| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.400851431469901 |
| beta | 0.0368982697385969 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 35998 | 36579.1669337607 | -581.16693376068 |
| 14 | 35335 | 35689.5399635761 | -354.539963576055 |
| 15 | 35043 | 35287.3878359651 | -244.387835965084 |
| 16 | 35335 | 35540.4006732962 | -205.400673296201 |
| 17 | 36368 | 36555.9202125406 | -187.920212540615 |
| 18 | 36218 | 36374.2506767915 | -156.250676791526 |
| 19 | 34822 | 34828.9231924415 | -6.92319244149985 |
| 20 | 33640 | 33989.3931115873 | -349.393111587349 |
| 21 | 33419 | 33846.9990295755 | -427.999029575491 |
| 22 | 32977 | 33585.5569038598 | -608.556903859811 |
| 23 | 33276 | 33313.7368984226 | -37.7368984226414 |
| 24 | 33640 | 33370.5477532183 | 269.452246781744 |
| 25 | 33497 | 33071.6925407069 | 425.307459293072 |
| 26 | 33198 | 32693.4246131314 | 504.575386868601 |
| 27 | 32614 | 32686.4836480036 | -72.483648003632 |
| 28 | 33198 | 33019.1422701804 | 178.85772981964 |
| 29 | 33718 | 34192.2278358073 | -474.227835807251 |
| 30 | 33568 | 33903.5936417367 | -335.593641736719 |
| 31 | 31873 | 32362.020414611 | -489.020414611023 |
| 32 | 31139 | 31103.0948362062 | 35.9051637938101 |
| 33 | 30405 | 31052.7945626103 | -647.794562610303 |
| 34 | 29814 | 30576.5582222407 | -762.558222240714 |
| 35 | 29743 | 30564.2268973031 | -821.226897303099 |
| 36 | 30184 | 30458.6525568761 | -274.652556876128 |
| 37 | 29593 | 29994.6508340664 | -401.650834066357 |
| 38 | 29372 | 29279.7356957344 | 92.2643042655654 |
| 39 | 29151 | 28703.0237082734 | 447.976291726627 |
| 40 | 30405 | 29343.8468085373 | 1061.15319146266 |
| 41 | 30548 | 30441.3028195331 | 106.697180466927 |
| 42 | 29814 | 30439.1843588241 | -625.184358824114 |
| 43 | 27826 | 28655.9082205165 | -829.908220516507 |
| 44 | 26943 | 27536.1090821396 | -593.109082139603 |
| 45 | 25547 | 26775.9896551198 | -1228.98965511977 |
| 46 | 24955 | 25941.3834710755 | -986.38347107554 |
| 47 | 25247 | 25744.2332080358 | -497.233208035843 |
| 48 | 25689 | 26040.8565226892 | -351.856522689202 |
| 49 | 25689 | 25413.5198284032 | 275.480171596821 |
| 50 | 25326 | 25219.6806137918 | 106.31938620823 |
| 51 | 25247 | 24815.6532816852 | 431.346718314759 |
| 52 | 26430 | 25770.8748194824 | 659.125180517636 |
| 53 | 27385 | 26083.0504527462 | 1301.94954725383 |
| 54 | 26943 | 26086.9575644496 | 856.04243555036 |
| 55 | 25468 | 24762.0944421972 | 705.905557802751 |
| 56 | 24735 | 24409.8432620785 | 325.156737921458 |
| 57 | 23189 | 23660.4438269297 | -471.443826929681 |
| 58 | 22234 | 23309.6815303395 | -1075.68153033948 |
| 59 | 22968 | 23403.312319276 | -435.312319275989 |
| 60 | 23702 | 23846.2774255036 | -144.277425503555 |
| 61 | 23702 | 23715.5057187745 | -13.505718774526 |
| 62 | 22747 | 23337.6880702404 | -590.688070240445 |
| 63 | 22676 | 22871.9091334764 | -195.909133476358 |
| 64 | 23922 | 23725.7950076623 | 196.204992337665 |
| 65 | 24735 | 24244.3363980404 | 490.663601959612 |
| 66 | 24442 | 23650.6549409235 | 791.345059076477 |
| 67 | 22968 | 22203.7277376153 | 764.272262384744 |
| 68 | 22013 | 21641.4353603116 | 371.564639688422 |
| 69 | 19947 | 20428.730453509 | -481.730453509001 |
| 70 | 19142 | 19707.0383888348 | -565.038388834771 |
| 71 | 19434 | 20391.8120860012 | -957.812086001177 |
| 72 | 20688 | 20794.7519806714 | -106.751980671412 |
| 73 | 20759 | 20752.9755394985 | 6.02446050145954 |
| 74 | 18921 | 20033.0589335063 | -1112.05893350627 |
| 75 | 19584 | 19582.9978439401 | 1.00215605992344 |
| 76 | 21201 | 20741.8418373918 | 459.158162608222 |
| 77 | 21935 | 21537.1934345597 | 397.806565440274 |
| 78 | 21493 | 21080.050140857 | 412.949859143038 |
| 79 | 19506 | 19453.2324883626 | 52.7675116373757 |
| 80 | 18109 | 18347.9289684212 | -238.928968421187 |
| 81 | 16492 | 16347.713413858 | 144.286586141985 |
| 82 | 15238 | 15804.7637134364 | -566.763713436354 |
| 83 | 15751 | 16231.2068625341 | -480.20686253408 |
| 84 | 16855 | 17320.2619148887 | -465.261914888699 |
| 85 | 16563 | 17181.7984514444 | -618.798451444429 |
| 86 | 14946 | 15511.733393138 | -565.733393137991 |
| 87 | 15459 | 15925.8479587634 | -466.847958763421 |
| 88 | 17076 | 17143.0285592124 | -67.0285592123691 |
| 89 | 17960 | 17654.2875311455 | 305.712468854501 |
| 90 | 17447 | 17131.5279284018 | 315.472071598178 |
| 91 | 15459 | 15210.6183189009 | 248.381681099079 |
| 92 | 14576 | 13972.6356571554 | 603.364342844588 |
| 93 | 13251 | 12515.7939280085 | 735.206071991533 |
| 94 | 11854 | 11768.5668023159 | 85.4331976840822 |
| 95 | 12075 | 12502.827316904 | -427.827316904044 |
| 96 | 13179 | 13617.1306472611 | -438.130647261058 |
| 97 | 13322 | 13393.2505044547 | -71.2505044547106 |
| 98 | 11997 | 11978.262218181 | 18.7377818189925 |
| 99 | 12218 | 12698.3522493321 | -480.352249332122 |
| 100 | 14063 | 14161.9134101866 | -98.9134101865729 |
| 101 | 14504 | 14895.4895010243 | -391.489501024265 |
| 102 | 13764 | 14100.5617742269 | -336.561774226931 |
| 103 | 11042 | 11869.9011316021 | -827.901131602121 |
| 104 | 9646 | 10389.0720938376 | -743.07209383762 |
| 105 | 7801 | 8427.48318138887 | -626.483181388874 |
| 106 | 5963 | 6680.95111793313 | -717.951117933126 |
| 107 | 6554 | 6709.61257729581 | -155.612577295813 |
| 108 | 7359 | 7854.84460351474 | -495.844603514735 |
| 109 | 7217 | 7754.77607335814 | -537.776073358142 |
| 110 | 5813 | 6126.92706908066 | -313.927069080661 |
| 111 | 6625 | 6329.94885794505 | 295.051142054952 |
| 112 | 8613 | 8259.64890752688 | 353.35109247312 |
| 113 | 9496 | 8932.68744005857 | 563.312559941431 |
| 114 | 9055 | 8500.9936834552 | 554.006316544797 |
| 115 | 7288 | 6293.69573765668 | 994.304262343319 |
| 116 | 5892 | 5581.83974998347 | 310.160250016534 |
| 117 | 4417 | 4115.58689235116 | 301.41310764884 |
| 118 | 2721 | 2703.21704161456 | 17.7829583854427 |
| 119 | 3021 | 3391.6214703919 | -370.621470391897 |
| 120 | 3534 | 4271.53578539867 | -737.535785398671 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 4070.60547409522 | 3059.44059392121 | 5081.77035426923 |
| 122 | 2821.54134193715 | 1726.51074632347 | 3916.57193755083 |
| 123 | 3549.01063082272 | 2370.65387064479 | 4727.36739100065 |
| 124 | 5424.74628104868 | 4163.31863063459 | 6686.17393146278 |
| 125 | 6106.09225791656 | 4761.63528582797 | 7450.54923000514 |
| 126 | 5458.83685503459 | 4031.2281875374 | 6886.44552253179 |
| 127 | 3300.89323564888 | 1789.88266456516 | 4811.90380673259 |
| 128 | 1773.48324277748 | 178.719554769315 | 3368.24693078564 |
| 129 | 165.992059716155 | -1512.95662534008 | 1844.94074477239 |
| 130 | -1553.26369016352 | -3316.8942356196 | 210.366855292569 |
| 131 | -1121.08999161225 | -2969.9519706635 | 727.771987438999 |
| 132 | -323.356404696447 | -2258.04237217277 | 1611.32956277988 |
