| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653577978944095 |
| beta | 0.05293490449785 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 54862 | 66223.4086538462 | -11361.4086538462 |
| 14 | 47354 | 51171.0560418587 | -3817.05604185868 |
| 15 | 41207 | 42227.3004723998 | -1020.30047239979 |
| 16 | 41207 | 40808.0183305032 | 398.981669496781 |
| 17 | 64823 | 63633.4013463478 | 1189.59865365215 |
| 18 | 67277 | 65439.6291953319 | 1837.37080466813 |
| 19 | 48581 | 47423.1693368222 | 1157.83066317775 |
| 20 | 27431 | 35011.6762419167 | -7580.67624191675 |
| 21 | 38620 | 30734.3264760613 | 7885.67352393868 |
| 22 | 38620 | 35715.0136718533 | 2904.98632814671 |
| 23 | 47354 | 38717.3124638022 | 8636.68753619782 |
| 24 | 52396 | 47020.7791850519 | 5375.22081494809 |
| 25 | 51168 | 39207.3729173286 | 11960.6270826714 |
| 26 | 38620 | 43012.1763957195 | -4392.17639571954 |
| 27 | 44900 | 35642.3522845121 | 9257.64771548786 |
| 28 | 42434 | 42768.7281518581 | -334.728151858129 |
| 29 | 63584 | 66699.6243127483 | -3115.62431274835 |
| 30 | 58542 | 67078.6701904872 | -8536.67019048719 |
| 31 | 38620 | 42849.8607238173 | -4229.86072381731 |
| 32 | 23738 | 24506.7843336121 | -768.784333612093 |
| 33 | 37392 | 30891.9972569766 | 6500.00274302339 |
| 34 | 41207 | 34046.2566446379 | 7160.74335536209 |
| 35 | 44900 | 42767.4846547885 | 2132.51534521153 |
| 36 | 49808 | 46416.9709754718 | 3391.02902452818 |
| 37 | 39846 | 40246.2703463938 | -400.27034639378 |
| 38 | 31246 | 30537.8411295304 | 708.158870469633 |
| 39 | 34939 | 31637.0891319919 | 3301.91086800813 |
| 40 | 36166 | 31748.8708043334 | 4417.12919566657 |
| 41 | 68504 | 58187.4675361632 | 10316.5324638368 |
| 42 | 68504 | 66297.5740501655 | 2206.42594983452 |
| 43 | 49808 | 51783.9375542573 | -1975.93755425733 |
| 44 | 47354 | 37392.6962380649 | 9961.30376193513 |
| 45 | 54862 | 54959.8836095425 | -97.8836095425067 |
| 46 | 51168 | 55453.4944608551 | -4285.49446085506 |
| 47 | 61130 | 55978.5076800856 | 5151.4923199144 |
| 48 | 73546 | 63168.238631566 | 10377.761368434 |
| 49 | 76012 | 61623.3743186322 | 14388.6256813678 |
| 50 | 58542 | 63849.130405581 | -5307.13040558103 |
| 51 | 53622 | 63591.8433552013 | -9969.84335520134 |
| 52 | 48581 | 56633.0636107281 | -8052.06361072814 |
| 53 | 82280 | 77751.5846511895 | 4528.41534881049 |
| 54 | 84746 | 79854.7647320293 | 4891.23526797065 |
| 55 | 78466 | 66325.4631925355 | 12140.5368074645 |
| 56 | 84746 | 66462.6163526678 | 18283.3836473322 |
| 57 | 83507 | 87438.9820167178 | -3931.98201671781 |
| 58 | 73546 | 85298.1554857592 | -11752.1554857592 |
| 59 | 84746 | 85276.1043086369 | -530.104308636874 |
| 60 | 97162 | 91430.1975993609 | 5731.80240063915 |
| 61 | 102203 | 88944.7859792276 | 13258.2140207724 |
| 62 | 87200 | 84276.0747599845 | 2923.92524001552 |
| 63 | 77238 | 88735.3170272572 | -11497.3170272572 |
| 64 | 84746 | 82341.8881692771 | 2404.11183072295 |
| 65 | 117084 | 115913.556297024 | 1170.44370297578 |
| 66 | 127046 | 117092.618953478 | 9953.38104652229 |
| 67 | 124592 | 110703.16770163 | 13888.8322983703 |
| 68 | 129499 | 115491.497235403 | 14007.5027645969 |
| 69 | 128273 | 127209.927938129 | 1063.07206187138 |
| 70 | 115858 | 127030.071279482 | -11172.071279482 |
| 71 | 137008 | 132700.178060024 | 4307.82193997613 |
| 72 | 142049 | 145778.335993488 | -3729.33599348844 |
| 73 | 149423 | 140982.159756326 | 8440.84024367351 |
| 74 | 127046 | 130683.739178794 | -3637.73917879358 |
| 75 | 118312 | 126730.416968066 | -8418.41696806607 |
| 76 | 128273 | 128143.402228384 | 129.597771616056 |
| 77 | 152010 | 160700.788445042 | -8690.78844504175 |
| 78 | 173160 | 159035.860111122 | 14124.1398888784 |
| 79 | 168119 | 157438.438362291 | 10680.561637709 |
| 80 | 168119 | 160762.812474203 | 7356.18752579682 |
| 81 | 170585 | 164011.527592118 | 6573.47240788239 |
| 82 | 161971 | 163746.94140743 | -1775.94140742978 |
| 83 | 184361 | 181798.123622396 | 2562.87637760362 |
| 84 | 184361 | 191768.600999923 | -7407.6009999227 |
| 85 | 180546 | 189474.177477723 | -8928.17747772258 |
| 86 | 159384 | 163728.314748987 | -4344.31474898689 |
| 87 | 163199 | 157721.464028643 | 5477.53597135699 |
| 88 | 165665 | 171722.923959308 | -6057.9239593083 |
| 89 | 181895 | 197511.801266097 | -15616.8012660971 |
| 90 | 203045 | 199315.252237154 | 3729.74776284551 |
| 91 | 188041 | 189463.212837803 | -1422.21283780277 |
| 92 | 195550 | 183038.982402467 | 12511.0175975331 |
| 93 | 189269 | 188877.112029163 | 391.887970836833 |
| 94 | 185587 | 180957.573594548 | 4629.42640545161 |
| 95 | 214246 | 204197.448280015 | 10048.551719985 |
| 96 | 207965 | 215364.610957502 | -7399.61095750169 |
| 97 | 199230 | 212307.130469339 | -13077.1304693391 |
| 98 | 186815 | 185052.494823877 | 1762.5051761228 |
| 99 | 199230 | 186265.651094272 | 12964.3489057279 |
| 100 | 205511 | 201249.430262746 | 4261.56973725415 |
| 101 | 213006 | 230913.760752713 | -17907.760752713 |
| 102 | 222967 | 238284.966085897 | -15317.9660858969 |
| 103 | 213006 | 213903.016750002 | -897.016750002367 |
| 104 | 219154 | 212371.000002641 | 6782.99999735926 |
| 105 | 211657 | 209791.096598864 | 1865.90340113637 |
| 106 | 210431 | 203877.921975065 | 6553.07802493509 |
| 107 | 241542 | 229893.913242292 | 11648.0867577078 |
| 108 | 244129 | 235758.964173122 | 8370.03582687801 |
| 109 | 234168 | 241283.838785575 | -7115.83878557524 |
| 110 | 216700 | 223514.871025577 | -6814.87102557652 |
| 111 | 231581 | 223154.578542264 | 8426.42145773623 |
| 112 | 237850 | 232152.604942028 | 5697.39505797153 |
| 113 | 245357 | 255120.061373952 | -9763.06137395234 |
| 114 | 256546 | 269038.054053632 | -12492.0540536324 |
| 115 | 245357 | 251922.990618735 | -6565.99061873514 |
| 116 | 254092 | 249574.451935491 | 4517.54806450897 |
| 117 | 250277 | 243960.198080375 | 6316.80191962537 |
| 118 | 236622 | 242883.450933178 | -6261.4509331783 |
| 119 | 265279 | 262149.503812804 | 3129.49618719576 |
| 120 | 265279 | 260877.016407254 | 4401.98359274649 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 257872.142327918 | 242617.706242496 | 273126.57841334 |
| 122 | 244532.71010831 | 226015.150887455 | 263050.269329166 |
| 123 | 253816.679442844 | 232265.316496036 | 275368.042389652 |
| 124 | 255980.750692388 | 231527.967299707 | 280433.534085069 |
| 125 | 269290.322532656 | 242015.990806388 | 296564.654258924 |
| 126 | 288403.277385564 | 258355.482615829 | 318451.072155298 |
| 127 | 281697.276367708 | 248903.403873876 | 314491.14886154 |
| 128 | 287898.482692278 | 252371.724632597 | 323425.240751959 |
| 129 | 280217.442311146 | 241960.88176193 | 318474.002860362 |
| 130 | 270698.728056954 | 229708.036517537 | 311689.419596371 |
| 131 | 297570.925531757 | 253836.217336023 | 341305.633727491 |
| 132 | 294846.181805145 | 248353.330649525 | 341339.032960765 |
