Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.880391676888377 |
beta | 0.129542012995612 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 95.91 | 95.79 | 0.11999999999999 |
4 | 95.86 | 95.0493327264325 | 0.810667273567546 |
5 | 95.7 | 95.0091779181748 | 0.690822081825232 |
6 | 95.57 | 94.9422990770753 | 0.627700922924689 |
7 | 95.57 | 94.8914367458993 | 0.678563254100723 |
8 | 95.57 | 94.9627417730111 | 0.607258226988861 |
9 | 94.87 | 95.0405268579297 | -0.17052685792973 |
10 | 95.07 | 94.4141082300294 | 0.655891769970594 |
11 | 95.13 | 94.590064638163 | 0.539935361837038 |
12 | 95.48 | 94.7255123812857 | 0.754487618714307 |
13 | 95.38 | 95.1358977307953 | 0.244102269204731 |
14 | 95.38 | 95.1247833714113 | 0.25521662858867 |
15 | 95.48 | 95.1525608735798 | 0.32743912642016 |
16 | 95.77 | 95.2812661442719 | 0.488733855728142 |
17 | 94.78 | 95.6077129292416 | -0.827712929241642 |
18 | 92.51 | 94.6807721574999 | -2.17077215749985 |
19 | 92.17 | 92.3238416260311 | -0.153841626031081 |
20 | 91.75 | 91.7250546621705 | 0.0249453378295499 |
21 | 90.43 | 91.2865152118847 | -0.856515211884698 |
22 | 90.55 | 89.9742616315878 | 0.575738368412246 |
23 | 90.37 | 89.9886138250824 | 0.381386174917594 |
24 | 90.4 | 89.875356184933 | 0.524643815067051 |
25 | 90.41 | 89.9480558045214 | 0.461944195478623 |
26 | 90.41 | 90.0182388785447 | 0.391761121455303 |
27 | 90.41 | 90.0713128171275 | 0.338687182872462 |
28 | 89.77 | 90.1162873995518 | -0.346287399551812 |
29 | 89.77 | 89.5187227757921 | 0.251277224207939 |
30 | 89.77 | 89.4759066652016 | 0.294093334798362 |
31 | 89.37 | 89.5043261733861 | -0.134326173386086 |
32 | 89.81 | 89.1402491198741 | 0.669750880125946 |
33 | 89.07 | 89.5604583660324 | -0.490458366032428 |
34 | 89.84 | 88.9032933949038 | 0.936706605096219 |
35 | 89.73 | 89.6094218292022 | 0.120578170797828 |
36 | 90.02 | 89.6107892469337 | 0.409210753066333 |
37 | 88.39 | 89.9129359370877 | -1.52293593708765 |
38 | 90.13 | 88.3403494065269 | 1.78965059347306 |
39 | 90.13 | 89.8882420384173 | 0.241757961582678 |
40 | 90.37 | 90.1009548223791 | 0.269045177620882 |
41 | 89.73 | 90.3683750306337 | -0.638375030633696 |
42 | 89.73 | 89.7641048297046 | -0.0341048297045887 |
43 | 89.73 | 89.6879395065357 | 0.0420604934642768 |
44 | 89.73 | 89.6836264029154 | 0.0463735970846386 |
45 | 89.6 | 89.6883993223781 | -0.0883993223781516 |
46 | 89.63 | 89.5644375449889 | 0.0655624550111327 |
47 | 86.42 | 89.5834996828312 | -3.16349968283123 |
48 | 86.8 | 86.3989324957951 | 0.401067504204889 |
49 | 86.51 | 86.3983214223645 | 0.111678577635502 |
50 | 86.41 | 86.1556714326394 | 0.254328567360616 |
51 | 86.39 | 86.0676148972839 | 0.322385102716083 |
52 | 86.62 | 86.0762420519318 | 0.543757948068162 |
53 | 85.85 | 86.3417783659148 | -0.491778365914783 |
54 | 87.36 | 85.6395509314674 | 1.7204490685326 |
55 | 87.28 | 87.0811633942132 | 0.198836605786809 |
56 | 87.35 | 87.2058377688718 | 0.144162231128192 |
57 | 87.35 | 87.2988186514776 | 0.0511813485224195 |
58 | 87.35 | 87.3157770545237 | 0.0342229454763299 |
59 | 87.38 | 87.3217084692374 | 0.0582915307626308 |
60 | 88.17 | 87.3554776817103 | 0.81452231828969 |
61 | 88.37 | 88.1479205905133 | 0.222079409486682 |
62 | 87.44 | 88.4441093414756 | -1.00410934147556 |
63 | 87.44 | 87.5462553507627 | -0.10625535076268 |
64 | 87.47 | 87.4267463610995 | 0.043253638900481 |
65 | 87.47 | 87.4437968200237 | 0.0262031799763207 |
66 | 87.48 | 87.4488246094962 | 0.031175390503833 |
67 | 87.11 | 87.4617853736297 | -0.351785373629667 |
68 | 87.11 | 87.0974703521541 | 0.0125296478458807 |
69 | 86.26 | 87.0553242209956 | -0.795324220995582 |
70 | 86.28 | 86.2112453614161 | 0.0687546385838544 |
71 | 86.28 | 86.1357356470714 | 0.144264352928644 |
72 | 86.28 | 86.1431570758531 | 0.136842924146876 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 86.1596513626401 | 84.7540195553497 | 87.5652831699305 |
74 | 86.0556702779671 | 84.0733258778464 | 88.0380146780879 |
75 | 85.9516891932941 | 83.4302923644666 | 88.4730860221216 |
76 | 85.8477081086211 | 82.7964040056579 | 88.8990122115843 |
77 | 85.7437270239482 | 82.1604140862319 | 89.3270399616644 |
78 | 85.6397459392752 | 81.5168992747901 | 89.7625926037602 |
79 | 85.5357648546022 | 80.8629655047037 | 90.2085642045006 |
80 | 85.4317837699292 | 80.1969870160741 | 90.6665805237843 |
81 | 85.3278026852562 | 79.518035693712 | 91.1375696768003 |
82 | 85.2238216005832 | 78.8255923066376 | 91.6220508945288 |
83 | 85.1198405159102 | 78.1193882542579 | 92.1202927775625 |
84 | 85.0158594312372 | 77.3993135071818 | 92.6324053552926 |