| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ma1 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.1978 | 0.235 | -0.0668 | -0.6943 |
| (p-val) | (0.5557 ) | (0.0045 ) | (0.8495 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.135 | 0.2464 | 0 | -0.6953 |
| (p-val) | (0.0089 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -0.535786077633948 |
| 1.80332855565012 |
| 5.24799076999122 |
| 9.68652000417131 |
| 49.0568075730675 |
| -4.94502560769483 |
| 21.0036438320643 |
| -27.7192041142245 |
| -17.4882141837301 |
| 44.6603400932075 |
| -42.9897431334976 |
| -7.79319348197493 |
| 24.5941610222706 |
| -30.2824081477398 |
| -31.572230651581 |
| -33.0849440418959 |
| -17.7367811379811 |
| 2.98407306266134 |
| -32.6558075480782 |
| -27.3174285839226 |
| 27.445210999347 |
| -26.6164878863966 |
| 28.0723722152786 |
| -4.65228968945295 |
| -65.3095693243161 |
| -33.7941470922737 |
| 25.0545788233991 |
| 8.50547173058738 |
| 2.49155738894657 |
| -0.544447089984941 |
| -10.398345796429 |
| 20.8411042201103 |
| 26.9533173562487 |
| -0.610311251966813 |
| 1.79149129635143 |
| -34.0652663140967 |
| -15.2301298210955 |
| -0.514117802569563 |
| -3.10547962427189 |
| 23.834816088823 |
| 12.6804050104744 |
| -17.9589359466973 |
| 2.60711529381849 |
| 24.5933816425016 |
| -12.5772178075365 |
| -10.9200054293255 |
| -3.05044983258529 |
| -3.55599765822422 |
| 3.4714377280063 |
| -30.1004873502837 |
| 17.9732236797123 |
| 29.5346776620841 |
| -14.4918019062721 |
| -18.0755521499292 |
| -0.949562377995264 |
| 16.1811579588682 |
| 23.2672025649063 |
| 9.53766322550318 |
| 21.044837629927 |
| 27.2081470584311 |
| 49.4577667304037 |
| 20.0757524602449 |
| 8.16987081637508 |
| -10.2044021673921 |
| -9.95697215452817 |
| -27.4788010272908 |
| 2.8119289447733 |
| 13.9192746653826 |
| 1.58145836282293 |
| -36.8470917219903 |
| -1.84976421284815 |
| -11.6959958878678 |
| -6.54224003682976 |
| -19.7485699989048 |
| -6.24409099875707 |
| 16.4333857236555 |
| -27.1231318471439 |
| 1.92763451820602 |
| -16.4161192027983 |
| 16.9762016518603 |
| -10.7587248221083 |
| 19.9059200315059 |
| 3.22727315648513 |
| -2.58169305527629 |
| -28.5574602058046 |
| -2.85792619478331 |
| 25.9547040401261 |
| -19.9696245098259 |
| 33.6585942227262 |
| 17.3068642149539 |
| -23.3799350167219 |
| -32.981553697934 |
| -3.15821976206872 |
| 10.3881645850221 |
| 30.0261593103431 |
| -2.38684844902672 |
| -17.655712992256 |
| -18.0437313800081 |
| -8.66039962018795 |
| 12.0757218130892 |
| 19.4703052074736 |
| 20.4783174961431 |
| -25.3366313952597 |
| -4.37702619046655 |
| 14.3684753077665 |
| 14.6249007851796 |
| 29.8486386533699 |
| 6.91155487792489 |
| 40.4393032192865 |
| 53.3147783546126 |
| -0.471752891777252 |
| -4.9884284537684 |
| -20.5308805674512 |
| 3.74166143068822 |
| 5.73164615784901 |
| -19.6331330107282 |
| -44.1163908442212 |
| -5.96656643828799 |
| -25.3514183962826 |
| 28.2667948481753 |
| -9.36877501686466 |
| -20.1950260026411 |
| -23.2778406987634 |
| -46.3551355975861 |
| 6.13716102675656 |
| 25.3900168503999 |
| -0.747939288034177 |
| 8.8861691107041 |
| 7.1437055705504 |
| 19.4501685908218 |
| 4.84148650415368 |
| -34.0797918124938 |
| -12.1139113607141 |
| -30.1038649037426 |
| 55.8492115081731 |
| -16.5377014546868 |
| -13.8471822578548 |
| 45.9355591798967 |
| -16.727607110372 |
| 7.85469067236583 |
| -18.3531012048354 |
| 33.373900190425 |
| 9.24314156038296 |
| 33.6653493343943 |
| 9.30677273521994 |
| 15.6773392601956 |
| -26.8749429633929 |
| -16.6710313489467 |
| 2.68555503635537 |
| 17.0031496575083 |
| -16.2993718198376 |
| -24.8678911086769 |
| -7.3795740545547 |
| -7.39413752167426 |
| -22.8144559963025 |
| -2.67991420823596 |
| -7.53415148588088 |
| -20.840975788009 |
| 2.29903701291207 |
| 6.76824920606978 |
| 30.3709472500401 |
| -31.6095703297463 |
| -17.7664701494565 |
| 45.2671568415647 |
| -8.71652991598912 |
| -23.298963462651 |
| 24.8882988724671 |
| -12.7545489650089 |
| 14.3173159842609 |
| 21.0090314229976 |
| -37.3546660671697 |
| -0.462653499286088 |
| 13.5695133198159 |
| 13.7234166657493 |
| -15.913214263719 |
| -16.0778077551122 |
| 9.41137430967196 |
| 6.69181270531899 |
| 10.7426638203563 |
| -22.5460485089368 |
| -1.95861915413306 |
| -11.0537246976886 |
| 0.705426935828268 |
| 10.2107070582385 |
| -21.3748653141671 |
| 43.3018961130264 |
| -45.4360577380799 |
| 12.3201615450677 |
| 11.0943006585951 |
| 0.096411077029277 |
| -27.3885795290391 |
| 4.64093377579308 |
| -14.9046742775138 |
| 20.3536919039058 |
| -22.3818974654318 |
| 22.1817148282644 |
| -9.46240362068936 |
| 17.3354976380172 |
| -16.3629809944537 |
| -5.47176497475906 |
| 2.61038173653281 |
| -3.21061248542679 |
| -11.171286123285 |
| -14.899160366726 |
| -16.7673150317931 |
| -16.9047338798341 |
| 26.8128232344252 |
| 14.5290887466078 |
| 20.2011017960029 |
| 3.92447979175518 |
| -10.4464407004931 |
| -0.905441983068982 |
| -0.207693044051942 |
| 6.2143634226908 |
| -15.6891951418497 |
| 6.77851287436614 |
| -8.84991720551221 |
| -0.673648495520985 |
| 4.19751012775583 |
| 4.56020845692691 |
| -10.0412523357158 |
| 44.2435014765213 |
| 10.8030659288014 |
| -19.165623794387 |
| 23.4296061471043 |
| 11.8616152329134 |
| -34.9371756972629 |
| -22.8080165313761 |
| -12.830774824263 |
| 26.9769374898433 |
| -8.48091953206129 |
| -14.2809994556184 |
| -0.301613962279873 |
| 48.36709351928 |
| 3.54403110837646 |
| -30.3091839665678 |
| 6.50820980839244 |
| -2.23878809266862 |
| -7.63770369972204 |
| -10.8815143377566 |
| -1.47475944455399 |
| 0.102117983202003 |
| 11.9104913073003 |
| 14.8507194848801 |
| -12.941241878887 |
| 6.24391903489292 |
| 25.2986436374466 |
| -4.78347667476912 |
| 23.8089871547477 |
| -10.4963556764009 |
| -31.0307618419464 |
| 2.59669531699033 |
| 34.9767681951572 |
| 28.3435981668313 |
| 7.36518050303417 |
| 2.38529662466785 |
| -5.29241601742365 |
| 22.0540142797787 |
| 18.0524528523978 |
| -6.64077377624751 |
| 13.1224503587588 |
| 0.783917042000466 |
| 25.4884606399704 |
| 4.69157726238586 |
| 10.9289604952485 |
| -19.825282711604 |
| -10.9803137932064 |
| -16.8835432959217 |
| -7.33715152908722 |
| 5.82952188226014 |
| 18.6417843962628 |
| 2.35873083794166 |
| -20.1150391410235 |
| -19.8055046220144 |
| 17.6118309248653 |
| -4.04080927107035 |
| 9.86890794578408 |
| -15.8966977929958 |
| 1.09112254297255 |
| -14.7445582832771 |
| -11.5093097130694 |
| 4.13696069820829 |
| 5.17186038373173 |
| -1.41267814446688 |
| -8.85470438086011 |
| -4.54050299115624 |
| -34.1955471147744 |
| -1.95185012719753 |
| -1.24543203085155 |
| 13.4448460149119 |
| -10.7265076576397 |
| 4.8681372233863 |
| -9.54677777338971 |
| -4.42644859536996 |
| -0.107140970896513 |
| -2.15844780425231 |
| 10.9217241997778 |
| -25.8871916927688 |
| 25.005799125052 |
| 12.2988181804388 |
| 24.4606700699412 |
| -4.08031986947537 |
| -21.9810846532775 |
| -7.26935273636021 |
| 17.9768308787942 |
| 15.7840097583318 |
| 10.0431826406408 |
| -12.042476754552 |
| 39.3718391707167 |
| 2.2034910184262 |
| 40.2228137711413 |
| 39.3479291474666 |
| 114.974518450786 |
| -28.6690013478994 |
| 0.156176267138507 |
| -21.0525716667766 |
| -1.12901830225784 |
| -16.1614551874676 |
| -12.1617109164305 |
| -11.8766268882438 |
| -13.627855256437 |
| -0.250400291052471 |
| -23.6785125890969 |
| -6.06956761903377 |
| -7.49129446040227 |
| -20.3371736425852 |
| -24.6454315458077 |
| -8.48664191374207 |
| -24.2615580298184 |
| 37.6619925344915 |
| 24.1516753804574 |
| 4.63512149936896 |
| -32.5328178937367 |
| 3.13493008133764 |
| 12.4660611635298 |
| -13.420749354291 |
| -26.847259081983 |
| 28.5294985001926 |
| -23.1193706966602 |
| -50.1508880400442 |
| 5.13847390132831 |
| 27.6707714228382 |
| -29.5315265688259 |
| 16.9620887788173 |
| -15.2751466149094 |
| -0.82838275057452 |
| -4.22631866789977 |
| -46.2281761135785 |
| 8.98767122275707 |
| -14.7881346073063 |
| 14.7367636182362 |
| -9.01328619495145 |
| 13.1091560060839 |
| -31.7595079945684 |
| 42.6848788470287 |
| -18.4697853899528 |
| -2.30122992502967 |
| -8.20934904739926 |
| -1.02181286714437 |
| 26.203721653556 |
