| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0725298686175101 |
| beta | 0.626267158445527 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 544740 | 545833.489583333 | -1093.48958333326 |
| 14 | 538848 | 540319.208132105 | -1471.20813210495 |
| 15 | 544740 | 546170.829007244 | -1430.82900724432 |
| 16 | 539808 | 540930.385922095 | -1122.38592209481 |
| 17 | 555474 | 556583.706953782 | -1109.70695378154 |
| 18 | 562407 | 563782.791287494 | -1375.79128749366 |
| 19 | 532968 | 540706.833888987 | -7738.83388898743 |
| 20 | 525075 | 529484.71921659 | -4409.7192165904 |
| 21 | 531915 | 528943.011788519 | 2971.98821148125 |
| 22 | 530967 | 527960.94547298 | 3006.05452702031 |
| 23 | 525075 | 528351.769222229 | -3276.76922222879 |
| 24 | 526035 | 529028.559657171 | -2993.55965717137 |
| 25 | 537807 | 531791.110633148 | 6015.88936685165 |
| 26 | 535914 | 525854.607210845 | 10059.3927891547 |
| 27 | 537807 | 532516.205215126 | 5290.79478487419 |
| 28 | 537807 | 528290.882915984 | 9516.11708401644 |
| 29 | 550635 | 545452.33660113 | 5182.66339886957 |
| 30 | 552528 | 553871.603330303 | -1343.60333030275 |
| 31 | 517194 | 525908.493510924 | -8714.49351092381 |
| 32 | 517194 | 518670.996285439 | -1476.99628543889 |
| 33 | 530967 | 526289.252805746 | 4677.74719425384 |
| 34 | 524127 | 526640.922054351 | -2513.92205435119 |
| 35 | 512355 | 521731.938549578 | -9376.93854957761 |
| 36 | 517194 | 522879.55176037 | -5685.55176037038 |
| 37 | 528981 | 534331.168057519 | -5350.16805751901 |
| 38 | 523089 | 531332.553642922 | -8243.55364292162 |
| 39 | 522141 | 531424.572035287 | -9283.57203528727 |
| 40 | 509409 | 528579.68340598 | -19170.6834059804 |
| 41 | 528021 | 536856.946032216 | -8835.94603221584 |
| 42 | 531915 | 534785.366727117 | -2870.36672711687 |
| 43 | 493635 | 496384.729513783 | -2749.72951378295 |
| 44 | 492687 | 493072.845299537 | -385.845299536886 |
| 45 | 512355 | 503308.573993586 | 9046.4260064144 |
| 46 | 501528 | 494335.473736081 | 7192.52626391948 |
| 47 | 482901 | 481234.580785782 | 1666.41921421775 |
| 48 | 490794 | 484577.767483246 | 6216.23251675355 |
| 49 | 499527 | 495715.241842413 | 3811.75815758726 |
| 50 | 501528 | 489625.339727645 | 11902.6602723546 |
| 51 | 495636 | 490056.805057647 | 5579.19494235347 |
| 52 | 483861 | 479637.853741772 | 4223.14625822782 |
| 53 | 508368 | 500777.590921943 | 7590.40907805669 |
| 54 | 508368 | 507757.008104387 | 610.991895612795 |
| 55 | 465234 | 472205.593287181 | -6971.59328718082 |
| 56 | 462303 | 473072.992317756 | -10769.9923177559 |
| 57 | 474075 | 493125.092681173 | -19050.0926811735 |
| 58 | 452514 | 480939.871290085 | -28425.8712900848 |
| 59 | 430848 | 459057.53659303 | -28209.5365930301 |
| 60 | 437796 | 462023.837489054 | -24227.8374890537 |
| 61 | 452514 | 464910.463440627 | -12396.4634406268 |
| 62 | 440730 | 460600.158069357 | -19870.1580693572 |
| 63 | 432849 | 446870.207616522 | -14021.207616522 |
| 64 | 416130 | 426889.524254476 | -10759.5242544763 |
| 65 | 438741 | 442502.624266002 | -3761.62426600244 |
| 66 | 439689 | 434106.852996732 | 5582.14700326789 |
| 67 | 396570 | 384030.553287011 | 12539.4467129895 |
| 68 | 395517 | 375823.614421634 | 19693.3855783657 |
| 69 | 403410 | 384822.844684205 | 18587.1553157947 |
| 70 | 378903 | 362798.463729941 | 16104.5362700589 |
| 71 | 352395 | 342496.036045291 | 9898.96395470866 |
| 72 | 363129 | 351799.732170932 | 11329.2678290681 |
| 73 | 377850 | 369734.153095112 | 8115.84690488834 |
| 74 | 362184 | 362407.303316892 | -223.303316892358 |
| 75 | 361236 | 358846.813012275 | 2389.18698772485 |
| 76 | 345462 | 347146.647400813 | -1684.64740081347 |
| 77 | 371010 | 374385.659159032 | -3375.65915903164 |
| 78 | 375957 | 379178.851275937 | -3221.85127593711 |
| 79 | 327798 | 339011.682352833 | -11213.6823528326 |
| 80 | 317064 | 338733.052569278 | -21669.0525692775 |
| 81 | 323904 | 344843.521774537 | -20939.5217745368 |
| 82 | 297396 | 316991.544578738 | -19595.5445787382 |
| 83 | 269943 | 286064.527777146 | -16121.5277771455 |
| 84 | 278784 | 291345.81046543 | -12561.8104654304 |
| 85 | 295410 | 300020.141745544 | -4610.14174554439 |
| 86 | 275838 | 278910.990449795 | -3072.99044979538 |
| 87 | 278784 | 272312.403405443 | 6471.59659455688 |
| 88 | 267012 | 252060.994275011 | 14951.0057249888 |
| 89 | 291516 | 274624.886950392 | 16891.1130496076 |
| 90 | 294450 | 277637.918797976 | 16812.0812020241 |
| 91 | 235572 | 229028.86774597 | 6543.13225402977 |
| 92 | 231663 | 218664.906920776 | 12998.0930792236 |
| 93 | 242397 | 227864.899130644 | 14532.1008693563 |
| 94 | 213999 | 205341.904400398 | 8657.09559960171 |
| 95 | 188451 | 182479.148113517 | 5971.85188648332 |
| 96 | 197292 | 196460.994859294 | 831.005140705762 |
| 97 | 218850 | 217886.586042483 | 963.413957516517 |
| 98 | 193386 | 203265.459475399 | -9879.45947539856 |
| 99 | 191397 | 209374.462327313 | -17977.4623273131 |
| 100 | 171732 | 198452.556235851 | -26720.5562358509 |
| 101 | 193386 | 221138.948489824 | -27752.948489824 |
| 102 | 200226 | 220158.323095599 | -19932.3230955989 |
| 103 | 139344 | 157008.688329753 | -17664.6883297532 |
| 104 | 139344 | 147424.753711742 | -8080.75371174209 |
| 105 | 148173 | 152110.213196108 | -3937.21319610818 |
| 106 | 124626 | 117551.383457176 | 7074.61654282376 |
| 107 | 98118 | 86764.1195917247 | 11353.8804082753 |
| 108 | 111891 | 91293.5633949666 | 20597.4366050334 |
| 109 | 136398 | 110098.689614013 | 26299.3103859872 |
| 110 | 109893 | 84232.6384913978 | 25660.3615086022 |
| 111 | 120732 | 83996.9195177119 | 36735.0804822881 |
| 112 | 105999 | 70007.7958289047 | 35991.2041710953 |
| 113 | 129558 | 100207.159142404 | 29350.8408575961 |
| 114 | 137439 | 117137.498535262 | 20301.5014647379 |
| 115 | 74559 | 67352.5632985783 | 7206.43670142167 |
| 116 | 69720 | 77934.4461870894 | -8214.44618708944 |
| 117 | 79506 | 95920.2512932232 | -16414.2512932232 |
| 118 | 55947 | 79569.8936143283 | -23622.8936143283 |
| 119 | 37332 | 58030.9443113993 | -20698.9443113993 |
| 120 | 45120 | 74858.6968984693 | -29738.6968984693 |
| 121 | 562407 | 99064.8193085362 | 463342.180691464 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 122 | 127920.206820529 | 36614.2809214646 | 219226.132719593 |
| 123 | 158544.626411695 | 66605.7295585656 | 250483.523264825 |
| 124 | 161982.378948333 | 68841.1766337602 | 255123.581262905 |
| 125 | 202558.925007289 | 107486.624457655 | 297631.225556923 |
| 126 | 226780.613026072 | 128915.712118894 | 324645.513933249 |
| 127 | 180268.927753683 | 78651.6317488553 | 281886.223758511 |
| 128 | 192589.3785784 | 86199.754222935 | 298979.002933865 |
| 129 | 220502.685593106 | 108297.638538717 | 332707.732647495 |
| 130 | 216339.420251262 | 97284.2318943968 | 335394.608608127 |
| 131 | 217981.105712414 | 91073.0688252913 | 344889.142599537 |
| 132 | 247621.652935155 | 111905.367156861 | 383337.938713448 |
| 133 | 752348.93193983 | 606924.309345036 | 897773.554534625 |
