Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0366240380602464 |
gamma | 0.251276247363328 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 105.38 | 101.715742521368 | 3.66425747863248 |
14 | 105.38 | 105.402865406525 | -0.0228654065254688 |
15 | 108.37 | 108.452444649673 | -0.0824446496732918 |
16 | 112.21 | 112.380258527019 | -0.170258527019143 |
17 | 112.05 | 112.268189638912 | -0.21818963891215 |
18 | 112.05 | 112.284365319939 | -0.234365319938959 |
19 | 112.06 | 110.248281915541 | 1.81171808445851 |
20 | 112.05 | 112.680884347621 | -0.630884347621162 |
21 | 111.36 | 113.281112148596 | -1.9211121485956 |
22 | 111.36 | 112.226169930814 | -0.86616993081411 |
23 | 111.36 | 111.856113956968 | -0.496113956968003 |
24 | 111.36 | 111.299610927192 | 0.0603890728075527 |
25 | 111.78 | 111.281405952227 | 0.49859404777331 |
26 | 111.89 | 111.719666479609 | 0.17033352039104 |
27 | 111.89 | 114.886321447609 | -2.99632144760938 |
28 | 111.89 | 115.717417390205 | -3.82741739020473 |
29 | 112.02 | 111.6314085767 | 0.388591423299914 |
30 | 112.02 | 111.959807030444 | 0.0601929695564252 |
31 | 112.02 | 109.934511540052 | 2.08548845994845 |
32 | 112.02 | 112.367140548783 | -0.347140548782917 |
33 | 112.02 | 112.987760193445 | -0.967760193445372 |
34 | 112.02 | 112.657733573954 | -0.637733573954108 |
35 | 112.02 | 112.296043861936 | -0.276043861935989 |
36 | 111.28 | 111.747600687697 | -0.467600687696802 |
37 | 111.28 | 110.970058595647 | 0.309941404353069 |
38 | 111.28 | 110.981409901436 | 0.298590098563594 |
39 | 111.28 | 114.042762143237 | -2.76276214323728 |
40 | 110.56 | 114.882411970685 | -4.32241197068528 |
41 | 110.56 | 110.058274456826 | 0.501725543174501 |
42 | 110.56 | 110.260816338881 | 0.299183661118803 |
43 | 110.56 | 108.244273652673 | 2.315726347327 |
44 | 110.56 | 110.685334902555 | -0.125334902554627 |
45 | 111.37 | 111.314077965647 | 0.0559220343534719 |
46 | 109.43 | 111.831542723028 | -2.40154272302776 |
47 | 109.43 | 109.465255197603 | -0.0352551976029645 |
48 | 109.57 | 108.925630676571 | 0.644369323429203 |
49 | 109.57 | 109.06881341653 | 0.50118658346976 |
50 | 109.57 | 109.087168893039 | 0.482831106961484 |
51 | 109.57 | 112.155268784543 | -2.58526878454323 |
52 | 109.57 | 113.001419135515 | -3.43141913551548 |
53 | 109.39 | 108.929913377162 | 0.46008662283765 |
54 | 111.68 | 108.950930273815 | 2.72906972618516 |
55 | 111.68 | 109.313379827336 | 2.3666201726643 |
56 | 111.68 | 111.756305014614 | -0.0763050146135242 |
57 | 111.93 | 112.386843750187 | -0.456843750187474 |
58 | 111.93 | 112.32552895396 | -0.395528953959683 |
59 | 111.93 | 111.972709753163 | -0.0427097531626117 |
60 | 111.93 | 111.432812216204 | 0.497187783796107 |
61 | 111.56 | 111.430604573854 | 0.129395426145933 |
62 | 111.89 | 111.065343556866 | 0.824656443133946 |
63 | 111.89 | 114.475962472493 | -2.5859624724927 |
64 | 111.89 | 115.322087417811 | -3.43208741781108 |
65 | 110.82 | 111.250557184262 | -0.430557184261744 |
66 | 110.82 | 110.348955108225 | 0.471044891775108 |
67 | 110.82 | 108.338706674269 | 2.48129332573068 |
68 | 110.82 | 110.78583165547 | 0.0341683445304568 |
69 | 110.98 | 111.420416371553 | -0.440416371553411 |
70 | 110.98 | 111.269703212266 | -0.289703212265962 |
71 | 111.78 | 110.92075977746 | 0.859240222539569 |
72 | 111.78 | 111.21389529074 | 0.566104709259733 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 111.214211664492 | 108.111734574197 | 114.316688754786 |
74 | 110.648423328983 | 106.179790619918 | 115.117056038049 |
75 | 113.133051660142 | 107.560281795158 | 118.705821525125 |
76 | 116.558513324633 | 110.007754397278 | 123.109272251988 |
77 | 116.038141655791 | 108.583979372398 | 123.492303939185 |
78 | 115.701936653616 | 107.393033968755 | 124.010839338478 |
79 | 113.338231651441 | 104.208157755123 | 122.468305547759 |
80 | 113.330776649266 | 103.403465164568 | 123.258088133964 |
81 | 113.956654980425 | 103.24948555511 | 124.663824405739 |
82 | 114.287949978249 | 102.813632477561 | 125.762267478938 |
83 | 114.280911642741 | 102.048708663851 | 126.513114621631 |
84 | 113.735539973899 | 100.752097390255 | 126.718982557544 |