| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00399960079540507 |
| beta | 0.645937396928935 |
| gamma | 0.832270390579904 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1000 | 1001.78685897436 | -1.78685897435912 |
| 14 | 960 | 960.730515496827 | -0.730515496826911 |
| 15 | 1060 | 1060.09317635743 | -0.0931763574321849 |
| 16 | 1060 | 1060.29147893315 | -0.291478933150984 |
| 17 | 1110 | 1110.48823534432 | -0.488235344317673 |
| 18 | 1030 | 1034.01627678975 | -4.01627678974683 |
| 19 | 960 | 945.85316479328 | 14.14683520672 |
| 20 | 1130 | 1117.79924622571 | 12.2007537742854 |
| 21 | 1150 | 1152.26906465574 | -2.26906465573757 |
| 22 | 1030 | 1042.50848081203 | -12.5084808120264 |
| 23 | 1040 | 1041.00796116796 | -1.00796116795641 |
| 24 | 1030 | 1119.55083495206 | -89.5508349520637 |
| 25 | 1070 | 997.277016935642 | 72.7229830643585 |
| 26 | 1000 | 957.36362420949 | 42.63637579051 |
| 27 | 1020 | 1057.50938431197 | -37.5093843119737 |
| 28 | 1100 | 1057.37832330306 | 42.621676696936 |
| 29 | 1080 | 1107.6791489788 | -27.6791489788018 |
| 30 | 990 | 1028.19918301338 | -38.1991830133793 |
| 31 | 1000 | 954.892487506551 | 45.1075124934492 |
| 32 | 1110 | 1125.36617260522 | -15.3661726052221 |
| 33 | 1170 | 1147.67684162354 | 22.3231583764587 |
| 34 | 1030 | 1029.53601455234 | 0.463985447663163 |
| 35 | 1100 | 1037.66342961492 | 62.3365703850834 |
| 36 | 1020 | 1043.26922158533 | -23.2692215853278 |
| 37 | 1090 | 1056.1537070672 | 33.8462929328032 |
| 38 | 990 | 991.422022343402 | -1.42202234340175 |
| 39 | 1060 | 1025.11882487169 | 34.8811751283113 |
| 40 | 1120 | 1092.05170719193 | 27.9482928080718 |
| 41 | 1030 | 1084.33109156717 | -54.3310915671739 |
| 42 | 1050 | 996.267707314253 | 53.7322926857466 |
| 43 | 1030 | 992.866267241371 | 37.1337327586288 |
| 44 | 1130 | 1113.63948176027 | 16.3605182397334 |
| 45 | 1140 | 1167.86184353687 | -27.8618435368739 |
| 46 | 980 | 1031.81320804886 | -51.8132080488581 |
| 47 | 1150 | 1091.29812985814 | 58.7018701418588 |
| 48 | 990 | 1026.19562110706 | -36.1956211070637 |
| 49 | 1020 | 1086.60888157732 | -66.6088815773189 |
| 50 | 1060 | 992.215563075663 | 67.7844369243367 |
| 51 | 1080 | 1056.43671219143 | 23.5632878085726 |
| 52 | 1180 | 1117.70244924568 | 62.297550754321 |
| 53 | 980 | 1042.12822665222 | -62.1282266522244 |
| 54 | 960 | 1043.80556987885 | -83.8055698788471 |
| 55 | 1020 | 1025.93314162693 | -5.93314162693264 |
| 56 | 1170 | 1129.04140626358 | 40.9585937364216 |
| 57 | 1150 | 1146.4950252558 | 3.50497474420195 |
| 58 | 950 | 990.589228910525 | -40.5892289105254 |
| 59 | 1160 | 1141.63025731321 | 18.369742686788 |
| 60 | 1120 | 997.498421145507 | 122.501578854493 |
| 61 | 1010 | 1033.5420490558 | -23.5420490558038 |
| 62 | 1010 | 1051.04292155415 | -41.0429215541499 |
| 63 | 1060 | 1078.20862102229 | -18.2086210222901 |
| 64 | 1130 | 1171.34438150378 | -41.344381503779 |
| 65 | 1000 | 991.874817229849 | 8.12518277015056 |
| 66 | 1000 | 975.706285491289 | 24.2937145087113 |
| 67 | 1070 | 1022.93957522951 | 47.0604247704858 |
| 68 | 1150 | 1165.38887901261 | -15.3888790126114 |
| 69 | 1080 | 1151.683266942 | -71.6832669420014 |
| 70 | 980 | 958.843978630053 | 21.1560213699471 |
| 71 | 1210 | 1159.08378094357 | 50.9162190564289 |
| 72 | 1020 | 1101.56368729733 | -81.5636872973337 |
| 73 | 980 | 1015.36464449199 | -35.364644491991 |
| 74 | 1030 | 1017.91563927965 | 12.0843607203459 |
| 75 | 1050 | 1063.96399304619 | -13.9639930461904 |
| 76 | 1190 | 1137.69136485892 | 52.3086351410798 |
| 77 | 970 | 999.598538639579 | -29.5985386395786 |
| 78 | 950 | 996.579218961782 | -46.5792189617823 |
| 79 | 1070 | 1062.11554244297 | 7.88445755702514 |
| 80 | 1170 | 1152.25434184901 | 17.7456581509932 |
| 81 | 1050 | 1091.71510740439 | -41.7151074043911 |
| 82 | 960 | 975.730069315382 | -15.7300693153823 |
| 83 | 1300 | 1200.17255171686 | 99.8274482831368 |
| 84 | 1080 | 1032.83707682167 | 47.1629231783272 |
| 85 | 1030 | 985.588867938086 | 44.4111320619138 |
| 86 | 1030 | 1028.13715880109 | 1.86284119890684 |
| 87 | 1070 | 1052.87142679439 | 17.1285732056085 |
| 88 | 1260 | 1182.05898637574 | 77.9410136242589 |
| 89 | 990 | 976.638322145988 | 13.3616778540123 |
| 90 | 950 | 960.291730305302 | -10.2917303053019 |
| 91 | 1080 | 1071.79104422158 | 8.20895577841839 |
| 92 | 1190 | 1170.77698519846 | 19.2230148015417 |
| 93 | 1050 | 1061.62945564139 | -11.6294556413873 |
| 94 | 950 | 968.057854944311 | -18.0578549443105 |
| 95 | 1250 | 1289.02847828951 | -39.0284782895126 |
| 96 | 1140 | 1077.87009696421 | 62.1299030357898 |
| 97 | 1080 | 1028.82762257036 | 51.1723774296436 |
| 98 | 1020 | 1036.57732006588 | -16.5773200658791 |
| 99 | 1140 | 1074.28901012729 | 65.7109898727067 |
| 100 | 1320 | 1254.60313082944 | 65.3968691705584 |
| 101 | 1100 | 996.089673429595 | 103.910326570405 |
| 102 | 1040 | 961.221755725234 | 78.7782442747657 |
| 103 | 1090 | 1089.36722528181 | 0.632774718194014 |
| 104 | 1280 | 1198.38722593377 | 81.6127740662255 |
| 105 | 1030 | 1065.00986565964 | -35.0098656596447 |
| 106 | 930 | 967.051114329517 | -37.0511143295165 |
| 107 | 1280 | 1271.54840989912 | 8.45159010088491 |
| 108 | 1020 | 1145.54304951419 | -125.543049514192 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1087.29068242739 | 997.427776585279 | 1177.15358826949 |
| 110 | 1039.16683544815 | 949.301982427951 | 1129.03168846835 |
| 111 | 1145.69153228241 | 1055.82290400107 | 1235.56016056376 |
| 112 | 1325.84718114114 | 1235.97235003992 | 1415.72201224235 |
| 113 | 1099.193352303 | 1009.30929168129 | 1189.0774129247 |
| 114 | 1043.00413510221 | 953.107219632912 | 1132.9010505715 |
| 115 | 1105.78029627134 | 1015.86630273745 | 1195.69428980524 |
| 116 | 1281.64763181047 | 1191.71174010196 | 1371.58352351897 |
| 117 | 1050.78181687515 | 960.818611284932 | 1140.74502246536 |
| 118 | 950.872788944953 | 860.876259801874 | 1040.86931808803 |
| 119 | 1292.93485585673 | 1202.8984015329 | 1382.97131018056 |
| 120 | 1055.4976165725 | 965.414045901251 | 1145.58118724376 |
