| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.562783761271795 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 43129 | 39690 | 3439 |
| 4 | 37863 | 41625.4133550137 | -3762.41335501370 |
| 5 | 35953 | 39507.9882156199 | -3554.98821561986 |
| 6 | 29133 | 37507.2985763564 | -8374.2985763564 |
| 7 | 24693 | 32794.3793255415 | -8101.3793255415 |
| 8 | 22205 | 28235.0545972237 | -6030.0545972237 |
| 9 | 21725 | 24841.4377903239 | -3116.43779032386 |
| 10 | 27192 | 23087.5572089158 | 4104.44279108416 |
| 11 | 21790 | 25397.4709608071 | -3607.47096080709 |
| 12 | 13253 | 23367.2448848053 | -10114.2448848053 |
| 13 | 37702 | 17675.1121061106 | 20026.8878938894 |
| 14 | 30364 | 28945.9194016022 | 1418.08059839776 |
| 15 | 32609 | 29743.9921345551 | 2865.00786544491 |
| 16 | 30212 | 31356.3720371435 | -1144.37203714345 |
| 17 | 29965 | 30712.3380377856 | -747.338037785594 |
| 18 | 28352 | 30291.7483259391 | -1939.74832593914 |
| 19 | 25814 | 29200.0894671464 | -3386.08946714644 |
| 20 | 22414 | 27294.4533008230 | -4880.45330082296 |
| 21 | 20506 | 24547.8134354745 | -4041.81343547447 |
| 22 | 28806 | 22273.1464678993 | 6532.85353210073 |
| 23 | 22228 | 25949.7303505327 | -3721.73035053265 |
| 24 | 13971 | 23855.2009454205 | -9884.2009454205 |
| 25 | 36845 | 18292.5331601905 | 18552.4668398095 |
| 26 | 35338 | 28733.5602291688 | 6604.43977083125 |
| 27 | 35022 | 32450.4316844902 | 2571.56831550981 |
| 28 | 34777 | 33897.6685734602 | 879.331426539822 |
| 29 | 26887 | 34392.5420210928 | -7505.54202109276 |
| 30 | 23970 | 30168.5448520787 | -6198.54485207866 |
| 31 | 22780 | 26680.1044658139 | -3900.10446581391 |
| 32 | 17351 | 24485.1890051902 | -7134.18900519023 |
| 33 | 21382 | 20470.1832832254 | 911.816716774614 |
| 34 | 24561 | 20983.3389246823 | 3577.6610753177 |
| 35 | 17409 | 22996.7884812053 | -5587.78848120529 |
| 36 | 11514 | 19852.0718625614 | -8338.07186256137 |
| 37 | 31514 | 15159.5404179946 | 16354.4595820054 |
| 38 | 27071 | 24363.5646951231 | 2707.43530487687 |
| 39 | 29462 | 25887.2653194018 | 3574.73468059822 |
| 40 | 26105 | 27899.0679484976 | -1794.06794849758 |
| 41 | 22397 | 26889.3956404649 | -4492.39564046494 |
| 42 | 23843 | 24361.1483248031 | -518.148324803064 |
| 43 | 21705 | 24069.5428616737 | -2364.54286167372 |
| 44 | 18089 | 22738.8165362926 | -4649.81653629261 |
| 45 | 20764 | 20121.9752967741 | 642.024703225936 |
| 46 | 25316 | 20483.2963740850 | 4832.70362591503 |
| 47 | 17704 | 23203.0634977893 | -5499.06349778927 |
| 48 | 15548 | 20108.279859031 | -4560.27985903099 |
| 49 | 28029 | 17541.8284075135 | 10487.1715924865 |
| 50 | 29383 | 23443.8382814358 | 5939.16171856422 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26786.3020522108 | 9651.69794778919 |
| 52 | 32034 | 32218.1209259269 | -184.12092592688 |
| 53 | 22679 | 32114.5006587049 | -9435.5006587049 |
| 54 | 24319 | 26804.3541085165 | -2485.35410851645 |
| 55 | 18004 | 25405.6371752333 | -7401.63717523326 |
| 56 | 17537 | 21240.1159661863 | -3703.11596618634 |
| 57 | 20366 | 19156.0624343104 | 1209.93756568964 |
| 58 | 22782 | 19836.9956484332 | 2945.00435156679 |
| 59 | 19169 | 21494.3962743698 | -2325.39627436977 |
| 60 | 13807 | 20185.7010126325 | -6378.70101263253 |
| 61 | 29743 | 16595.871664715 | 13147.128335285 |
| 62 | 25591 | 23994.8619991697 | 1596.13800083032 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24893.1425467858 | 4202.85745321419 |
| 64 | 26482 | 27258.4424723949 | -776.44247239489 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26821.4732573693 | -4416.47325736932 |
| 66 | 27044 | 24335.9538260307 | 2708.04617396928 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25859.9982375148 | -7889.99823751485 |
| 68 | 18730 | 21419.6353529784 | -2689.63535297841 |
| 69 | 19684 | 19905.9522525796 | -221.952252579627 |
| 70 | 19785 | 19781.0411290501 | 3.95887094988211 |
| 71 | 18479 | 19783.2691173337 | -1304.26911733368 |
| 72 | 10698 | 19049.24763777 | -8351.24763776999 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 14349.3010808736 | 1752.95244691226 | 26945.6497148349 |
| 74 | 14349.3010808736 | -104.840541035601 | 28803.4427027828 |
| 75 | 14349.3010808736 | -1749.65606374034 | 30448.2582254875 |
| 76 | 14349.3010808736 | -3241.33939245836 | 31939.9415542056 |
| 77 | 14349.3010808736 | -4616.05795553625 | 33314.6601172834 |
| 78 | 14349.3010808736 | -5897.65065260571 | 34596.2528143529 |
| 79 | 14349.3010808736 | -7102.81456341074 | 35801.4167251579 |
| 80 | 14349.3010808736 | -8243.78362957834 | 36942.3857913255 |
| 81 | 14349.3010808736 | -9329.8392720101 | 38028.4414337573 |
| 82 | 14349.3010808736 | -10368.2210232831 | 39066.8231850303 |
| 83 | 14349.3010808736 | -11364.7050264482 | 40063.3071881954 |
| 84 | 14349.3010808736 | -12323.9874528879 | 41022.5896146351 |
