| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0237763572067335 |
| beta | 0.13436882367833 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1000 | 1008.20245726496 | -8.20245726495727 |
| 14 | 1000 | 1010.70704334197 | -10.7070433419719 |
| 15 | 1080 | 1088.11787261139 | -8.11787261139102 |
| 16 | 1010 | 1016.39766127355 | -6.39766127355438 |
| 17 | 960 | 967.197911039368 | -7.19791103936836 |
| 18 | 990 | 998.372804553102 | -8.3728045531019 |
| 19 | 900 | 976.993013933364 | -76.9930139333644 |
| 20 | 920 | 924.569040667738 | -4.5690406677378 |
| 21 | 1080 | 1030.93578181776 | 49.064218182237 |
| 22 | 950 | 967.901143575667 | -17.901143575667 |
| 23 | 950 | 959.467122377869 | -9.46712237786937 |
| 24 | 1060 | 1089.53671924064 | -29.5367192406402 |
| 25 | 1070 | 971.860670877113 | 98.1393291228869 |
| 26 | 970 | 974.346226054947 | -4.34622605494735 |
| 27 | 1070 | 1054.35380856256 | 15.6461914374379 |
| 28 | 980 | 984.871759029796 | -4.87175902979595 |
| 29 | 970 | 934.925769356099 | 35.0742306439007 |
| 30 | 1050 | 966.092535576553 | 83.9074644234466 |
| 31 | 950 | 880.346733926113 | 69.6532660738873 |
| 32 | 960 | 903.00854680922 | 56.9914531907805 |
| 33 | 1170 | 1064.29077792228 | 105.709222077719 |
| 34 | 990 | 938.50450199589 | 51.4954980041101 |
| 35 | 870 | 941.450399370001 | -71.4503993700012 |
| 36 | 1090 | 1051.75224883048 | 38.2477511695197 |
| 37 | 1070 | 1061.84320727444 | 8.15679272556417 |
| 38 | 990 | 963.367969199481 | 26.632030800519 |
| 39 | 1080 | 1064.95562749535 | 15.0443725046466 |
| 40 | 890 | 976.753692916035 | -86.7536929160347 |
| 41 | 920 | 964.920004554381 | -44.9200045543805 |
| 42 | 1100 | 1042.66432682604 | 57.3356731739573 |
| 43 | 930 | 943.093937940225 | -13.0939379402249 |
| 44 | 950 | 951.885680386139 | -1.88568038613892 |
| 45 | 1240 | 1159.59748255794 | 80.4025174420617 |
| 46 | 950 | 980.473953295228 | -30.4739532952279 |
| 47 | 830 | 861.375514934302 | -31.3755149343025 |
| 48 | 1220 | 1079.77544959651 | 140.224550403493 |
| 49 | 1040 | 1063.29665768093 | -23.2966576809251 |
| 50 | 1080 | 982.390165731596 | 97.6098342684037 |
| 51 | 1160 | 1074.86066199439 | 85.1393380056113 |
| 52 | 900 | 889.678981926226 | 10.3210180737744 |
| 53 | 790 | 922.033876438224 | -132.033876438224 |
| 54 | 1100 | 1098.29451111009 | 1.70548888991425 |
| 55 | 1000 | 929.23181291969 | 70.7681870803096 |
| 56 | 990 | 951.812605389252 | 38.1873946107482 |
| 57 | 1250 | 1241.79025721957 | 8.20974278043013 |
| 58 | 970 | 953.460746706368 | 16.5392532936319 |
| 59 | 840 | 835.500915308499 | 4.49908469150103 |
| 60 | 1220 | 1223.28940032306 | -3.28940032305854 |
| 61 | 1100 | 1044.32214365539 | 55.6778563446064 |
| 62 | 1030 | 1084.13450547273 | -54.1345054727276 |
| 63 | 1210 | 1161.14763933247 | 48.8523606675258 |
| 64 | 830 | 902.272403132579 | -72.2724031325787 |
| 65 | 810 | 793.638072547046 | 16.3619274529535 |
| 66 | 1100 | 1104.40540362846 | -4.40540362846355 |
| 67 | 1020 | 1003.01738075958 | 16.9826192404179 |
| 68 | 950 | 992.740705528265 | -42.7407055282653 |
| 69 | 1280 | 1251.49823736448 | 28.5017626355175 |
| 70 | 950 | 971.816439123085 | -21.816439123085 |
| 71 | 720 | 841.101989881976 | -121.101989881976 |
| 72 | 1150 | 1217.81080326497 | -67.8108032649707 |
| 73 | 1030 | 1094.17852732664 | -64.1785273266419 |
| 74 | 1030 | 1022.86063430649 | 7.13936569351472 |
| 75 | 1200 | 1200.98552630307 | -0.985526303074266 |
| 76 | 870 | 821.63792147741 | 48.3620785225897 |
| 77 | 880 | 801.741624607225 | 78.2583753927754 |
| 78 | 1090 | 1093.24767109562 | -3.2476710956164 |
| 79 | 950 | 1012.31097016174 | -62.3109701617417 |
| 80 | 1060 | 941.136634984189 | 118.863365015811 |
| 81 | 1280 | 1273.09237201545 | 6.90762798454853 |
| 82 | 920 | 943.513604024529 | -23.5136040245293 |
| 83 | 630 | 715.566756570624 | -85.5667565706236 |
| 84 | 1110 | 1144.99096891122 | -34.9909689112226 |
| 85 | 1020 | 1025.63617979955 | -5.63617979955097 |
| 86 | 1130 | 1025.47069209901 | 104.529307900994 |
| 87 | 1160 | 1198.42886021955 | -38.428860219547 |
| 88 | 930 | 866.695073583375 | 63.3049264166248 |
| 89 | 930 | 876.717060192339 | 53.2829398076608 |
| 90 | 1110 | 1088.35888579327 | 21.6411142067259 |
| 91 | 930 | 950.732208862339 | -20.7322088623392 |
| 92 | 1070 | 1057.92321883059 | 12.0767811694134 |
| 93 | 1250 | 1278.21504475963 | -28.2150447596252 |
| 94 | 840 | 918.159973966533 | -78.1599739665335 |
| 95 | 680 | 628.218208331201 | 51.7817916687986 |
| 96 | 1110 | 1110.60227783805 | -0.602277838046575 |
| 97 | 990 | 1021.15276007447 | -31.1527600744679 |
| 98 | 1210 | 1128.27600874499 | 81.7239912550106 |
| 99 | 1130 | 1161.40922139448 | -31.4092213944816 |
| 100 | 920 | 929.456105867204 | -9.4561058672042 |
| 101 | 1030 | 928.030784760481 | 101.969215239519 |
| 102 | 1120 | 1110.16262220713 | 9.83737779287208 |
| 103 | 880 | 931.073672851197 | -51.0736728511971 |
| 104 | 1050 | 1069.65946738671 | -19.6594673867075 |
| 105 | 1260 | 1249.84877913515 | 10.1512208648512 |
| 106 | 790 | 842.056961523035 | -52.0569615230346 |
| 107 | 640 | 679.779912043618 | -39.7799120436177 |
| 108 | 1110 | 1108.74774699036 | 1.25225300963984 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 989.423481386149 | 884.78354459746 | 1094.06341817484 |
| 110 | 1207.48517068081 | 1102.80718099638 | 1312.16316036523 |
| 111 | 1127.97566375019 | 1023.25009179537 | 1232.701235705 |
| 112 | 918.044537919598 | 813.260800727887 | 1022.82827511131 |
| 113 | 1025.49433423039 | 920.640800583615 | 1130.34786787717 |
| 114 | 1114.80891865239 | 1009.87291551537 | 1219.74492178942 |
| 115 | 875.540317506472 | 770.508137645324 | 980.572497367621 |
| 116 | 1045.68797121878 | 940.544882086414 | 1150.83106035115 |
| 117 | 1255.18964344764 | 1149.91989741319 | 1360.45938948209 |
| 118 | 786.137968510051 | 680.724814501563 | 891.55112251854 |
| 119 | 636.960701699094 | 531.386398320275 | 742.535005077913 |
| 120 | 1106.93492838358 | 1001.18075855599 | 1212.68909821117 |
