| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.321385303438058 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 31124 | 31525.9345619658 | -401.934561965812 |
| 14 | 26551 | 26724.2125178225 | -173.212517822503 |
| 15 | 30651 | 30670.7483772392 | -19.7483772391643 |
| 16 | 25859 | 25673.7303560441 | 185.26964395594 |
| 17 | 25100 | 24766.727113801 | 333.272886198978 |
| 18 | 25778 | 25361.3732718094 | 416.626728190593 |
| 19 | 20418 | 18397.058129619 | 2020.941870381 |
| 20 | 18688 | 18426.6796295451 | 261.320370454945 |
| 21 | 20424 | 19722.7429731146 | 701.257026885422 |
| 22 | 24776 | 23004.4871591712 | 1771.5128408288 |
| 23 | 19814 | 20134.737501415 | -320.737501415031 |
| 24 | 12738 | 12049.1943325485 | 688.805667451548 |
| 25 | 31566 | 33624.9698005357 | -2058.96980053568 |
| 26 | 30111 | 28445.9151240204 | 1665.08487597962 |
| 27 | 30019 | 33087.3957703486 | -3068.39577034863 |
| 28 | 31934 | 27249.7155238864 | 4684.28447611356 |
| 29 | 25826 | 27889.0667039736 | -2063.06670397365 |
| 30 | 26835 | 27770.1296778442 | -935.129677844183 |
| 31 | 20205 | 21460.0917263332 | -1255.09172633322 |
| 32 | 17789 | 19242.7391644698 | -1453.73916446982 |
| 33 | 20520 | 20286.1550596033 | 233.844940396742 |
| 34 | 22518 | 24143.9711948359 | -1625.97119483594 |
| 35 | 15572 | 18762.4882682183 | -3190.48826821828 |
| 36 | 11509 | 10439.7402095776 | 1069.25979042238 |
| 37 | 25447 | 30273.1072258916 | -4826.10722589158 |
| 38 | 24090 | 26731.933482557 | -2641.93348255698 |
| 39 | 27786 | 26776.9921943238 | 1009.00780567621 |
| 40 | 26195 | 27510.8122863765 | -1315.81228637647 |
| 41 | 20516 | 21642.9688741214 | -1126.96887412136 |
| 42 | 22759 | 22590.3145758145 | 168.685424185489 |
| 43 | 19028 | 16417.8956273621 | 2610.10437263786 |
| 44 | 16971 | 15307.9552156603 | 1663.04478433972 |
| 45 | 20036 | 18498.2790411795 | 1537.72095882048 |
| 46 | 22485 | 21513.043203967 | 971.956796033006 |
| 47 | 18730 | 15904.7918739856 | 2825.20812601436 |
| 48 | 14538 | 12406.1278626414 | 2131.87213735858 |
| 49 | 27561 | 28580.3201716153 | -1019.32017161532 |
| 50 | 25985 | 27744.8042429149 | -1759.80424291494 |
| 51 | 34670 | 30550.9487425155 | 4119.05125748448 |
| 52 | 32066 | 30706.6340117037 | 1359.36598829629 |
| 53 | 27186 | 25826.7054959104 | 1359.29450408957 |
| 54 | 29586 | 28452.3497563315 | 1133.65024366849 |
| 55 | 21359 | 24246.8390980803 | -2887.83909808031 |
| 56 | 21553 | 20727.2519006174 | 825.748099382614 |
| 57 | 19573 | 23563.4342871473 | -3990.43428714729 |
| 58 | 24256 | 24417.5947231011 | -161.594723101072 |
| 59 | 22380 | 19702.6801831285 | 2677.31981687155 |
| 60 | 16167 | 15685.9790511183 | 481.020948881684 |
| 61 | 27297 | 29191.1666373898 | -1894.16663738984 |
| 62 | 28287 | 27571.9845384709 | 715.015461529139 |
| 63 | 33474 | 35162.9774612737 | -1688.97746127374 |
| 64 | 28229 | 31579.2846767503 | -3350.28467675026 |
| 65 | 28785 | 25185.6951426505 | 3599.30485734951 |
| 66 | 25597 | 28378.1202988418 | -2781.12029884182 |
| 67 | 18130 | 20185.4181525176 | -2055.41815251762 |
| 68 | 20198 | 19453.4536623952 | 744.546337604828 |
| 69 | 22849 | 18995.2068472545 | 3853.79315274554 |
| 70 | 23118 | 24968.6934981549 | -1850.69349815492 |
| 71 | 21925 | 21637.4565649336 | 287.543435066429 |
| 72 | 20801 | 15362.2757354476 | 5438.72426455238 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 28848.9591030465 | 24582.0242856442 | 33115.8939204488 |
| 74 | 29609.16364198 | 25127.2802106882 | 34091.0470732719 |
| 75 | 35338.9761758715 | 30651.9914898056 | 40025.9608619375 |
| 76 | 31170.7084333128 | 26287.2289562243 | 36054.1879104013 |
| 77 | 30569.9447495675 | 25497.5766478941 | 35642.3128512408 |
| 78 | 28275.7559407085 | 23021.2850335094 | 33530.2268479075 |
| 79 | 21469.3371273475 | 16038.8665335288 | 26899.8077211661 |
| 80 | 23298.0508767126 | 17697.1083465613 | 28898.9934068639 |
| 81 | 24710.49839493 | 18944.1214057117 | 30476.8753841483 |
| 82 | 25574.2840864054 | 19647.088296024 | 31501.4798767867 |
| 83 | 24288.8718522749 | 18205.1068754499 | 30372.6368290999 |
| 84 | 21416.9458041958 | 15180.5411790155 | 27653.3504293761 |
