| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.347103365971636 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1865.71 | 1881.19 | -15.48 |
| 4 | 1872.59 | 1872.99683989476 | -0.406839894759287 |
| 5 | 1875.95 | 1879.73562439788 | -3.78562439787652 |
| 6 | 1875.95 | 1881.78162142707 | -5.83162142706942 |
| 7 | 1875.95 | 1879.75744600066 | -3.80744600066123 |
| 8 | 1878.08 | 1878.43586867808 | -0.355868678076604 |
| 9 | 1878.26 | 1880.44234546207 | -2.18234546207213 |
| 10 | 1876.39 | 1879.86484600647 | -3.47484600647385 |
| 11 | 1876.77 | 1876.78871526139 | -0.0187152613939361 |
| 12 | 1876.88 | 1877.16221913117 | -0.282219131168858 |
| 13 | 1876.88 | 1877.1742599208 | -0.294259920798595 |
| 14 | 1876.68 | 1877.07212131182 | -0.392121311818983 |
| 15 | 1865.52 | 1876.73601468462 | -11.2160146846174 |
| 16 | 1858.99 | 1861.6828982348 | -2.69289823479926 |
| 17 | 1856.87 | 1854.21818419328 | 2.65181580671856 |
| 18 | 1858.22 | 1853.01863838573 | 5.2013616142699 |
| 19 | 1858.22 | 1856.17404850968 | 2.04595149032116 |
| 20 | 1859.32 | 1856.88420515858 | 2.43579484141583 |
| 21 | 1859.52 | 1858.82967774686 | 0.690322253144132 |
| 22 | 1852.48 | 1859.26929092453 | -6.78929092452722 |
| 23 | 1850.07 | 1849.87270519206 | 0.197294807936714 |
| 24 | 1850.07 | 1847.53118688399 | 2.53881311601322 |
| 25 | 1850.07 | 1848.41241746213 | 1.65758253787203 |
| 26 | 1841.55 | 1848.9877699404 | -7.43776994039899 |
| 27 | 1845 | 1837.88609495876 | 7.11390504123619 |
| 28 | 1844.01 | 1843.80535534378 | 0.204644656220353 |
| 29 | 1842.67 | 1842.88638819278 | -0.216388192781778 |
| 30 | 1842.67 | 1841.47127912271 | 1.19872087728936 |
| 31 | 1842.67 | 1841.88735917408 | 0.78264082592159 |
| 32 | 1842.9 | 1842.1590164391 | 0.740983560897575 |
| 33 | 1840.37 | 1842.64621432722 | -2.2762143272198 |
| 34 | 1841.59 | 1839.32613267257 | 2.26386732743117 |
| 35 | 1844.33 | 1841.33192864203 | 2.99807135796664 |
| 36 | 1844.33 | 1845.11256930181 | -0.782569301806689 |
| 37 | 1844.33 | 1844.84093686304 | -0.510936863043526 |
| 38 | 1845.39 | 1844.66358895808 | 0.726411041918027 |
| 39 | 1861.84 | 1845.97572867581 | 15.8642713241888 |
| 40 | 1862.85 | 1867.93227065112 | -5.08227065112419 |
| 41 | 1869.46 | 1867.17819740134 | 2.28180259866008 |
| 42 | 1870.8 | 1874.58021876382 | -3.78021876381786 |
| 43 | 1870.8 | 1874.60809210679 | -3.8080921067874 |
| 44 | 1871.52 | 1873.28629051859 | -1.7662905185914 |
| 45 | 1875.52 | 1873.3932051343 | 2.12679486569527 |
| 46 | 1880.38 | 1878.13142279092 | 2.24857720908153 |
| 47 | 1885.05 | 1883.77191150884 | 1.27808849116195 |
| 48 | 1886.42 | 1888.88554032613 | -2.46554032612971 |
| 49 | 1886.42 | 1889.39974297999 | -2.97974297999144 |
| 50 | 1891.65 | 1888.36546416191 | 3.28453583809392 |
| 51 | 1903.11 | 1894.73553760696 | 8.37446239303677 |
| 52 | 1905.29 | 1909.10234169179 | -3.81234169178879 |
| 53 | 1904.26 | 1909.95906505833 | -5.69906505833501 |
| 54 | 1905.37 | 1906.9509003937 | -1.58090039369563 |
| 55 | 1905.37 | 1907.51216454578 | -2.14216454577786 |
| 56 | 1905.12 | 1906.76861202147 | -1.64861202147335 |
| 57 | 1908.62 | 1905.94637323964 | 2.67362676036146 |
| 58 | 1915.08 | 1910.37439808751 | 4.70560191248819 |
| 59 | 1916.36 | 1918.46772835026 | -2.10772835025909 |
| 60 | 1916.68 | 1919.01612874533 | -2.33612874533014 |
| 61 | 1916.24 | 1918.52525059448 | -2.28525059448316 |
| 62 | 1922.05 | 1917.29203242105 | 4.75796757895068 |
| 63 | 1922.63 | 1924.75353898289 | -2.12353898288688 |
| 64 | 1922.47 | 1924.59645145416 | -2.12645145415513 |
| 65 | 1920.64 | 1923.69835299684 | -3.05835299684236 |
| 66 | 1920.66 | 1920.80678837731 | -0.146788377309122 |
| 67 | 1920.66 | 1920.77583763746 | -0.115837637459663 |
| 68 | 1921.19 | 1920.73563000359 | 0.454369996408786 |
| 69 | 1921.44 | 1921.42334335874 | 0.0166566412588054 |
| 70 | 1921.73 | 1921.67912493499 | 0.0508750650121783 |
| 71 | 1921.81 | 1921.9867838413 | -0.17678384129772 |
| 72 | 1921.81 | 1922.00542157493 | -0.195421574933789 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 1921.93759008849 | 1913.66935160825 | 1930.20582856874 |
| 74 | 1922.06518017698 | 1908.19353137234 | 1935.93682898162 |
| 75 | 1922.19277026547 | 1902.47857095375 | 1941.9069695772 |
| 76 | 1922.32036035396 | 1896.36813800369 | 1948.27258270424 |
| 77 | 1922.44795044245 | 1889.83659893213 | 1955.05930195278 |
| 78 | 1922.57554053094 | 1882.88839025204 | 1962.26269080985 |
| 79 | 1922.70313061944 | 1875.53640685965 | 1969.86985437922 |
| 80 | 1922.83072070793 | 1867.79561298778 | 1977.86582842808 |
| 81 | 1922.95831079642 | 1859.6808844313 | 1986.23573716153 |
| 82 | 1923.08590088491 | 1851.20626758988 | 1994.96553417993 |
| 83 | 1923.2134909734 | 1842.38476400708 | 2004.04221793971 |
| 84 | 1923.34108106189 | 1833.22831845847 | 2013.4538436653 |
