Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999954828396838 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.5 | 0.51 | -0.01 |
3 | 0.47 | 0.500000451716032 | -0.0300004517160316 |
4 | 0.47 | 0.4700013551685 | -1.35516849958384e-06 |
5 | 0.44 | 0.470000000061215 | -0.0300000000612151 |
6 | 0.43 | 0.440001355148098 | -0.0100013551480976 |
7 | 0.45 | 0.430000451777246 | 0.0199995482227542 |
8 | 0.46 | 0.449999096588344 | 0.0100009034116558 |
9 | 0.46 | 0.45999954824316 | 4.51756840158524e-07 |
10 | 0.45 | 0.459999999979593 | -0.00999999997959344 |
11 | 0.45 | 0.450000451716031 | -4.51716030691607e-07 |
12 | 0.45 | 0.450000000020405 | -2.04047334584345e-11 |
13 | 0.44 | 0.450000000000001 | -0.010000000000001 |
14 | 0.43 | 0.440000451716032 | -0.0100004517160316 |
15 | 0.45 | 0.430000451736436 | 0.0199995482635636 |
16 | 0.45 | 0.449999096588342 | 9.03411657593445e-07 |
17 | 0.44 | 0.449999999959191 | -0.00999999995919143 |
18 | 0.47 | 0.44000045171603 | 0.0299995482839702 |
19 | 0.46 | 0.46999864487231 | -0.00999864487230984 |
20 | 0.48 | 0.460000451654818 | 0.0199995483451816 |
21 | 0.49 | 0.479999096588339 | 0.0100009034116613 |
22 | 0.52 | 0.48999954824316 | 0.0300004517568402 |
23 | 0.56 | 0.519998644831499 | 0.0400013551685015 |
24 | 0.58 | 0.559998193074658 | 0.0200018069253415 |
25 | 0.58 | 0.579999096486315 | 9.03513684979984e-07 |
26 | 0.55 | 0.579999999959187 | -0.0299999999591868 |
27 | 0.55 | 0.550001355148093 | -1.35514809307402e-06 |
28 | 0.53 | 0.550000000061214 | -0.0200000000612143 |
29 | 0.56 | 0.530000903432066 | 0.029999096567934 |
30 | 0.57 | 0.559998644892715 | 0.0100013551072853 |
31 | 0.61 | 0.569999548222756 | 0.040000451777244 |
32 | 0.57 | 0.609998193115466 | -0.039998193115466 |
33 | 0.59 | 0.570001806782507 | 0.0199981932174934 |
34 | 0.53 | 0.589999096649552 | -0.0599990966495519 |
35 | 0.43 | 0.530002710255384 | -0.100002710255384 |
36 | 0.38 | 0.430004517282743 | -0.0500045172827428 |
37 | 0.4 | 0.380002258784211 | 0.019997741215789 |
38 | 0.45 | 0.39999909666997 | 0.0500009033300303 |
39 | 0.4 | 0.449997741379037 | -0.049997741379037 |
40 | 0.37 | 0.400002258478133 | -0.0300022584781326 |
41 | 0.37 | 0.370001355250114 | -1.35525011396576e-06 |
42 | 0.4 | 0.370000000061219 | 0.0299999999387812 |
43 | 0.41 | 0.399998644851908 | 0.010001355148092 |
44 | 0.43 | 0.409999548222754 | 0.0200004517772459 |
45 | 0.45 | 0.429999096547529 | 0.0200009034524707 |
46 | 0.44 | 0.449999096527126 | -0.00999909652712638 |
47 | 0.47 | 0.44000045167522 | 0.0299995483247797 |
48 | 0.47 | 0.469998644872308 | 1.35512769194879e-06 |
49 | 0.52 | 0.469999999938787 | 0.0500000000612134 |
50 | 0.55 | 0.519997741419839 | 0.0300022585801609 |
51 | 0.54 | 0.549998644749881 | -0.00999864474988144 |
52 | 0.54 | 0.540000451654813 | -4.51654812771984e-07 |
53 | 0.53 | 0.540000000020402 | -0.010000000020402 |
54 | 0.52 | 0.530000451716033 | -0.0100004517160326 |
55 | 0.5 | 0.520000451736436 | -0.0200004517364364 |
56 | 0.5 | 0.500000903452469 | -9.03452468947741e-07 |
57 | 0.53 | 0.50000000004081 | 0.0299999999591897 |
58 | 0.54 | 0.529998644851907 | 0.0100013551480931 |
59 | 0.59 | 0.539999548222754 | 0.0500004517772458 |
60 | 0.66 | 0.589997741399434 | 0.0700022586005656 |
61 | 0.67 | 0.659996837885754 | 0.010003162114246 |
62 | 0.61 | 0.669999548141131 | -0.0599995481411306 |
63 | 0.62 | 0.610002710275779 | 0.00999728972422143 |
64 | 0.65 | 0.619999548406396 | 0.0300004515936041 |
65 | 0.63 | 0.649998644831506 | -0.0199986448315059 |
66 | 0.58 | 0.630000903370848 | -0.0500009033708482 |
67 | 0.6 | 0.580002258620965 | 0.0199977413790352 |
68 | 0.6 | 0.599999096669962 | 9.0333003766041e-07 |
69 | 0.61 | 0.599999999959195 | 0.0100000000408049 |
70 | 0.61 | 0.609999548283967 | 4.51716033467164e-07 |
71 | 0.59 | 0.609999999979595 | -0.0199999999795952 |
72 | 0.6 | 0.590000903432062 | 0.00999909656793774 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.542719544132991 | 0.657279552516565 |
74 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.518995219112332 | 0.681003877537224 |
75 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.500790658490723 | 0.699208438158832 |
76 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.485443421063715 | 0.71455567558584 |
77 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.471922193714371 | 0.728076902935185 |
78 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.459698047139127 | 0.740301049510428 |
79 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.448456769856471 | 0.751542326793085 |
80 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.437993634306673 | 0.762005462342882 |
81 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.428166435544416 | 0.77183266110514 |
82 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.418871634631897 | 0.781127462017659 |
83 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.410031067808448 | 0.789968028841107 |
84 | 0.599999548324778 | 0.401584009465972 | 0.798415087183584 |