Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.830113043957641 |
beta | 0.00137966518934271 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 166.19 | 165.634967948718 | 0.555032051282041 |
14 | 166.19 | 166.129492727238 | 0.0605072727619813 |
15 | 166.35 | 166.363575334201 | -0.0135753342007945 |
16 | 166.52 | 166.500312121928 | 0.0196878780724319 |
17 | 167.17 | 167.088433684141 | 0.081566315858737 |
18 | 167.16 | 167.044264760814 | 0.115735239186137 |
19 | 167.16 | 167.63109245547 | -0.471092455469886 |
20 | 167.16 | 167.336913961045 | -0.176913961044846 |
21 | 167.39 | 166.957150923081 | 0.432849076919297 |
22 | 168.46 | 167.700722535876 | 0.759277464124125 |
23 | 168.55 | 167.803636194637 | 0.746363805363501 |
24 | 168.58 | 168.572518184247 | 0.00748181575343665 |
25 | 168.58 | 168.70151253746 | -0.121512537460376 |
26 | 169.21 | 168.552065148155 | 0.657934851845027 |
27 | 169.29 | 169.271828362866 | 0.018171637134401 |
28 | 169.24 | 169.442939920719 | -0.202939920718791 |
29 | 169.53 | 169.858882821146 | -0.328882821146379 |
30 | 169.57 | 169.481444729788 | 0.0885552702122823 |
31 | 169.57 | 169.947629638378 | -0.377629638377755 |
32 | 169.67 | 169.782734008892 | -0.112734008891749 |
33 | 170.04 | 169.561632949084 | 0.478367050916091 |
34 | 170.39 | 170.40029225792 | -0.0102922579203835 |
35 | 170.57 | 169.863147525697 | 0.706852474303219 |
36 | 170.48 | 170.474624316157 | 0.00537568384277165 |
37 | 170.48 | 170.580873555916 | -0.100873555915854 |
38 | 170.48 | 170.581918108272 | -0.101918108272116 |
39 | 170.49 | 170.562301110736 | -0.0723011107362197 |
40 | 170.72 | 170.620713541067 | 0.0992864589325393 |
41 | 171.11 | 171.266456028845 | -0.156456028845241 |
42 | 171.07 | 171.103580013567 | -0.0335800135668762 |
43 | 171.07 | 171.389551276015 | -0.319551276015318 |
44 | 171.07 | 171.318307261859 | -0.24830726185931 |
45 | 171.05 | 171.085367864041 | -0.0353678640409214 |
46 | 172.28 | 171.414246334909 | 0.86575366509129 |
47 | 172.74 | 171.72684966086 | 1.01315033914022 |
48 | 172.86 | 172.474464718597 | 0.385535281402923 |
49 | 172.86 | 172.879722598607 | -0.0197225986067906 |
50 | 173.24 | 172.949530663202 | 0.290469336798395 |
51 | 173.2 | 173.262697036265 | -0.0626970362651491 |
52 | 173.38 | 173.360269315934 | 0.0197306840657916 |
53 | 172.89 | 173.898469982948 | -1.00846998294796 |
54 | 172.98 | 173.050171088499 | -0.0701710884985118 |
55 | 172.98 | 173.258112913662 | -0.278112913662426 |
56 | 172.69 | 173.234346390366 | -0.544346390366286 |
57 | 172.77 | 172.792473166497 | -0.022473166496809 |
58 | 172.65 | 173.285795745544 | -0.635795745544186 |
59 | 172.3 | 172.375915658196 | -0.0759156581956688 |
60 | 172.17 | 172.110543497016 | 0.0594565029842045 |
61 | 172.17 | 172.173581934109 | -0.00358193410875174 |
62 | 173.07 | 172.306815456139 | 0.763184543861115 |
63 | 173.27 | 172.950261236528 | 0.31973876347152 |
64 | 173.05 | 173.377610559833 | -0.32761055983292 |
65 | 173.41 | 173.45071174905 | -0.0407117490498194 |
66 | 173.37 | 173.564185584263 | -0.194185584262499 |
67 | 173.37 | 173.63273197733 | -0.262731977329537 |
68 | 173.08 | 173.575398612595 | -0.495398612594499 |
69 | 173.97 | 173.261767927422 | 0.708232072577516 |
70 | 175.23 | 174.257250707826 | 0.972749292173717 |
71 | 174.9 | 174.779391150364 | 0.120608849635602 |
72 | 174.83 | 174.702009574693 | 0.12799042530736 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 174.813163060571 | 174.011952388146 | 175.614373732996 |
74 | 175.081571272178 | 174.039692243727 | 176.123450300629 |
75 | 175.017215551853 | 173.780159207387 | 176.25427189632 |
76 | 175.069866759007 | 173.664046822458 | 176.475686695555 |
77 | 175.464734726223 | 173.907950387345 | 177.021519065101 |
78 | 175.587049952229 | 173.892336573886 | 177.281763330571 |
79 | 175.806488829727 | 173.983919421205 | 177.629058238249 |
80 | 175.929368217224 | 173.98702514654 | 177.871711287907 |
81 | 176.233665442019 | 174.178217270743 | 178.289113613295 |
82 | 176.687572349815 | 174.524640849606 | 178.850503850024 |
83 | 176.257738085813 | 173.992144398138 | 178.523331773489 |
84 | 176.081638148891 | 173.717574884525 | 178.445701413258 |