Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.199660169567295 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.66 | 1.67 | -0.01 |
4 | 1.67 | 1.66800339830433 | 0.00199660169567295 |
5 | 1.68 | 1.67840204013744 | 0.00159795986255662 |
6 | 1.68 | 1.68872108907456 | -0.00872108907456326 |
7 | 1.68 | 1.68697983495112 | -0.00697983495112453 |
8 | 1.68 | 1.68558623992123 | -0.0055862399212312 |
9 | 1.69 | 1.68447089031131 | 0.00552910968868536 |
10 | 1.7 | 1.69557483328931 | 0.00442516671068627 |
11 | 1.7 | 1.70645836282513 | -0.0064583628251329 |
12 | 1.71 | 1.70516888500834 | 0.00483111499166022 |
13 | 1.72 | 1.71613346624677 | 0.00386653375322621 |
14 | 1.73 | 1.72690545903158 | 0.00309454096841955 |
15 | 1.74 | 1.73752331560607 | 0.00247668439393189 |
16 | 1.74 | 1.74801781083213 | -0.00801781083212516 |
17 | 1.75 | 1.74641697336182 | 0.00358302663817534 |
18 | 1.75 | 1.75713236106797 | -0.00713236106796677 |
19 | 1.75 | 1.75570831264772 | -0.00570831264772131 |
20 | 1.76 | 1.75456858997653 | 0.00543141002346581 |
21 | 1.79 | 1.76565302622281 | 0.0243469737771911 |
22 | 1.83 | 1.80051414713561 | 0.0294858528643867 |
23 | 1.84 | 1.84640129751835 | -0.00640129751835317 |
24 | 1.85 | 1.85512321337039 | -0.00512321337038801 |
25 | 1.87 | 1.86410031172013 | 0.00589968827987319 |
26 | 1.87 | 1.88527824448248 | -0.0152782444824806 |
27 | 1.87 | 1.88222778759842 | -0.0122277875984178 |
28 | 1.88 | 1.87978638545308 | 0.000213614546914931 |
29 | 1.88 | 1.88982903576974 | -0.00982903576974392 |
30 | 1.88 | 1.88786656882127 | -0.00786656882127379 |
31 | 1.88 | 1.88629592835651 | -0.00629592835650561 |
32 | 1.89 | 1.88503888223326 | 0.00496111776673791 |
33 | 1.89 | 1.89602941984781 | -0.00602941984781236 |
34 | 1.89 | 1.89482558485861 | -0.00482558485860562 |
35 | 1.9 | 1.89386210776748 | 0.00613789223252481 |
36 | 1.89 | 1.90508760037141 | -0.0150876003714069 |
37 | 1.89 | 1.89207520752289 | -0.00207520752288826 |
38 | 1.89 | 1.89166087123698 | -0.001660871236981 |
39 | 1.89 | 1.89132926140418 | -0.001329261404176 |
40 | 1.89 | 1.89106386084682 | -0.00106386084681898 |
41 | 1.89 | 1.89085145020975 | -0.000851450209746973 |
42 | 1.89 | 1.89068144951649 | -0.000681449516490851 |
43 | 1.89 | 1.89054539119048 | -0.000545391190476696 |
44 | 1.89 | 1.89043649829291 | -0.000436498292905707 |
45 | 1.89 | 1.89034934696973 | -0.000349346969728215 |
46 | 1.89 | 1.89027959629451 | -0.000279596294514572 |
47 | 1.89 | 1.89022377205094 | -0.000223772050941262 |
48 | 1.89 | 1.89017909368531 | -0.000179093685305887 |
49 | 1.89 | 1.89014333580973 | -0.000143335809729361 |
50 | 1.89 | 1.89011471735765 | -0.000114717357653671 |
51 | 1.89 | 1.89009181287057 | -9.18128705722498e-05 |
52 | 1.89 | 1.89007348149727 | -7.34814972653819e-05 |
53 | 1.89 | 1.89005881016906 | -5.88101690612852e-05 |
54 | 1.89 | 1.89004706812073 | -4.70681207342949e-05 |
55 | 1.89 | 1.89003767049177 | -3.76704917672832e-05 |
56 | 1.9 | 1.89003014919499 | 0.00996985080500679 |
57 | 1.9 | 1.90202073129728 | -0.00202073129728153 |
58 | 1.92 | 1.90161727174382 | 0.0183827282561837 |
59 | 1.93 | 1.92528757038456 | 0.0047124296154446 |
60 | 1.92 | 1.93622845488065 | -0.0162284548806491 |
61 | 1.95 | 1.92298827882736 | 0.0270117211726366 |
62 | 1.96 | 1.958381443657 | 0.00161855634300334 |
63 | 1.96 | 1.96870460489089 | -0.00870460489089497 |
64 | 1.96 | 1.96696664200236 | -0.00696664200236241 |
65 | 1.96 | 1.96557568107886 | -0.00557568107885609 |
66 | 1.96 | 1.9644624396492 | -0.00446243964919857 |
67 | 1.97 | 1.96357146819216 | 0.00642853180784431 |
68 | 1.97 | 1.97485498994298 | -0.00485498994297862 |
69 | 1.97 | 1.97388564182772 | -0.003885641827716 |
70 | 1.97 | 1.97310983392152 | -0.00310983392151654 |
71 | 1.97 | 1.97248892395342 | -0.00248892395342049 |
72 | 1.97 | 1.97199198497484 | -0.00199198497484043 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.97159426491699 | 1.95522255174225 | 1.98796597809173 |
74 | 1.97318852983398 | 1.9476193701633 | 1.99875768950465 |
75 | 1.97478279475096 | 1.94045180824255 | 2.00911378125938 |
76 | 1.97637705966795 | 1.93320407100512 | 2.01955004833078 |
77 | 1.97797132458494 | 1.92571213682567 | 2.03023051234421 |
78 | 1.97956558950193 | 1.91791063241938 | 2.04122054658448 |
79 | 1.98115985441892 | 1.90977211131457 | 2.05254759752326 |
80 | 1.98275411933591 | 1.90128620579948 | 2.06422203287233 |
81 | 1.98434838425289 | 1.89245095895238 | 2.07624580955341 |
82 | 1.98594264916988 | 1.88326876144343 | 2.08861653689633 |
83 | 1.98753691408687 | 1.87374428646691 | 2.10132954170683 |
84 | 1.98913117900386 | 1.86388337962634 | 2.11437897838138 |