Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.225679028753517 |
beta | 0.000941496286984221 |
gamma | 0.443442884267436 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 37702 | 41487.9961256583 | -3785.99612565827 |
14 | 30364 | 32384.2423306438 | -2020.24233064382 |
15 | 32609 | 34048.8239474293 | -1439.82394742926 |
16 | 30212 | 30953.0817784325 | -741.081778432501 |
17 | 29965 | 30167.1615625248 | -202.161562524776 |
18 | 28352 | 28194.287671247 | 157.712328752958 |
19 | 25814 | 22076.544344474 | 3737.45565552597 |
20 | 22414 | 20801.9207532687 | 1612.07924673129 |
21 | 20506 | 21128.7820231167 | -622.782023116659 |
22 | 28806 | 26754.5259191584 | 2051.47408084161 |
23 | 22228 | 22076.0673310002 | 151.932668999838 |
24 | 13971 | 13470.8643970095 | 500.13560299046 |
25 | 36845 | 37059.4733194596 | -214.473319459634 |
26 | 35338 | 29795.4839704098 | 5542.51602959024 |
27 | 35022 | 33348.7244194949 | 1673.27558050511 |
28 | 34777 | 31163.7441308349 | 3613.25586916514 |
29 | 26887 | 31542.0186569781 | -4655.01865697814 |
30 | 23970 | 28668.3449958555 | -4698.34499585547 |
31 | 22780 | 22752.2259942235 | 27.7740057765332 |
32 | 17351 | 20061.3545527705 | -2710.35455277052 |
33 | 21382 | 18709.0425300722 | 2672.95746992783 |
34 | 24561 | 25498.9960342699 | -937.996034269949 |
35 | 17409 | 20022.1189854634 | -2613.11898546338 |
36 | 11514 | 11945.671121086 | -431.671121085963 |
37 | 31514 | 31811.1427395241 | -297.142739524053 |
38 | 27071 | 27135.2239715722 | -64.2239715721844 |
39 | 29462 | 27863.0241804413 | 1598.97581955868 |
40 | 26105 | 26585.9480635962 | -480.948063596243 |
41 | 22397 | 23768.4474504729 | -1371.44745047293 |
42 | 23843 | 21869.5638551769 | 1973.43614482306 |
43 | 21705 | 19509.1082062677 | 2195.89179373231 |
44 | 18089 | 16761.2809759648 | 1327.7190240352 |
45 | 20764 | 18040.7422278922 | 2723.25777210781 |
46 | 25316 | 23196.8285072121 | 2119.17149278791 |
47 | 17704 | 18102.3007276656 | -398.300727665624 |
48 | 15548 | 11461.2235378711 | 4086.77646212886 |
49 | 28029 | 33585.8002125544 | -5556.80021255436 |
50 | 29383 | 27714.048618985 | 1668.95138101496 |
51 | 36438 | 29460.2103780279 | 6977.78962197209 |
52 | 32034 | 28524.1330124572 | 3509.86698754283 |
53 | 22679 | 25984.1070779233 | -3305.10707792329 |
54 | 24319 | 24768.360331227 | -449.360331226999 |
55 | 18004 | 21738.5190502819 | -3734.51905028195 |
56 | 17537 | 17326.1475284397 | 210.852471560258 |
57 | 20366 | 18790.7238567439 | 1575.27614325608 |
58 | 22782 | 23364.3485694365 | -582.348569436483 |
59 | 19169 | 17096.1467294071 | 2072.85327059293 |
60 | 13807 | 12536.4463062619 | 1270.55369373809 |
61 | 29743 | 29375.0615334878 | 367.938466512169 |
62 | 25591 | 27375.1673514994 | -1784.16735149938 |
63 | 29096 | 29845.1799392567 | -749.17993925673 |
64 | 26482 | 26329.5061513027 | 152.493848697286 |
65 | 22405 | 21403.1889229486 | 1001.81107705142 |
66 | 27044 | 22062.6515825365 | 4981.34841746355 |
67 | 17970 | 19291.1739870888 | -1321.1739870888 |
68 | 18730 | 16843.7925925233 | 1886.20740747672 |
69 | 19684 | 19125.967097602 | 558.032902398038 |
70 | 19785 | 22648.0790967242 | -2863.07909672418 |
71 | 18479 | 16985.577388574 | 1493.42261142599 |
72 | 10698 | 12280.7803828344 | -1582.78038283436 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 26498.981865146 | 23698.8806723055 | 29299.0830579865 |
74 | 23934.8633943201 | 20956.2883634231 | 26913.4384252172 |
75 | 26836.6936186315 | 23556.4925784432 | 30116.8946588198 |
76 | 24042.2333148094 | 20686.841609157 | 27397.6250204618 |
77 | 19769.0075844744 | 16442.3106804039 | 23095.704488545 |
78 | 21288.4567562023 | 17662.4973863149 | 24914.4161260897 |
79 | 16072.176615048 | 12656.4439046984 | 19487.9093253977 |
80 | 15124.8889897861 | 11597.6008055927 | 18652.1771739794 |
81 | 16273.7807682921 | 12429.5244948387 | 20118.0370417456 |
82 | 18070.9265236957 | 13805.6598493781 | 22336.1931980133 |
83 | 15008.4341904281 | 11001.7108928525 | 19015.1574880036 |
84 | 9842.62588615953 | 7798.83392099691 | 11886.4178513221 |