| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.405341516397662 |
| beta | 0.0645237591066993 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 41873 | 41871.0961538462 | 1.90384615382209 |
| 14 | 41873 | 41779.2221424064 | 93.7778575935663 |
| 15 | 41558 | 41405.4161630194 | 152.583836980608 |
| 16 | 40733 | 40576.4790569926 | 156.520943007432 |
| 17 | 44991 | 44877.2314970229 | 113.768502977058 |
| 18 | 45640 | 45534.1717842916 | 105.828215708381 |
| 19 | 44660 | 43083.7447247241 | 1576.2552752759 |
| 20 | 42364 | 42254.4850959858 | 109.514904014184 |
| 21 | 43346 | 42622.433971141 | 723.566028858972 |
| 22 | 41873 | 43127.2491875559 | -1254.24918755586 |
| 23 | 42538 | 42953.2366197872 | -415.236619787174 |
| 24 | 42855 | 43172.2838475371 | -317.283847537095 |
| 25 | 43186 | 43504.2025801328 | -318.202580132849 |
| 26 | 42364 | 43356.2197803188 | -992.219780318759 |
| 27 | 42538 | 42567.7899674447 | -29.7899674446817 |
| 28 | 41382 | 41653.1072084585 | -271.107208458525 |
| 29 | 44991 | 45729.7536375459 | -738.753637545895 |
| 30 | 46131 | 45988.7650829425 | 142.234917057474 |
| 31 | 45151 | 44380.8048175463 | 770.195182453732 |
| 32 | 43346 | 42284.8318612968 | 1061.16813870324 |
| 33 | 45309 | 43360.7915996777 | 1948.20840032228 |
| 34 | 43186 | 43175.0256923027 | 10.9743076973318 |
| 35 | 45151 | 44035.0226093653 | 1115.97739063465 |
| 36 | 44991 | 44995.2664401623 | -4.26644016233331 |
| 37 | 45482 | 45523.9880451544 | -41.9880451543868 |
| 38 | 43678 | 45164.8508302686 | -1486.85083026862 |
| 39 | 45640 | 44813.0013244913 | 826.998675508745 |
| 40 | 45482 | 44189.275568356 | 1292.72443164404 |
| 41 | 48426 | 48749.7850095058 | -323.785009505817 |
| 42 | 47762 | 49839.8079810691 | -2077.80798106913 |
| 43 | 45151 | 47786.2509018059 | -2635.25090180586 |
| 44 | 43835 | 44474.729068255 | -639.72906825503 |
| 45 | 45640 | 45336.035301065 | 303.964698934957 |
| 46 | 43186 | 43236.0973910562 | -50.097391056217 |
| 47 | 44991 | 44631.142512449 | 359.857487550966 |
| 48 | 45309 | 44501.6650194171 | 807.334980582913 |
| 49 | 45973 | 45241.0856166163 | 731.914383383679 |
| 50 | 44502 | 44260.8387535551 | 241.161246444884 |
| 51 | 45309 | 45954.9647039048 | -645.964703904792 |
| 52 | 45800 | 44942.199574603 | 857.800425396956 |
| 53 | 47604 | 48284.8361999313 | -680.836199931262 |
| 54 | 46131 | 48097.4394800768 | -1966.43948007676 |
| 55 | 44169 | 45670.8018853701 | -1501.80188537011 |
| 56 | 42046 | 43948.2777569299 | -1902.27775692991 |
| 57 | 44011 | 44768.8849704824 | -757.884970482381 |
| 58 | 38611 | 41910.1063714955 | -3299.10637149555 |
| 59 | 41224 | 42029.1184087832 | -805.118408783157 |
| 60 | 42695 | 41460.1971390964 | 1234.80286090356 |
| 61 | 44169 | 42105.8918120684 | 2063.10818793155 |
| 62 | 42046 | 41186.0718966139 | 859.928103386097 |
| 63 | 42046 | 42432.325445505 | -386.325445505048 |
| 64 | 42046 | 42254.6728995362 | -208.672899536243 |
| 65 | 43186 | 44057.8108966109 | -871.810896610856 |
| 66 | 41558 | 42831.2651329706 | -1273.26513297061 |
| 67 | 39420 | 40782.7857848316 | -1362.78578483158 |
| 68 | 37631 | 38702.9853460851 | -1071.98534608512 |
| 69 | 38929 | 40386.9040899344 | -1457.90408993438 |
| 70 | 33862 | 35561.1480702292 | -1699.14807022921 |
| 71 | 36967 | 37681.5345498269 | -714.534549826865 |
| 72 | 38771 | 38234.5301306554 | 536.469869344604 |
| 73 | 39102 | 38943.598890824 | 158.40110917596 |
| 74 | 37298 | 36340.3035158453 | 957.696484154701 |
| 75 | 37455 | 36691.7110932468 | 763.288906753194 |
| 76 | 36967 | 36922.3744518722 | 44.6255481278276 |
| 77 | 38611 | 38277.1558839606 | 333.844116039429 |
| 78 | 37455 | 37175.4285699953 | 279.571430004689 |
| 79 | 35178 | 35618.6018533232 | -440.601853323213 |
| 80 | 33531 | 34025.104459689 | -494.104459689021 |
| 81 | 36315 | 35668.4631155134 | 646.536884486566 |
| 82 | 30269 | 31561.9971467506 | -1292.99714675062 |
| 83 | 34195 | 34452.8753108064 | -257.875310806434 |
| 84 | 35984 | 35967.190839267 | 16.8091607330425 |
| 85 | 35984 | 36259.503064035 | -275.503064035023 |
| 86 | 33862 | 33962.9930105513 | -100.993010551298 |
| 87 | 31900 | 33749.3314562978 | -1849.33145629783 |
| 88 | 31742 | 32404.968954124 | -662.968954124 |
| 89 | 33531 | 33537.7495960244 | -6.74959602444142 |
| 90 | 31900 | 32149.614218601 | -249.614218601018 |
| 91 | 28798 | 29820.1114522608 | -1022.11145226081 |
| 92 | 26660 | 27813.961419273 | -1153.96141927302 |
| 93 | 28956 | 29705.7598251896 | -749.759825189616 |
| 94 | 23558 | 23681.0526182465 | -123.052618246482 |
| 95 | 28464 | 27493.396920736 | 970.603079264027 |
| 96 | 31075 | 29532.8340802023 | 1542.16591979766 |
| 97 | 31900 | 30173.3300908483 | 1726.66990915172 |
| 98 | 30096 | 28748.2422076195 | 1347.75779238051 |
| 99 | 27816 | 28076.1305270965 | -260.130527096477 |
| 100 | 29447 | 28116.9571940983 | 1330.04280590171 |
| 101 | 30096 | 30535.4797267162 | -439.479726716152 |
| 102 | 29604 | 28903.8667346922 | 700.133265307846 |
| 103 | 24696 | 26601.1512471624 | -1905.15124716245 |
| 104 | 22418 | 24236.7548876324 | -1818.75488763237 |
| 105 | 24047 | 26160.1517587612 | -2113.15175876118 |
| 106 | 19140 | 19980.5285375869 | -840.528537586881 |
| 107 | 24207 | 24158.6833050265 | 48.3166949735169 |
| 108 | 26011 | 26146.3241742285 | -135.324174228503 |
| 109 | 27482 | 26154.8673066429 | 1327.13269335707 |
| 110 | 25029 | 24270.3441758116 | 758.655824188445 |
| 111 | 22733 | 22315.730192243 | 417.269807757013 |
| 112 | 24047 | 23506.8918485954 | 540.108151404598 |
| 113 | 24696 | 24462.4458560571 | 233.554143942896 |
| 114 | 23398 | 23708.4109734179 | -310.410973417867 |
| 115 | 18491 | 19347.4844861228 | -856.484486122834 |
| 116 | 16353 | 17387.6186982753 | -1034.6186982753 |
| 117 | 18316 | 19402.3874149899 | -1086.3874149899 |
| 118 | 12918 | 14371.1792525412 | -1453.17925254116 |
| 119 | 18807 | 18788.98589223 | 18.0141077700282 |
| 120 | 22418 | 20613.773009232 | 1804.22699076802 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 22287.5192087807 | 20258.8155650622 | 24316.2228524993 |
| 122 | 19501.654541525 | 17292.1471078641 | 21711.1619751859 |
| 123 | 16991.3257952801 | 14594.6789105495 | 19387.9726800106 |
| 124 | 18030.2922279183 | 15440.4566020969 | 20620.1278537396 |
| 125 | 18514.3916526754 | 15725.5656527002 | 21303.2176526506 |
| 126 | 17265.8743109047 | 14272.4728208169 | 20259.2758009925 |
| 127 | 12637.8217725939 | 9434.45086687272 | 15841.192678315 |
| 128 | 10873.3750568422 | 7454.81117458118 | 14291.9389391031 |
| 129 | 13257.9719325024 | 9619.14456974181 | 16896.799295263 |
| 130 | 8458.65831628987 | 4594.63549558503 | 12322.6811369947 |
| 131 | 14388.0156327911 | 10293.991586863 | 18482.0396787191 |
| 132 | 17314.8755668615 | 12986.1602045649 | 21643.5909291581 |
