| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.247959489735643 |
| beta | 0.0345337296488601 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 110.643162393162 | 4.35683760683759 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.073143387587 | 3.92685661241256 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.430132053629 | 3.56986794637135 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.062503983317 | 2.93749601668338 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.06322697046 | 1.93677302953969 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.499062384579 | 1.50093761542058 |
| 19 | 170 | 160.131347416214 | 9.86865258378597 |
| 20 | 170 | 163.506325051358 | 6.49367494864174 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.850050071909 | 4.14994992809113 |
| 22 | 133 | 138.731495445679 | -5.73149544567931 |
| 23 | 114 | 123.321997399523 | -9.3219973995227 |
| 24 | 140 | 135.609043041043 | 4.39095695895716 |
| 25 | 145 | 136.860463840115 | 8.13953615988541 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.177864159562 | 0.822135840437994 |
| 27 | 178 | 163.742778738726 | 14.2572212612745 |
| 28 | 163 | 160.88736830728 | 2.11263169271959 |
| 29 | 172 | 151.26166711948 | 20.7383328805197 |
| 30 | 178 | 180.523451938489 | -2.52345193848936 |
| 31 | 199 | 198.907941418777 | 0.0920585812226307 |
| 32 | 199 | 197.694112643343 | 1.30588735665677 |
| 33 | 184 | 185.317990243195 | -1.31799024319454 |
| 34 | 162 | 161.694628859308 | 0.305371140691875 |
| 35 | 146 | 145.415787851416 | 0.584212148584044 |
| 36 | 166 | 170.890657487436 | -4.89065748743621 |
| 37 | 171 | 172.999007307478 | -1.99900730747771 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.551972077215 | 2.4480279227848 |
| 39 | 193 | 202.890186966572 | -9.89018696657183 |
| 40 | 181 | 184.973617184964 | -3.97361718496438 |
| 41 | 183 | 187.853581322794 | -4.8535813227941 |
| 42 | 218 | 193.064187605336 | 24.9358123946638 |
| 43 | 230 | 220.247948846114 | 9.75205115388604 |
| 44 | 242 | 222.448490221367 | 19.5515097786325 |
| 45 | 209 | 212.885752351814 | -3.88575235181364 |
| 46 | 191 | 190.087007403602 | 0.912992596398141 |
| 47 | 172 | 174.414218571941 | -2.41421857194126 |
| 48 | 194 | 195.248286577793 | -1.24828657779278 |
| 49 | 196 | 200.685635881058 | -4.68563588105789 |
| 50 | 196 | 208.144971709427 | -12.144971709427 |
| 51 | 236 | 220.689112540809 | 15.3108874591913 |
| 52 | 235 | 213.78992052089 | 21.2100794791104 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.78733174053 | 6.21266825947021 |
| 54 | 243 | 253.774189579803 | -10.774189579803 |
| 55 | 264 | 261.00816897443 | 2.99183102556958 |
| 56 | 272 | 269.167807518786 | 2.83219248121361 |
| 57 | 237 | 237.956186784541 | -0.956186784540876 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.640392882199 | -8.64039288219948 |
| 59 | 180 | 199.162435425533 | -19.1624354255333 |
| 60 | 201 | 216.642919355327 | -15.6429193553267 |
| 61 | 204 | 215.725163322483 | -11.7251633224825 |
| 62 | 188 | 215.568185948207 | -27.5681859482072 |
| 63 | 235 | 244.542771479217 | -9.54277147921678 |
| 64 | 227 | 235.311347905091 | -8.31134790509122 |
| 65 | 234 | 224.851226946989 | 9.14877305301096 |
| 66 | 264 | 242.957703039886 | 21.0422969601136 |
| 67 | 302 | 267.87231929887 | 34.1276807011301 |
| 68 | 293 | 283.337779746877 | 9.66222025312345 |
| 69 | 259 | 250.734646991179 | 8.26535300882082 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.769483300911 | 0.230516699089094 |
| 71 | 203 | 202.497007296171 | 0.502992703828539 |
| 72 | 229 | 227.587791285749 | 1.41220871425136 |
| 73 | 242 | 234.078621708002 | 7.92137829199777 |
| 74 | 233 | 227.280122971018 | 5.71987702898187 |
| 75 | 267 | 278.751213081094 | -11.7512130810936 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.56592663095 | -1.56592663094966 |
| 77 | 270 | 275.634536741209 | -5.63453674120859 |
| 78 | 315 | 299.618595266555 | 15.3814047334446 |
| 79 | 364 | 333.520636813287 | 30.4793631867132 |
| 80 | 347 | 330.201563104207 | 16.7984368957929 |
| 81 | 312 | 298.8976475624 | 13.1023524376004 |
| 82 | 274 | 272.710985777355 | 1.28901422264494 |
| 83 | 237 | 247.536595543642 | -10.5365955436417 |
| 84 | 278 | 271.10995278984 | 6.89004721015959 |
| 85 | 284 | 284.437307658674 | -0.437307658673831 |
| 86 | 277 | 274.422083339496 | 2.57791666050406 |
| 87 | 317 | 312.459730593006 | 4.54026940699367 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.597926811577 | -3.59792681157694 |
| 89 | 318 | 318.709630586872 | -0.709630586872379 |
| 90 | 374 | 360.368584499748 | 13.6314155002521 |
| 91 | 413 | 405.824869710266 | 7.17513028973366 |
| 92 | 405 | 386.873019883062 | 18.1269801169384 |
| 93 | 355 | 353.564640637354 | 1.43535936264601 |
| 94 | 306 | 315.946740877588 | -9.94674087758841 |
| 95 | 271 | 279.342602124886 | -8.34260212488573 |
| 96 | 306 | 316.833910444741 | -10.8339104447409 |
| 97 | 315 | 320.372592752746 | -5.37259275274607 |
| 98 | 301 | 311.475546446947 | -10.4755464469467 |
| 99 | 356 | 347.714814000746 | 8.28518599925377 |
| 100 | 348 | 346.655993774084 | 1.34400622591573 |
| 101 | 355 | 352.202179299066 | 2.79782070093364 |
| 102 | 422 | 405.582887635468 | 16.4171123645322 |
| 103 | 465 | 446.96537959721 | 18.0346204027899 |
| 104 | 467 | 439.126322376371 | 27.8736776236287 |
| 105 | 404 | 395.949259167777 | 8.0507408322228 |
| 106 | 347 | 351.735857721497 | -4.73585772149727 |
| 107 | 305 | 317.998757011001 | -12.9987570110009 |
| 108 | 336 | 352.790665052809 | -16.7906650528091 |
| 109 | 340 | 359.23714047618 | -19.2371404761804 |
| 110 | 318 | 343.223593245563 | -25.2235932455632 |
| 111 | 362 | 389.947459573453 | -27.9474595734532 |
| 112 | 348 | 374.40678987984 | -26.4067898798402 |
| 113 | 363 | 373.650027638873 | -10.6500276388729 |
| 114 | 435 | 433.308118043725 | 1.69188195627532 |
| 115 | 491 | 471.499333939274 | 19.5006660607257 |
| 116 | 505 | 470.679272945314 | 34.3207270546858 |
| 117 | 404 | 413.504477870091 | -9.50447787009142 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.483041056434 | 4.51695894356567 |
| 119 | 310 | 316.066448406359 | -6.06644840635892 |
| 120 | 337 | 349.025200176064 | -12.025200176064 |
| 121 | 360 | 354.153856208751 | 5.84614379124855 |
| 122 | 342 | 339.413066656395 | 2.58693334360453 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.777674042408 | 15.2223259575921 |
| 124 | 396 | 387.262984667485 | 8.73701533251534 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.53409746256 | 12.4659025374404 |
| 126 | 472 | 482.867470544424 | -10.8674705444245 |
| 127 | 548 | 531.891710015522 | 16.1082899844776 |
| 128 | 559 | 541.901021739744 | 17.0989782602559 |
| 129 | 463 | 447.875390224938 | 15.1246097750616 |
| 130 | 407 | 406.094345030002 | 0.905654969998182 |
| 131 | 362 | 359.380907870102 | 2.61909212989843 |
| 132 | 405 | 390.644236750492 | 14.3557632495076 |
| 133 | 417 | 416.612314574268 | 0.387685425732286 |
| 134 | 391 | 398.878286514511 | -7.87828651451053 |
| 135 | 419 | 457.871953443464 | -38.8719534434644 |
| 136 | 461 | 436.325333374696 | 24.6746666253042 |
| 137 | 472 | 463.747561389848 | 8.25243861015156 |
| 138 | 535 | 520.847393660955 | 14.1526063390454 |
| 139 | 622 | 596.935578762725 | 25.0644212372754 |
| 140 | 606 | 610.560492406652 | -4.5604924066522 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.14372167159 | -2.1437216715903 |
| 142 | 461 | 453.70406881809 | 7.29593118191036 |
| 143 | 390 | 410.234924183382 | -20.2349241833824 |
| 144 | 432 | 444.833325554046 | -12.8333255540462 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 453.497721751322 | 428.41526696502 | 478.580176537624 |
| 146 | 429.39056925195 | 403.49600160324 | 455.28513690066 |
| 147 | 467.036052088741 | 440.301472551842 | 493.770631625639 |
| 148 | 503.257406653861 | 475.655792079981 | 530.859021227741 |
| 149 | 512.339520167002 | 483.844695250902 | 540.834345083101 |
| 150 | 571.88796574964 | 542.474571456703 | 601.301360042578 |
| 151 | 652.60953499138 | 622.252994696779 | 682.966075285982 |
| 152 | 637.462256917308 | 606.138741269289 | 668.785772565327 |
| 153 | 539.754768946303 | 507.441160256025 | 572.06837763658 |
| 154 | 490.724986086211 | 457.398842867374 | 524.051129305048 |
| 155 | 424.459265263963 | 390.098787394926 | 458.819743133001 |
| 156 | 469.531518789795 | 434.115513646617 | 504.947523932974 |
