| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.790057878929683 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 339105 | 338881 | 224 |
| 3 | 342435 | 339057.97296488 | 3377.02703511977 |
| 4 | 354980 | 341726.019781335 | 13253.9802186649 |
| 5 | 339890 | 352197.431280269 | -12307.4312802695 |
| 6 | 339890 | 342473.848227907 | -2583.84822790691 |
| 7 | 340471 | 340432.458577491 | 38.5414225094137 |
| 8 | 343833 | 340462.908532009 | 3370.09146799071 |
| 9 | 346109 | 343125.475849009 | 2983.52415099094 |
| 10 | 345455 | 345482.632611476 | -27.632611476467 |
| 11 | 350419 | 345460.801249064 | 4958.1987509359 |
| 12 | 344660 | 349378.06523754 | -4718.06523754034 |
| 13 | 341499 | 345650.520623317 | -4151.52062331734 |
| 14 | 342376 | 342370.579045326 | 5.42095467360923 |
| 15 | 344148 | 342374.861913278 | 1773.13808672241 |
| 16 | 359079 | 343775.743629123 | 15303.2563708771 |
| 17 | 344090 | 355866.201898215 | -11776.2018982152 |
| 18 | 342681 | 346562.320804664 | -3881.32080466358 |
| 19 | 348552 | 343495.852722285 | 5056.14727771457 |
| 20 | 349867 | 347490.501716073 | 2376.49828392733 |
| 21 | 353247 | 349368.072909552 | 3878.92709044769 |
| 22 | 356048 | 352432.649819154 | 3615.35018084571 |
| 23 | 363887 | 355288.985714621 | 8598.01428537868 |
| 24 | 358905 | 362081.914643935 | -3176.9146439347 |
| 25 | 359647 | 359571.968198807 | 75.0318011930212 |
| 26 | 361488 | 359631.24766451 | 1856.75233549019 |
| 27 | 363229 | 361098.189476385 | 2130.8105236151 |
| 28 | 393301 | 362781.653119073 | 30519.3468809267 |
| 29 | 366190 | 386893.703582137 | -20703.7035821375 |
| 30 | 363811 | 370536.579444045 | -6725.57944404508 |
| 31 | 366190 | 365222.98241391 | 967.017586090253 |
| 32 | 372656 | 365986.982276864 | 6669.01772313606 |
| 33 | 371781 | 371255.892273749 | 525.107726250717 |
| 34 | 374306 | 371670.757770161 | 2635.2422298395 |
| 35 | 377689 | 373752.751656733 | 3936.2483432666 |
| 36 | 373240 | 376862.615673755 | -3622.61567375506 |
| 37 | 373456 | 374000.539618371 | -544.539618370705 |
| 38 | 372610 | 373570.321802488 | -960.321802487539 |
| 39 | 372209 | 372811.611996124 | -602.611996124324 |
| 40 | 390212 | 372335.513640649 | 17876.4863593513 |
| 41 | 373113 | 386458.972536433 | -13345.9725364332 |
| 42 | 370518 | 375914.881782045 | -5396.88178204501 |
| 43 | 370469 | 371651.032808488 | -1182.03280848829 |
| 44 | 372493 | 370717.158474989 | 1775.84152501129 |
| 45 | 369536 | 372120.176063554 | -2584.17606355436 |
| 46 | 368835 | 370078.527404002 | -1243.52740400174 |
| 47 | 366859 | 369096.068780805 | -2237.06878080522 |
| 48 | 356044 | 367328.654964822 | -11284.6549648225 |
| 49 | 346106 | 358413.124398861 | -12307.1243988615 |
| 50 | 333829 | 348689.783800573 | -14860.7838005732 |
| 51 | 317388 | 336948.90447186 | -19560.9044718597 |
| 52 | 285871 | 321494.657774876 | -35623.6577748761 |
| 53 | 339729 | 293349.906273541 | 46379.0937264594 |
| 54 | 308216 | 329992.074689748 | -21776.0746897481 |
| 55 | 309137 | 312787.715308951 | -3650.71530895133 |
| 56 | 311245 | 309903.438915385 | 1341.56108461489 |
| 57 | 319568 | 310963.349820351 | 8604.65017964947 |
| 58 | 329201 | 317761.521490216 | 11439.4785097837 |
| 59 | 339880 | 326799.371617718 | 13080.6283822823 |
| 60 | 342305 | 337133.825132491 | 5171.17486750893 |
| 61 | 346975 | 341219.35257989 | 5755.64742011036 |
| 62 | 355294 | 345766.647172489 | 9527.35282751085 |
| 63 | 360766 | 353293.807339207 | 7472.19266079291 |
| 64 | 392946 | 359197.272023747 | 33748.7279762529 |
| 65 | 352108 | 385860.72046524 | -33752.7204652403 |
| 66 | 358071 | 359194.117726366 | -1123.11772636604 |
| 67 | 365429 | 358306.789717685 | 7122.21028231503 |
| 68 | 378731 | 363933.748066622 | 14797.2519333781 |
| 69 | 384120 | 375624.433543095 | 8495.56645690522 |
| 70 | 391390 | 382336.422758343 | 9053.57724165655 |
| 71 | 403547 | 389489.272790613 | 14057.7272093873 |
| 72 | 404124 | 400595.690932233 | 3528.30906776671 |
| 73 | 406439 | 403383.259310521 | 3055.74068947858 |
| 74 | 412232 | 405797.47131821 | 6434.52868178999 |
| 75 | 419221 | 410881.121400457 | 8339.87859954278 |
| 76 | 450521 | 417470.108197343 | 33050.8918026569 |
| 77 | 430027 | 443582.225671685 | -13555.2256716847 |
| 78 | 433442 | 432872.8128291 | 569.187170899706 |
| 79 | 439938 | 433322.503638055 | 6615.49636194471 |
| 80 | 450200 | 438549.12866184 | 11650.8713381597 |
| 81 | 459279 | 447753.991358949 | 11525.0086410506 |
| 82 | 465090 | 456859.415240544 | 8230.58475945587 |
| 83 | 478567 | 463362.053577951 | 15204.9464220492 |
| 84 | 475726 | 475374.841297394 | 351.15870260552 |
| 85 | 480634 | 475652.276997143 | 4981.7230028573 |
| 86 | 486952 | 479588.126506195 | 7363.87349380465 |
| 87 | 491912 | 485406.012779417 | 6505.98722058284 |
| 88 | 517281 | 490546.119243254 | 26734.8807567455 |
| 89 | 502379 | 511668.222427367 | -9289.22242736683 |
| 90 | 504942 | 504329.199059495 | 612.800940504647 |
| 91 | 516387 | 504813.347270757 | 11573.6527292434 |
| 92 | 523270 | 513957.202797491 | 9312.79720250866 |
| 93 | 528995 | 521314.851602208 | 7680.14839779236 |
| 94 | 540850 | 527382.613355233 | 13467.3866447674 |
| 95 | 550679 | 538022.628282523 | 12656.3717174765 |
| 96 | 544432 | 548021.894476579 | -3589.89447657857 |
| 97 | 550296 | 545185.670060831 | 5110.32993916853 |
| 98 | 554659 | 549223.126493202 | 5435.87350679818 |
| 99 | 558856 | 553517.781186113 | 5338.2188138871 |
| 100 | 582661 | 557735.283019475 | 24925.7169805249 |
| 101 | 564317 | 577428.04210791 | -13111.0421079102 |
| 102 | 568569 | 567069.559989577 | 1499.44001042307 |
| 103 | 574693 | 568254.204383794 | 6438.7956162059 |
| 104 | 586558 | 573341.225591196 | 13216.7744088045 |
| 105 | 588751 | 583783.242346908 | 4967.75765309227 |
| 106 | 598250 | 587708.058421346 | 10541.9415786535 |
| 107 | 607706 | 596036.802424778 | 11669.1975752219 |
| 108 | 603869 | 605256.143909869 | -1387.14390986937 |
| 109 | 607696 | 604160.219934668 | 3535.78006533231 |
| 110 | 613285 | 606953.690833446 | 6331.30916655401 |
| 111 | 617160 | 611955.791524422 | 5204.20847557834 |
| 112 | 647083 | 616067.417434145 | 31015.582565855 |
| 113 | 621246 | 640571.522809893 | -19325.5228098929 |
| 114 | 623252 | 625303.241249502 | -2051.24124950171 |
| 115 | 632722 | 623682.641938747 | 9039.35806125263 |
| 116 | 641716 | 630824.257995507 | 10891.7420044935 |
| 117 | 644953 | 639429.364581426 | 5523.63541857398 |
| 118 | 652723 | 643793.356264205 | 8929.64373579458 |
| 119 | 660093 | 650848.291653705 | 9244.70834629494 |
| 120 | 657090 | 658152.146321102 | -1062.14632110239 |
| 121 | 657281 | 657312.989251539 | -31.9892515392276 |
| 122 | 661949 | 657287.71589132 | 4661.28410868044 |
| 123 | 665608 | 660970.400127312 | 4637.59987268772 |
| 124 | 697124 | 664634.372446052 | 32489.6275539475 |
| 125 | 671310 | 690303.05867854 | -18993.0586785396 |
| 126 | 674708 | 675297.443024586 | -589.443024585606 |
| 127 | 681915 | 674831.748918832 | 7083.25108116842 |
| 128 | 690556 | 680427.927243946 | 10128.0727560541 |
| 129 | 692885 | 688429.690923239 | 4455.30907676055 |
| 130 | 699740 | 691949.642962401 | 7790.35703759897 |
| 131 | 707885 | 698104.475919631 | 9780.52408036857 |
| 132 | 704785 | 705831.656029388 | -1046.65602938808 |
| 133 | 705363 | 705004.737186841 | 358.262813159265 |
| 134 | 749101 | 705287.785545105 | 43813.2144548952 |
| 135 | 752891 | 739902.760826431 | 12988.2391735694 |
| 136 | 784662 | 750164.221518932 | 34497.7784810677 |
| 137 | 761914 | 777419.463213471 | -15505.4632134706 |
| 138 | 763768 | 765169.249835214 | -1401.24983521376 |
| 139 | 768877 | 764062.181362554 | 4814.8186374458 |
| 140 | 781031 | 767866.166762686 | 13164.8332373142 |
| 141 | 783454 | 778267.146986621 | 5186.8530133788 |
| 142 | 785988 | 782365.061076691 | 3622.93892330874 |
| 143 | 795068 | 785227.392517932 | 9840.60748206766 |
| 144 | 790001 | 793002.041992594 | -3001.04199259426 |
| 145 | 789721 | 790631.045121346 | -910.045121346368 |
| 146 | 794064 | 789912.056803045 | 4151.9431969549 |
| 147 | 798690 | 793192.332238668 | 5497.66776133224 |
| 148 | 829281 | 797535.807969246 | 31745.1920307539 |
| 149 | 806249 | 822616.347051279 | -16367.347051279 |
| 150 | 807048 | 809685.19555624 | -2637.19555623957 |
| 151 | 819928 | 807601.658428754 | 12326.3415712458 |
| 152 | 821105 | 817340.181705495 | 3764.81829450454 |
| 153 | 828422 | 820314.606061807 | 8107.39393819263 |
| 154 | 835360 | 826719.916520263 | 8640.08347973682 |
| 155 | 844092 | 833546.082548039 | 10545.9174519605 |
| 156 | 837469 | 841877.967721503 | -4408.967721503 |
| 157 | 836969 | 838394.628035183 | -1425.62803518295 |
| 158 | 838721 | 837268.299373564 | 1452.70062643639 |
| 159 | 840537 | 838416.016949206 | 2120.98305079422 |
| 160 | 863719 | 840091.716319562 | 23627.2836804379 |
| 161 | 845413 | 858758.637948999 | -13345.6379489987 |
| 162 | 844366 | 848214.811538049 | -3848.81153804925 |
| 163 | 848357 | 845174.027657898 | 3182.97234210197 |
| 164 | 858754 | 847688.760035191 | 11065.239964809 |
| 165 | 862431 | 856430.940051636 | 6000.05994836404 |
| 166 | 871565 | 861171.334687891 | 10393.6653121086 |
| 167 | 880366 | 869382.931858681 | 10983.0681413191 |
| 168 | 874476 | 878060.191378552 | -3584.19137855165 |
| 169 | 882077 | 875228.472740335 | 6848.52725966496 |
| 170 | 889199 | 880639.205660898 | 8559.79433910199 |
| 171 | 892665 | 887401.938620523 | 5263.0613794768 |
| 172 | 913625 | 891560.061730669 | 22064.9382693307 |
| 173 | 893597 | 908992.640058451 | -15395.6400584511 |
| 174 | 892114 | 896829.193329106 | -4715.19332910632 |
| 175 | 894801 | 893103.917688769 | 1697.08231123083 |
| 176 | 898843 | 894444.710939949 | 4398.28906005074 |
| 177 | 908135 | 897919.613865653 | 10215.3861343474 |
| 178 | 918920 | 905990.360167403 | 12929.6398325972 |
| 179 | 923125 | 916205.523988869 | 6919.47601113073 |
| 180 | 921770 | 921672.310529528 | 97.6894704719307 |
| 181 | 917843 | 921749.490865363 | -3906.49086536292 |
| 182 | 916761 | 918663.136978216 | -1902.13697821612 |
| 183 | 915087 | 917160.338671773 | -2073.33867177297 |
| 184 | 938173 | 915522.281118449 | 22650.7188815508 |
| 185 | 907953 | 933417.66003424 | -25464.6600342398 |
| 186 | 905374 | 913299.104739923 | -7925.1047399228 |
| 187 | 921867 | 907037.813298804 | 14829.1867011961 |
| 188 | 927104 | 918753.729090203 | 8350.27090979682 |
| 189 | 930989 | 925350.926413685 | 5638.07358631457 |
| 190 | 936820 | 929805.330872539 | 7014.66912746138 |
| 191 | 944281 | 935347.325484774 | 8933.67451522569 |
| 192 | 945322 | 942405.445423322 | 2916.55457667832 |
| 193 | 944555 | 944709.692345955 | -154.692345954827 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 194 | 944587.476439223 | 921494.481713743 | 967680.471164703 |
| 195 | 944587.476439223 | 915156.893347219 | 974018.059531227 |
| 196 | 944587.476439223 | 909960.434450632 | 979214.518427814 |
| 197 | 944587.476439223 | 905447.920327484 | 983727.032550962 |
| 198 | 944587.476439223 | 901404.40489066 | 987770.547987786 |
| 199 | 944587.476439223 | 897708.371455098 | 991466.581423348 |
| 200 | 944587.476439223 | 894283.169467982 | 994891.783410464 |
| 201 | 944587.476439223 | 891076.766150523 | 998098.186727923 |
| 202 | 944587.476439223 | 888051.921862077 | 1001123.03101637 |
| 203 | 944587.476439223 | 885180.896440962 | 1003994.05643748 |
| 204 | 944587.476439223 | 882442.367517972 | 1006732.58536047 |
| 205 | 944587.476439223 | 879819.526197005 | 1009355.42668144 |
