Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.114796863298257 |
beta | 0.182276928575137 |
gamma | 0.552028524618862 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 9737 | 9769.78069418618 | -32.7806941861818 |
14 | 9035 | 9093.31591227103 | -58.3159122710331 |
15 | 9133 | 9215.67915722104 | -82.6791572210368 |
16 | 9487 | 9566.47569619328 | -79.4756961932799 |
17 | 8700 | 8753.67194271874 | -53.6719427187381 |
18 | 9627 | 9659.47888223125 | -32.4788822312457 |
19 | 8947 | 9350.82964678487 | -403.829646784869 |
20 | 9283 | 9688.29629327536 | -405.296293275362 |
21 | 8829 | 9055.06877602586 | -226.068776025861 |
22 | 9947 | 9559.30462729403 | 387.695372705974 |
23 | 9628 | 9450.02965530042 | 177.970344699575 |
24 | 9318 | 8795.73144048545 | 522.268559514547 |
25 | 9605 | 9305.11634736975 | 299.883652630251 |
26 | 8640 | 8683.0267379677 | -43.0267379677043 |
27 | 9214 | 8790.39426331927 | 423.605736680733 |
28 | 9567 | 9199.17940147508 | 367.820598524924 |
29 | 8547 | 8492.39551650147 | 54.6044834985296 |
30 | 9185 | 9421.14866186548 | -236.14866186548 |
31 | 9470 | 8937.607423781 | 532.392576219005 |
32 | 9123 | 9416.30780766799 | -293.307807667994 |
33 | 9278 | 8926.70135324997 | 351.298646750027 |
34 | 10170 | 9858.85165211439 | 311.148347885612 |
35 | 9434 | 9690.76166400194 | -256.761664001935 |
36 | 9655 | 9191.43644314758 | 463.563556852416 |
37 | 9429 | 9633.91207251752 | -204.912072517522 |
38 | 8739 | 8805.93614546096 | -66.9361454609625 |
39 | 9552 | 9174.25034309644 | 377.749656903561 |
40 | 9687 | 9587.13501396037 | 99.864986039629 |
41 | 9019 | 8702.36240768842 | 316.637592311577 |
42 | 9672 | 9569.24247389957 | 102.757526100426 |
43 | 9206 | 9533.56534036741 | -327.565340367411 |
44 | 9069 | 9529.10504389932 | -460.105043899324 |
45 | 9788 | 9346.48317977296 | 441.516820227038 |
46 | 10312 | 10312.1941513574 | -0.194151357416558 |
47 | 10105 | 9829.08633628827 | 275.913663711728 |
48 | 9863 | 9759.78481102365 | 103.215188976354 |
49 | 9656 | 9850.20625084769 | -194.206250847692 |
50 | 9295 | 9079.62754159286 | 215.372458407144 |
51 | 9946 | 9740.26702857129 | 205.732971428706 |
52 | 9701 | 10023.4477783762 | -322.447778376161 |
53 | 9049 | 9175.04657764439 | -126.046577644394 |
54 | 10190 | 9906.03808870955 | 283.961911290446 |
55 | 9706 | 9673.32466077427 | 32.6753392257342 |
56 | 9765 | 9651.81359426895 | 113.186405731052 |
57 | 9893 | 10009.7694133085 | -116.769413308479 |
58 | 9994 | 10733.3832933037 | -739.383293303727 |
59 | 10433 | 10283.3685552977 | 149.631444702296 |
60 | 10073 | 10101.6100228502 | -28.61002285022 |
61 | 10112 | 10018.9463439206 | 93.0536560794408 |
62 | 9266 | 9460.26384707428 | -194.263847074282 |
63 | 9820 | 10070.9014032279 | -250.901403227925 |
64 | 10097 | 10019.9231308056 | 77.0768691943904 |
65 | 9115 | 9285.0604147138 | -170.0604147138 |
66 | 10411 | 10212.247197839 | 198.752802160956 |
67 | 9678 | 9823.76969802744 | -145.76969802744 |
68 | 10408 | 9800.50024374482 | 607.499756255182 |
69 | 10153 | 10095.6073300513 | 57.3926699486983 |
70 | 10368 | 10531.7503168496 | -163.750316849628 |
71 | 10581 | 10587.9446430433 | -6.94464304330722 |
72 | 10597 | 10296.1614075419 | 300.838592458134 |
73 | 10680 | 10317.9752466026 | 362.024753397398 |
74 | 9738 | 9641.77879042952 | 96.2212095704836 |
75 | 9556 | 10297.3020308051 | -741.30203080506 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
76 | 10363.8533840296 | 10016.4065350005 | 10711.3002330587 |
77 | 9480.82132824729 | 9126.12587856959 | 9835.51677792499 |
78 | 10656.2340501095 | 10286.1890039608 | 11026.2790962582 |
79 | 10065.601195526 | 9684.83604942378 | 10446.3663416282 |
80 | 10448.0277219286 | 10047.2370886207 | 10848.8183552365 |
81 | 10400.7775178304 | 9980.75076141529 | 10820.8042742455 |
82 | 10726.7959501908 | 10279.0268031933 | 11174.5650971883 |
83 | 10882.2255549649 | 10405.5277085753 | 11358.9234013545 |
84 | 10736.8662356812 | 10235.1281847289 | 11238.6042866336 |
85 | 10746.9752793547 | 10214.5636849092 | 11279.3868738003 |
86 | 9869.05669412186 | 9332.34795433439 | 10405.7654339093 |
87 | 10089.7332209743 | 9629.77161408455 | 10549.6948278641 |