 | 1.51 | 1.51299795212982 | -0.00299795212982357 |
65 | 1.51 | 1.51574965704245 | -0.00574965704245223 |
66 | 1.52 | 1.51624472835394 | 0.00375527164606027 |
67 | 1.52 | 1.52356190246725 | -0.0035619024672473 |
68 | 1.52 | 1.52558669344984 | -0.00558669344983964 |
69 | 1.52 | 1.52586908521197 | -0.00586908521196827 |
70 | 1.53 | 1.52560103807966 | 0.0043989619203435 |
71 | 1.53 | 1.53272348562799 | -0.00272348562799318 |
72 | 1.53 | 1.53473930738579 | -0.00473930738578709 |
73 | 1.53 | 1.53507013561406 | -0.005070135614061 |
74 | 1.54 | 1.53486517238833 | 0.00513482761166628 |
75 | 1.54 | 1.54205137744268 | -0.00205137744268025 |
76 | 1.55 | 1.54412731195485 | 0.00587268804514696 |
77 | 1.55 | 1.55205631112614 | -0.00205631112613647 |
78 | 1.55 | 1.55435933143005 | -0.00435933143005185 |
79 | 1.56 | 1.55480102729135 | 0.00519897270864855 |
80 | 1.56 | 1.56218906168580 | -0.00218906168579602 |
81 | 1.58 | 1.56431846397204 | 0.0156815360279579 |
82 | 1.58 | 1.57979508981960 | 0.000204910180397588 |
83 | 1.58 | 1.58454516383136 | -0.0045451638313585 |
84 | 1.58 | 1.58572472634685 | -0.0057247263468525 |
85 | 1.58 | 1.58574003998015 | -0.00574003998014727 |
86 | 1.58 | 1.58539802934889 | -0.00539802934888645 |
87 | 1.59 | 1.58496729222481 | 0.00503270777518838 |
88 | 1.59 | 1.59207821544097 | -0.00207821544096998 |
89 | 1.6 | 1.59412948369701 | 0.00587051630299285 |
90 | 1.6 | 1.60205080087231 | -0.00205080087231280 |
91 | 1.6 | 1.60435180238658 | -0.00435180238657606 |
92 | 1.61 | 1.60479333501119 | 0.00520666498881384 |
93 | 1.62 | 1.61218178404944 | 0.00781821595056109 |
94 | 1.62 | 1.62185455756436 | -0.00185455756436070 |
95 | 1.63 | 1.62470356716721 | 0.00529643283278647 |
96 | 1.63 | 1.63283441390549 | -0.00283441390549433 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 1.63515222628142 | 1.62530346020719 | 1.64500099235564 |
98 | 1.63943678310921 | 1.62710048498946 | 1.65177308122896 |
99 | 1.64372133993700 | 1.62900528179991 | 1.65843739807409 |
100 | 1.64800589676479 | 1.63095185705266 | 1.66505993647692 |
101 | 1.65229045359258 | 1.63290680864488 | 1.67167409854028 |
102 | 1.65657501042037 | 1.63485114428438 | 1.67829887655635 |
103 | 1.66085956724816 | 1.63677326396718 | 1.68494587052913 |
104 | 1.66514412407595 | 1.63866574876819 | 1.69162249938371 |
105 | 1.66942868090374 | 1.64052371334773 | 1.69833364845975 |
106 | 1.67371323773153 | 1.64234388792790 | 1.70508258753515 |
107 | 1.67799779455932 | 1.64412407374308 | 1.71187151537556 |
108 | 1.68228235138711 | 1.64586280383569 | 1.71870189893853 |