Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.384112312147484 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 32.74 | 32.42 | 0.319999999999993 |
4 | 32.87 | 32.5829159398872 | 0.287084060112797 |
5 | 32.95 | 32.8231884619978 | 0.126811538002194 |
6 | 32.94 | 32.9518983350668 | -0.0118983350668174 |
7 | 32.94 | 32.9373280380736 | 0.00267196192640995 |
8 | 32.97 | 32.9383543715471 | 0.0316456284528854 |
9 | 32.87 | 32.9805098470615 | -0.110509847061515 |
10 | 32.96 | 32.8380616541916 | 0.121938345808353 |
11 | 32.97 | 32.9748996741395 | -0.00489967413953707 |
12 | 32.99 | 32.983017648977 | 0.00698235102297673 |
13 | 32.99 | 33.0056996559727 | -0.0156996559726892 |
14 | 33.04 | 32.9996692248171 | 0.0403307751828947 |
15 | 33.23 | 33.0651607721233 | 0.164839227876698 |
16 | 33.03 | 33.3184775490756 | -0.288477549075623 |
17 | 33.05 | 33.0076697706976 | 0.0423302293024435 |
18 | 33.03 | 33.0439293329486 | -0.0139293329486421 |
19 | 33.04 | 33.0185789046631 | 0.021421095336926 |
20 | 33.11 | 33.0368070111217 | 0.0731929888783327 |
21 | 33.14 | 33.1349213393127 | 0.00507866068728902 |
22 | 33.08 | 33.1668721154119 | -0.0868721154119214 |
23 | 33.09 | 33.0735034662999 | 0.0164965337001064 |
24 | 33.07 | 33.0898399880019 | -0.0198399880018698 |
25 | 33.07 | 33.0622192043375 | 0.00778079566251222 |
26 | 33.02 | 33.0652079037498 | -0.0452079037497626 |
27 | 33 | 32.9978429913131 | 0.00215700868689339 |
28 | 33.08 | 32.9786715249071 | 0.101328475092849 |
29 | 33.35 | 33.0975930397614 | 0.252406960238559 |
30 | 33.36 | 33.4645456608608 | -0.104545660860794 |
31 | 33.36 | 33.4343883853426 | -0.0743883853425658 |
32 | 33.35 | 33.4058148906517 | -0.0558148906517104 |
33 | 33.41 | 33.3743757039512 | 0.0356242960487663 |
34 | 33.47 | 33.4480594346751 | 0.0219405653248543 |
35 | 33.47 | 33.5164870759519 | -0.0464870759519016 |
36 | 33.48 | 33.498630817723 | -0.018630817723043 |
37 | 33.48 | 33.5014744912502 | -0.0214744912502454 |
38 | 33.55 | 33.4932258747639 | 0.0567741252360818 |
39 | 33.68 | 33.5850335152785 | 0.0949664847215033 |
40 | 33.72 | 33.7515113113014 | -0.0315113113014007 |
41 | 33.79 | 33.7794074286586 | 0.0105925713413839 |
42 | 33.83 | 33.8534761657281 | -0.023476165728141 |
43 | 33.83 | 33.8844586814299 | -0.0544586814299493 |
44 | 33.84 | 33.8635404313894 | -0.0235404313893852 |
45 | 33.91 | 33.8644982618595 | 0.0455017381405298 |
46 | 34.06 | 33.9519760397033 | 0.108023960296656 |
47 | 34.16 | 34.1434693728602 | 0.0165306271397654 |
48 | 34.16 | 34.2498189902721 | -0.0898189902721285 |
49 | 34.16 | 34.2153184102439 | -0.0553184102439488 |
50 | 34.29 | 34.1940699277808 | 0.0959300722191756 |
51 | 34.48 | 34.3609178496254 | 0.119082150374588 |
52 | 34.48 | 34.5966587697413 | -0.116658769741285 |
53 | 34.39 | 34.5518486999637 | -0.161848699963677 |
54 | 34.29 | 34.3996806216026 | -0.109680621602571 |
55 | 34.29 | 34.257550944441 | 0.0324490555589705 |
56 | 34.25 | 34.2700150261988 | -0.0200150261987915 |
57 | 34.2 | 34.2223270082079 | -0.0223270082078741 |
58 | 34.1 | 34.1637509294618 | -0.0637509294618184 |
59 | 34.09 | 34.0392634125447 | 0.0507365874553187 |
60 | 34.06 | 34.0487519604626 | 0.011248039537378 |
61 | 34.06 | 34.0230724709365 | 0.0369275290635471 |
62 | 34.04 | 34.0372567895069 | 0.00274321049305115 |
63 | 34.19 | 34.0183104904321 | 0.171689509567862 |
64 | 34.21 | 34.2342585449237 | -0.0242585449237112 |
65 | 34.17 | 34.2449405391437 | -0.0749405391437321 |
66 | 34.08 | 34.1761549553797 | -0.0961549553796601 |
67 | 34.08 | 34.0492206531443 | 0.0307793468556596 |
68 | 34.08 | 34.0610433792315 | 0.0189566207685417 |
69 | 34.3 | 34.0683248506654 | 0.231675149334635 |
70 | 34.28 | 34.3773141279434 | -0.0973141279433989 |
71 | 34.45 | 34.3199345732545 | 0.130065426745553 |
72 | 34.41 | 34.5398943050521 | -0.12989430505214 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 34.4500003032038 | 34.2499264353725 | 34.650074171035 |
74 | 34.4900006064075 | 34.1483621364338 | 34.8316390763812 |
75 | 34.5300009096113 | 34.0381940606243 | 35.0218077585983 |
76 | 34.5700012128151 | 33.9163093494711 | 35.2236930761591 |
77 | 34.6100015160188 | 33.782447183893 | 35.4375558481447 |
78 | 34.6500018192226 | 33.6369443480274 | 35.6630592904178 |
79 | 34.6900021224263 | 33.4802736586156 | 35.8997305862371 |
80 | 34.7300024256301 | 33.3129170989018 | 36.1470877523584 |
81 | 34.7700027288339 | 33.1353280996959 | 36.4046773579719 |
82 | 34.8100030320376 | 32.9479219334035 | 36.6720841306718 |
83 | 34.8500033352414 | 32.7510756210414 | 36.9489310494414 |
84 | 34.8900036384452 | 32.545130968178 | 37.2348763087123 |