Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.335904170899142 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.7492 | 0.7009 | 0.0483 |
4 | 0.7804 | 0.722424171454428 | 0.0579758285455715 |
5 | 0.7678 | 0.773098494074219 | -0.00529849407421945 |
6 | 0.7573 | 0.758718707815205 | -0.00141870781520481 |
7 | 0.7337 | 0.74774215794279 | -0.0140421579427902 |
8 | 0.7136 | 0.719425338521383 | -0.00582533852138256 |
9 | 0.7107 | 0.697368583015151 | 0.0133314169848493 |
10 | 0.7015 | 0.698946661584357 | 0.00255333841564276 |
11 | 0.6874 | 0.690604338607889 | -0.0032043386078886 |
12 | 0.6754 | 0.675427987904526 | -2.79879045257392e-05 |
13 | 0.6713 | 0.663418586650661 | 0.00788141334933923 |
14 | 0.6849 | 0.661965986267284 | 0.022934013732716 |
15 | 0.7003 | 0.683269617135561 | 0.0170303828644386 |
16 | 0.7309 | 0.704390193771736 | 0.0265098062282643 |
17 | 0.7364 | 0.743894948253538 | -0.00749494825353758 |
18 | 0.7439 | 0.746877363874501 | -0.0029773638745012 |
19 | 0.7928 | 0.753377254930772 | 0.0394227450692282 |
20 | 0.8188 | 0.815519519427819 | 0.00328048057218089 |
21 | 0.784 | 0.842621446534568 | -0.0586214465345682 |
22 | 0.7746 | 0.788130258139466 | -0.0135302581394658 |
23 | 0.7677 | 0.774185387997077 | -0.0064853879970771 |
24 | 0.7197 | 0.76510691911896 | -0.0454069191189598 |
25 | 0.7304 | 0.701854545599221 | 0.0285454544007788 |
26 | 0.7567 | 0.722143082792654 | 0.034556917207346 |
27 | 0.749 | 0.760050895416018 | -0.0110508954160179 |
28 | 0.7328 | 0.748638853553607 | -0.0158388535536073 |
29 | 0.7142 | 0.72711851658269 | -0.0129185165826899 |
30 | 0.6927 | 0.704179132980735 | -0.0114791329807346 |
31 | 0.6974 | 0.6788232443342 | 0.0185767556658001 |
32 | 0.6953 | 0.689763254044117 | 0.00553674595588349 |
33 | 0.699 | 0.689523070103907 | 0.00947692989609317 |
34 | 0.6971 | 0.696406410383323 | 0.000693589616676871 |
35 | 0.7246 | 0.694739390028457 | 0.0298606099715427 |
36 | 0.7301 | 0.732269693463491 | -0.00216969346349105 |
37 | 0.736 | 0.737040884379532 | -0.00104088437953176 |
38 | 0.7585 | 0.742591246975023 | 0.0159087530249767 |
39 | 0.7756 | 0.770435063469917 | 0.00516493653008276 |
40 | 0.7564 | 0.789269987192801 | -0.0328699871928014 |
41 | 0.7568 | 0.759028821397338 | -0.00222882139733793 |
42 | 0.7593 | 0.758680150993783 | 0.000619849006217033 |
43 | 0.779 | 0.761388360860299 | 0.0176116391397011 |
44 | 0.7978 | 0.787004183903695 | 0.0107958160963049 |
45 | 0.8125 | 0.809430543558704 | 0.00306945644129608 |
46 | 0.8075 | 0.825161586779729 | -0.0176615867797286 |
47 | 0.7781 | 0.814228986115721 | -0.0361289861157206 |
48 | 0.771 | 0.772693108989093 | -0.00169310898909292 |
49 | 0.7796 | 0.76502438661787 | 0.0145756133821302 |
50 | 0.763 | 0.778520395946341 | -0.0155203959463406 |
51 | 0.7531 | 0.756707030213959 | -0.0036070302139587 |
52 | 0.7473 | 0.745595413720531 | 0.00170458627946923 |
53 | 0.7707 | 0.740367991361462 | 0.0303320086385381 |
54 | 0.7684 | 0.773956639574896 | -0.00555663957489572 |
55 | 0.7702 | 0.769790141165505 | 0.000409858834495069 |
56 | 0.759 | 0.771727814457492 | -0.0127278144574917 |
57 | 0.7649 | 0.75625248849479 | 0.00864751150521015 |
58 | 0.7508 | 0.765057223677288 | -0.0142572236772882 |
59 | 0.7494 | 0.746168162778645 | 0.00323183722135478 |
60 | 0.7334 | 0.745853750380965 | -0.0124537503809652 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 0.725670483684662 | 0.685130898008387 | 0.766210069360938 |
62 | 0.717940967369325 | 0.65029158578914 | 0.785590348949509 |
63 | 0.710211451053987 | 0.61445232356973 | 0.805970578538244 |
64 | 0.702481934738649 | 0.576805998122634 | 0.828157871354664 |
65 | 0.694752418423312 | 0.537204970002542 | 0.852299866844081 |
66 | 0.687022902107974 | 0.495656889170181 | 0.878388915045767 |
67 | 0.679293385792636 | 0.452215059464111 | 0.906371712121161 |
68 | 0.671563869477299 | 0.406945441022893 | 0.936182297931704 |
69 | 0.663834353161961 | 0.359915189388652 | 0.96775351693527 |
70 | 0.656104836846623 | 0.311188512771432 | 1.00102116092181 |
71 | 0.648375320531286 | 0.260825300243945 | 1.03592534081863 |
72 | 0.640645804215948 | 0.208880857775631 | 1.07241075065627 |