| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.845185256134635 |
| beta | 0.0537363877757178 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 116566 | 124441.288382663 | -7875.28838266317 |
| 14 | 111272 | 112280.983690109 | -1008.98369010871 |
| 15 | 104609 | 104768.742911635 | -159.742911634661 |
| 16 | 101802 | 101822.070909056 | -20.0709090562304 |
| 17 | 94542 | 94257.0435184636 | 284.956481536399 |
| 18 | 93051 | 92430.5383011475 | 620.461698852509 |
| 19 | 124129 | 124177.399370929 | -48.3993709289789 |
| 20 | 130374 | 128350.530414923 | 2023.46958507688 |
| 21 | 123946 | 128296.774481308 | -4350.77448130763 |
| 22 | 114971 | 111078.975006398 | 3892.02499360248 |
| 23 | 105531 | 103696.717262674 | 1834.28273732608 |
| 24 | 104919 | 98799.7803064464 | 6119.21969355359 |
| 25 | 104782 | 103813.2864046 | 968.713595400302 |
| 26 | 101281 | 100925.800844964 | 355.199155036069 |
| 27 | 94545 | 95631.5049571612 | -1086.50495716117 |
| 28 | 93248 | 92478.068050529 | 769.931949470963 |
| 29 | 84031 | 86589.4162256262 | -2558.41622562622 |
| 30 | 87486 | 82786.5194644099 | 4699.48053559006 |
| 31 | 115867 | 116326.338525024 | -459.338525024359 |
| 32 | 120327 | 120736.874772805 | -409.874772805284 |
| 33 | 117008 | 118269.894731633 | -1261.89473163313 |
| 34 | 108811 | 106151.829976496 | 2659.17002350358 |
| 35 | 104519 | 98501.9446679401 | 6017.05533205991 |
| 36 | 106758 | 98562.6953343167 | 8195.3046656833 |
| 37 | 109337 | 105357.425956008 | 3979.57404399214 |
| 38 | 109078 | 105760.204060035 | 3317.79593996522 |
| 39 | 108293 | 103433.425187509 | 4859.57481249084 |
| 40 | 106534 | 106774.073454387 | -240.073454386991 |
| 41 | 99197 | 99812.717467086 | -615.717467085968 |
| 42 | 103493 | 100121.605584928 | 3371.39441507222 |
| 43 | 130676 | 138678.946345694 | -8002.94634569396 |
| 44 | 137448 | 138919.849401794 | -1471.84940179368 |
| 45 | 134704 | 136582.69080579 | -1878.69080579036 |
| 46 | 123725 | 124301.460754133 | -576.460754133397 |
| 47 | 118277 | 114182.418214549 | 4094.58178545053 |
| 48 | 121225 | 113189.424350033 | 8035.5756499672 |
| 49 | 120528 | 119931.894920116 | 596.105079883899 |
| 50 | 118240 | 117699.584728776 | 540.415271224279 |
| 51 | 112514 | 113310.942454012 | -796.942454012169 |
| 52 | 107304 | 111226.493159178 | -3922.4931591783 |
| 53 | 100001 | 101045.55253933 | -1044.55253932974 |
| 54 | 102082 | 101629.494350386 | 452.505649613508 |
| 55 | 130455 | 135264.7899828 | -4809.78998279985 |
| 56 | 135574 | 139238.39200175 | -3664.39200175041 |
| 57 | 132540 | 134884.028550864 | -2344.02855086356 |
| 58 | 119920 | 122429.095776971 | -2509.09577697136 |
| 59 | 112454 | 111428.348381734 | 1025.65161826572 |
| 60 | 109415 | 108253.597059777 | 1161.40294022311 |
| 61 | 109843 | 107551.098381033 | 2291.90161896718 |
| 62 | 106365 | 106483.512106663 | -118.512106662674 |
| 63 | 102304 | 101325.299820337 | 978.700179663312 |
| 64 | 97968 | 99986.8885850428 | -2018.88858504283 |
| 65 | 92462 | 92060.8309817527 | 401.169018247252 |
| 66 | 92286 | 93687.6407414528 | -1401.64074145276 |
| 67 | 120092 | 121398.341395226 | -1306.34139522586 |
| 68 | 126656 | 127498.508282391 | -842.508282391485 |
| 69 | 124144 | 125556.73233775 | -1412.73233774953 |
| 70 | 114045 | 114316.662566801 | -271.662566800558 |
| 71 | 108120 | 106076.764725132 | 2043.23527486816 |
| 72 | 105698 | 103918.65862313 | 1779.34137687003 |
| 73 | 111203 | 103965.183200114 | 7237.81679988586 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 106930.668108545 | 100558.318236729 | 113303.01798036 |
| 75 | 102244.32785975 | 93874.3579369752 | 110614.297782526 |
| 76 | 99789.5941049468 | 89676.2857318933 | 109902.902478 |
| 77 | 94095.3480556903 | 82707.6904385079 | 105483.005672873 |
| 78 | 95363.1759785502 | 82161.3178772837 | 108565.034079817 |
| 79 | 125648.604666046 | 106908.822780841 | 144388.386551252 |
| 80 | 133772.140945605 | 112264.717970139 | 155279.563921072 |
| 81 | 132931.259225747 | 109966.68648673 | 155895.831964763 |
| 82 | 122945.592516372 | 100107.325339894 | 145783.85969285 |
| 83 | 115253.215466932 | 92273.2964869415 | 138233.134446922 |
| 84 | 111505.943955502 | 87727.8110356374 | 135284.076875368 |
| 85 | 111144.894293793 | 86693.574695733 | 135596.213891853 |
