| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.65589684882898 |
| beta | 0.112531861924501 |
| gamma | 0.072253821026611 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 341499 | 339703.208066239 | 1795.79193376075 |
| 14 | 342376 | 341798.310539646 | 577.689460354159 |
| 15 | 344148 | 344071.393956867 | 76.6060431333608 |
| 16 | 359079 | 358990.51424433 | 88.4857556701172 |
| 17 | 344090 | 343740.207468933 | 349.792531066865 |
| 18 | 342681 | 342114.942257065 | 566.057742934965 |
| 19 | 348552 | 346845.305038332 | 1706.69496166823 |
| 20 | 349867 | 351958.111459917 | -2091.11145991721 |
| 21 | 353247 | 353377.313490699 | -130.313490699336 |
| 22 | 356048 | 353108.478383983 | 2939.5216160171 |
| 23 | 363887 | 360584.477464272 | 3302.52253572771 |
| 24 | 358905 | 357873.824559478 | 1031.17544052185 |
| 25 | 359647 | 356230.452607207 | 3416.54739279283 |
| 26 | 361488 | 360231.752795515 | 1256.24720448465 |
| 27 | 363229 | 363860.960361327 | -631.960361327277 |
| 28 | 393301 | 379186.849336615 | 14114.1506633854 |
| 29 | 366190 | 375048.873003205 | -8858.87300320476 |
| 30 | 363811 | 368615.8091555 | -4804.8091554998 |
| 31 | 366190 | 370682.135886955 | -4492.13588695519 |
| 32 | 372656 | 372007.532610555 | 648.467389444937 |
| 33 | 371781 | 375847.380919605 | -4066.38091960503 |
| 34 | 374306 | 373357.712109237 | 948.287890762615 |
| 35 | 377689 | 379674.216839834 | -1985.21683983417 |
| 36 | 373240 | 373186.120426751 | 53.8795732487342 |
| 37 | 373456 | 370636.156685691 | 2819.84331430908 |
| 38 | 372610 | 373823.433744069 | -1213.43374406855 |
| 39 | 372209 | 375234.618122251 | -3025.61812225124 |
| 40 | 390212 | 388629.248286217 | 1582.75171378325 |
| 41 | 373113 | 374047.964860824 | -934.964860823704 |
| 42 | 370518 | 371844.991640422 | -1326.99164042162 |
| 43 | 370469 | 375388.906097189 | -4919.90609718877 |
| 44 | 372493 | 375718.690148479 | -3225.69014847907 |
| 45 | 369536 | 375771.46856449 | -6235.46856449038 |
| 46 | 368835 | 370694.883726094 | -1859.88372609403 |
| 47 | 366859 | 373600.416511086 | -6741.41651108564 |
| 48 | 356044 | 362196.223578098 | -6152.22357809788 |
| 49 | 346106 | 353339.18003702 | -7233.18003702001 |
| 50 | 333829 | 346785.139962947 | -12956.1399629474 |
| 51 | 317388 | 336535.251199926 | -19147.251199926 |
| 52 | 285871 | 334366.390291785 | -48495.3902917847 |
| 53 | 339729 | 278076.242073948 | 61652.7579260525 |
| 54 | 308216 | 312733.995888962 | -4517.99588896212 |
| 55 | 309137 | 309679.468902973 | -542.468902972993 |
| 56 | 311245 | 308829.476645579 | 2415.52335442108 |
| 57 | 319568 | 308830.805317048 | 10737.1946829517 |
| 58 | 329201 | 312571.393769011 | 16629.606230989 |
| 59 | 339880 | 326423.520333545 | 13456.4796664549 |
| 60 | 342305 | 328713.269267856 | 13591.7307321441 |
| 61 | 346975 | 334668.191338828 | 12306.8086611716 |
| 62 | 355294 | 344119.156184996 | 11174.8438150038 |
| 63 | 360766 | 354654.942878045 | 6111.0571219555 |
| 64 | 392946 | 375299.716137916 | 17646.2838620837 |
| 65 | 352108 | 376988.606913971 | -24880.6069139714 |
| 66 | 358071 | 358715.580350755 | -644.580350755132 |
| 67 | 365429 | 364057.720084701 | 1371.27991529915 |
| 68 | 378731 | 370435.009039962 | 8295.99096003803 |
| 69 | 384120 | 380832.766342763 | 3287.23365723668 |
| 70 | 391390 | 385616.122811237 | 5773.87718876288 |
| 71 | 403547 | 397250.536823624 | 6296.46317637572 |
| 72 | 404124 | 399300.359087234 | 4823.64091276628 |
| 73 | 406439 | 403278.148307581 | 3160.85169241874 |
| 74 | 412232 | 409832.884747064 | 2399.11525293556 |
| 75 | 419221 | 416969.788380044 | 2251.2116199559 |
| 76 | 450521 | 437567.795729846 | 12953.2042701536 |
| 77 | 430027 | 436972.878233954 | -6945.87823395379 |
| 78 | 433442 | 434241.212086957 | -799.212086957181 |
| 79 | 439938 | 442696.089655126 | -2758.08965512627 |
| 80 | 450200 | 449396.360188695 | 803.639811304805 |
| 81 | 459279 | 457061.625855027 | 2217.37414497347 |
| 82 | 465090 | 463432.373546398 | 1657.62645360228 |
| 83 | 478567 | 474303.410913051 | 4263.58908694884 |
| 84 | 475726 | 476756.680335793 | -1030.68033579347 |
| 85 | 480634 | 478194.61514532 | 2439.3848546801 |
| 86 | 486952 | 485545.271915663 | 1406.72808433749 |
| 87 | 491912 | 493242.414274638 | -1330.41427463794 |
| 88 | 517281 | 512707.788000547 | 4573.21199945308 |
| 89 | 502379 | 506453.654768234 | -4074.65476823441 |
| 90 | 504942 | 506301.902200747 | -1359.90220074716 |
| 91 | 516387 | 514842.801656082 | 1544.19834391813 |
| 92 | 523270 | 525273.512504304 | -2003.51250430429 |
| 93 | 528995 | 531745.55995287 | -2750.55995287001 |
| 94 | 540850 | 535090.09353319 | 5759.90646680992 |
| 95 | 550679 | 549265.536352253 | 1413.4636477473 |
| 96 | 544432 | 550056.363021164 | -5624.36302116385 |
| 97 | 550296 | 548567.110512956 | 1728.88948704419 |
| 98 | 554659 | 555373.15900024 | -714.159000240499 |
| 99 | 558856 | 561401.702186925 | -2545.7021869251 |
| 100 | 582661 | 579917.590263129 | 2743.40973687102 |
| 101 | 564317 | 571814.066554444 | -7497.06655444368 |
| 102 | 568569 | 568798.236308888 | -229.23630888795 |
| 103 | 574693 | 577549.568753215 | -2856.56875321479 |
| 104 | 586558 | 584077.435725964 | 2480.56427403644 |
| 105 | 588751 | 592874.779181854 | -4123.7791818541 |
| 106 | 598250 | 594831.637849276 | 3418.3621507244 |
| 107 | 607706 | 606491.798305032 | 1214.20169496757 |
| 108 | 603869 | 606090.83622714 | -2221.83622713969 |
| 109 | 607696 | 606381.137016171 | 1314.86298382853 |
| 110 | 613285 | 612189.351361897 | 1095.64863810281 |
| 111 | 617160 | 618827.450550294 | -1667.4505502939 |
| 112 | 647083 | 637583.752307563 | 9499.24769243714 |
| 113 | 621246 | 633688.267711472 | -12442.2677114719 |
| 114 | 623252 | 627276.105047016 | -4024.10504701559 |
| 115 | 632722 | 632859.486770801 | -137.486770800664 |
| 116 | 641716 | 640890.594947757 | 825.40505224315 |
| 117 | 644953 | 647903.064299593 | -2950.0642995931 |
| 118 | 652723 | 650368.850302155 | 2354.14969784545 |
| 119 | 660093 | 660749.219801264 | -656.219801264117 |
| 120 | 657090 | 658370.994423232 | -1280.99442323239 |
| 121 | 657281 | 658770.735063052 | -1489.73506305215 |
| 122 | 661949 | 661931.379257694 | 17.6207423063461 |
| 123 | 665608 | 666911.543721495 | -1303.54372149473 |
| 124 | 697124 | 685328.864217072 | 11795.1357829281 |
| 125 | 671310 | 681707.874840823 | -10397.874840823 |
| 126 | 674708 | 676310.973284872 | -1602.97328487237 |
| 127 | 681915 | 683222.753259534 | -1307.75325953425 |
| 128 | 690556 | 690067.604417799 | 488.395582200959 |
| 129 | 692885 | 696297.664200619 | -3412.66420061875 |
| 130 | 699740 | 698090.268150392 | 1649.73184960778 |
| 131 | 707885 | 707380.13182702 | 504.868172980146 |
| 132 | 704785 | 705279.991590942 | -494.991590942489 |
| 133 | 705363 | 705780.158280078 | -417.158280078089 |
| 134 | 749101 | 709351.024516883 | 39749.975483117 |
| 135 | 752891 | 742960.529757643 | 9930.47024235735 |
| 136 | 784662 | 772502.910980968 | 12159.0890190317 |
| 137 | 761914 | 772026.757799511 | -10112.757799511 |
| 138 | 763768 | 770514.473569851 | -6746.47356985114 |
| 139 | 768877 | 777159.294144461 | -8282.29414446128 |
| 140 | 781031 | 782058.743451181 | -1027.74345118145 |
| 141 | 783454 | 789669.996432002 | -6215.99643200159 |
| 142 | 785988 | 792015.471963935 | -6027.47196393483 |
| 143 | 795068 | 797940.471564465 | -2872.47156446485 |
| 144 | 790001 | 795050.060688397 | -5049.06068839703 |
| 145 | 789721 | 793678.80546752 | -3957.80546752014 |
| 146 | 794064 | 796778.348320089 | -2714.34832008893 |
| 147 | 798690 | 799512.290061521 | -822.290061520995 |
| 148 | 829281 | 818981.773769813 | 10299.2262301872 |
| 149 | 806249 | 813519.121991979 | -7270.12199197884 |
| 150 | 807048 | 810951.941009298 | -3903.94100929808 |
| 151 | 819928 | 816629.722539925 | 3298.27746007498 |
| 152 | 821105 | 827366.691843575 | -6261.69184357463 |
| 153 | 828422 | 829091.197572242 | -669.197572242469 |
| 154 | 835360 | 833164.070876081 | 2195.92912391876 |
| 155 | 844092 | 843252.761442391 | 839.238557608682 |
| 156 | 837469 | 841708.238276302 | -4239.23827630177 |
| 157 | 836969 | 839920.551835144 | -2951.55183514382 |
| 158 | 838721 | 842810.557116756 | -4089.5571167561 |
| 159 | 840537 | 843687.590413169 | -3150.59041316877 |
| 160 | 863719 | 860732.655593796 | 2986.34440620418 |
| 161 | 845413 | 848323.121072274 | -2910.12107227405 |
| 162 | 844366 | 847307.588137444 | -2941.58813744353 |
| 163 | 848357 | 852474.91616175 | -4117.91616174974 |
| 164 | 858754 | 856241.831326082 | 2512.16867391835 |
| 165 | 862431 | 862639.613033885 | -208.613033885485 |
| 166 | 871565 | 865899.296312225 | 5665.70368777472 |
| 167 | 880366 | 877299.650656877 | 3066.34934312268 |
| 168 | 874476 | 876323.57958002 | -1847.57958002028 |
| 169 | 882077 | 875547.078760594 | 6529.92123940564 |
| 170 | 889199 | 884737.967994295 | 4461.03200570529 |
| 171 | 892665 | 891988.073606808 | 676.926393191912 |
| 172 | 913625 | 912720.105039177 | 904.89496082277 |
| 173 | 893597 | 899669.050477922 | -6072.05047792208 |
| 174 | 892114 | 897215.754418195 | -5101.75441819476 |
| 175 | 894801 | 901414.467835347 | -6613.46783534717 |
| 176 | 898843 | 904002.684291913 | -5159.68429191282 |
| 177 | 908135 | 905027.905116762 | 3107.09488323785 |
| 178 | 918920 | 910580.162064723 | 8339.83793527668 |
| 179 | 923125 | 923838.98097709 | -713.980977089959 |
| 180 | 921770 | 920151.34125688 | 1618.65874311957 |
| 181 | 917843 | 922002.575661705 | -4159.57566170522 |
| 182 | 916761 | 923487.787610592 | -6726.78761059185 |
| 183 | 915087 | 921836.957550534 | -6749.95755053428 |
| 184 | 938173 | 935686.4173764 | 2486.58262360038 |
| 185 | 907953 | 921599.094085135 | -13646.0940851346 |
| 186 | 905374 | 911742.869615759 | -6368.86961575935 |
| 187 | 921867 | 912520.114590708 | 9346.88540929195 |
| 188 | 927104 | 924238.057730122 | 2865.94226987835 |
| 189 | 930989 | 929950.398764042 | 1038.60123595758 |
| 190 | 936820 | 933340.965694548 | 3479.03430545155 |
| 191 | 944281 | 941892.651320081 | 2388.34867991915 |
| 192 | 945322 | 939232.951976889 | 6089.0480231113 |
| 193 | 944555 | 943137.730251871 | 1417.26974812883 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 194 | 947893.665084983 | 930657.705574655 | 965129.62459531 |
| 195 | 950827.552741871 | 929490.638813348 | 972164.466670393 |
| 196 | 970005.358993787 | 944567.814788976 | 995442.903198599 |
| 197 | 954373.882686277 | 924781.15670282 | 983966.608669734 |
| 198 | 955144.120512488 | 921313.910976802 | 988974.330048175 |
| 199 | 962454.606176137 | 924289.616371135 | 1000619.59598114 |
| 200 | 969156.117450941 | 926550.761059416 | 1011761.47384247 |
| 201 | 974007.025055496 | 926851.221914398 | 1021162.82819659 |
| 202 | 977764.156034205 | 925945.593432857 | 1029582.71863555 |
| 203 | 984737.154900157 | 928142.683198699 | 1041331.62660162 |
| 204 | 981156.990823707 | 919673.505117962 | 1042640.47652945 |
| 205 | 981056.436029894 | 914571.440387956 | 1047541.43167183 |
