Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.834027115207509 |
beta | 0.247194022449966 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 40.2 | 37.5910478958016 | 2.60895210419838 |
14 | 40.85 | 41.0029262831071 | -0.152926283107107 |
15 | 41.45 | 42.06678435509 | -0.616784355090026 |
16 | 41.7 | 42.2694827899412 | -0.569482789941183 |
17 | 41.92 | 42.3630542643891 | -0.443054264389104 |
18 | 41.97 | 42.3001928493455 | -0.330192849345551 |
19 | 42.31 | 42.8347503388802 | -0.52475033888016 |
20 | 42.61 | 43.2645019286457 | -0.654501928645729 |
21 | 42.82 | 42.6513415890464 | 0.168658410953604 |
22 | 43.07 | 42.8585179790104 | 0.211482020989571 |
23 | 43.51 | 43.2832731101359 | 0.226726889864096 |
24 | 43.57 | 43.605633503924 | -0.0356335039239752 |
25 | 43.86 | 44.2199046661201 | -0.359904666120087 |
26 | 44.49 | 44.0532940387181 | 0.43670596128193 |
27 | 45.99 | 45.0380085555941 | 0.951991444405913 |
28 | 48.22 | 46.362882642988 | 1.85711735701201 |
29 | 49.46 | 48.8027528749144 | 0.657247125085625 |
30 | 50.39 | 50.169979806256 | 0.220020193744034 |
31 | 50.4 | 51.8399843627171 | -1.43998436271706 |
32 | 50.59 | 52.0422689734211 | -1.45226897342106 |
33 | 51.32 | 51.1677603268735 | 0.152239673126459 |
34 | 51.86 | 51.6241221595439 | 0.235877840456084 |
35 | 52.47 | 52.3581112959095 | 0.111888704090482 |
36 | 52.73 | 52.759753512525 | -0.0297535125249908 |
37 | 52.73 | 53.6509063878024 | -0.920906387802418 |
38 | 53.59 | 53.3058470513221 | 0.284152948677857 |
39 | 54.11 | 54.4435774743805 | -0.33357747438054 |
40 | 54.8 | 54.7189248703458 | 0.0810751296541738 |
41 | 55.72 | 54.9410922962253 | 0.778907703774649 |
42 | 56.06 | 55.8234688366823 | 0.236531163317728 |
43 | 56.66 | 56.7654578670947 | -0.105457867094664 |
44 | 57.05 | 57.9442388953289 | -0.894238895328854 |
45 | 57.31 | 57.7248117121663 | -0.414811712166312 |
46 | 57.89 | 57.4947457422974 | 0.395254257702646 |
47 | 58.32 | 58.1622627029661 | 0.157737297033911 |
48 | 58.72 | 58.3830468095669 | 0.336953190433064 |
49 | 59.02 | 59.3638439240689 | -0.343843924068914 |
50 | 59.54 | 59.7586869146912 | -0.21868691469124 |
51 | 61.49 | 60.3402574832146 | 1.14974251678536 |
52 | 62.26 | 62.1856074716947 | 0.0743925283052818 |
53 | 63.49 | 62.7287715060489 | 0.761228493951087 |
54 | 64.36 | 63.6735526114978 | 0.68644738850216 |
55 | 65.93 | 65.2623696375842 | 0.667630362415849 |
56 | 66.82 | 67.5199238104174 | -0.699923810417445 |
57 | 68.85 | 68.0950927552131 | 0.754907244786892 |
58 | 71.27 | 69.7171345724756 | 1.55286542752435 |
59 | 72.27 | 72.2778369810459 | -0.00783698104588382 |
60 | 73.4 | 73.2646898869744 | 0.135310113025639 |
61 | 73.58 | 74.8928848610081 | -1.31288486100813 |
62 | 74.84 | 75.2780188086805 | -0.438018808680468 |
63 | 75.74 | 76.7254927219573 | -0.985492721957257 |
64 | 77.81 | 76.8611688701096 | 0.948831129890408 |
65 | 78.74 | 78.6440544394381 | 0.0959455605619155 |
66 | 79.06 | 79.1717790457798 | -0.111779045779784 |
67 | 79.48 | 80.2147494884722 | -0.73474948847219 |
68 | 81.19 | 80.9738598613211 | 0.216140138678853 |
69 | 85.11 | 82.6574925468853 | 2.45250745311473 |
70 | 86.64 | 86.1829625813373 | 0.457037418662651 |
71 | 88.48 | 87.6118518851274 | 0.868148114872653 |
72 | 89.2 | 89.573961044603 | -0.37396104460295 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 90.7017999216097 | 89.1207824600676 | 92.2828173831518 |
74 | 92.9072097943201 | 90.6194052809564 | 95.1950143076838 |
75 | 95.3486752258174 | 92.3100218950989 | 98.3873285565359 |
76 | 97.50010829518 | 93.669911420549 | 101.330305169811 |
77 | 98.8677006038187 | 94.2296656277651 | 103.505735579872 |
78 | 99.6587829346747 | 94.2029527653948 | 105.114613103955 |
79 | 101.254851442474 | 94.9036102576775 | 107.60609262727 |
80 | 103.679950042 | 96.3373968376879 | 111.022503246313 |
81 | 106.481977963477 | 98.069025038499 | 114.894930888456 |
82 | 107.731455788663 | 98.3253267061435 | 117.137584871183 |
83 | 108.826336747401 | 98.4114947601382 | 119.241178734663 |
84 | 109.609388599984 | 98.2639523103787 | 120.954824889588 |