| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.599546669114855 |
| beta | 0.000254057295303989 |
| gamma | 0.204732865939058 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 50 | 47.7900641025641 | 2.20993589743588 |
| 14 | 59 | 57.736863921012 | 1.263136078988 |
| 15 | 63 | 61.7412054618745 | 1.25879453812552 |
| 16 | 32 | 31.0764691182909 | 0.923530881709127 |
| 17 | 39 | 37.2525339043841 | 1.74746609561593 |
| 18 | 47 | 43.9228524761883 | 3.07714752381174 |
| 19 | 53 | 57.5575124945828 | -4.55751249458279 |
| 20 | 60 | 45.6558099991105 | 14.3441900008895 |
| 21 | 57 | 57.9220785043515 | -0.922078504351525 |
| 22 | 52 | 54.2020327938641 | -2.20203279386408 |
| 23 | 70 | 48.4225926739285 | 21.5774073260715 |
| 24 | 90 | 82.1949899915166 | 7.80501000848344 |
| 25 | 74 | 88.3508982697787 | -14.3508982697787 |
| 26 | 62 | 88.2956449523528 | -26.2956449523528 |
| 27 | 55 | 75.7772215610942 | -20.7772215610942 |
| 28 | 84 | 31.8703881295873 | 52.1296118704127 |
| 29 | 94 | 68.8192488753842 | 25.1807511246158 |
| 30 | 70 | 89.6563095245326 | -19.6563095245326 |
| 31 | 108 | 89.0401823195102 | 18.9598176804898 |
| 32 | 139 | 92.7963892707733 | 46.2036107292267 |
| 33 | 120 | 122.925598789992 | -2.92559878999204 |
| 34 | 97 | 117.912456798863 | -20.9124567988632 |
| 35 | 126 | 102.875020425448 | 23.1249795745517 |
| 36 | 149 | 136.456548020254 | 12.5434519797456 |
| 37 | 158 | 143.648053466912 | 14.3519465330883 |
| 38 | 124 | 159.83771907421 | -35.83771907421 |
| 39 | 140 | 142.064882144732 | -2.06488214473163 |
| 40 | 109 | 115.371228310759 | -6.37122831075924 |
| 41 | 114 | 115.044688453582 | -1.0446884535823 |
| 42 | 77 | 116.486381579621 | -39.4863815796208 |
| 43 | 120 | 107.148177210225 | 12.8518227897754 |
| 44 | 133 | 109.476030577709 | 23.5239694222912 |
| 45 | 110 | 121.976442768578 | -11.976442768578 |
| 46 | 92 | 110.057460400272 | -18.0574604002716 |
| 47 | 97 | 100.337846662451 | -3.33784666245091 |
| 48 | 78 | 117.177775097578 | -39.1777750975779 |
| 49 | 99 | 93.4920209941577 | 5.5079790058423 |
| 50 | 107 | 100.246879108727 | 6.75312089127283 |
| 51 | 112 | 110.767035813776 | 1.23296418622445 |
| 52 | 90 | 85.6869361765148 | 4.31306382348524 |
| 53 | 98 | 92.1938583068416 | 5.80614169315844 |
| 54 | 125 | 94.5833370518228 | 30.4166629481772 |
| 55 | 155 | 131.448987863044 | 23.5510121369565 |
| 56 | 190 | 141.070820266767 | 48.9291797332332 |
| 57 | 236 | 165.900525606688 | 70.0994743933123 |
| 58 | 189 | 202.712048904629 | -13.7120489046292 |
| 59 | 174 | 196.825896653929 | -22.8258966539286 |
| 60 | 178 | 199.061873217312 | -21.0618732173125 |
| 61 | 136 | 189.922225967323 | -53.9222259673228 |
| 62 | 161 | 161.160108293495 | -0.160108293495 |
| 63 | 171 | 167.093954611671 | 3.90604538832943 |
| 64 | 149 | 143.880492466881 | 5.11950753311859 |
| 65 | 184 | 151.004925135336 | 32.9950748646638 |
| 66 | 155 | 171.728895239889 | -16.7288952398893 |
| 67 | 276 | 179.774255417363 | 96.2257445826367 |
| 68 | 224 | 235.068263431824 | -11.0682634318237 |
| 69 | 213 | 225.672858153722 | -12.6728581537218 |
| 70 | 279 | 205.985019020215 | 73.0149809797847 |
| 71 | 268 | 251.359653191409 | 16.6403468085908 |
| 72 | 287 | 277.419213255868 | 9.5807867441315 |
| 73 | 238 | 283.978954219321 | -45.9789542193208 |
| 74 | 213 | 264.40991830875 | -51.4099183087499 |
| 75 | 257 | 239.965653832119 | 17.0343461678812 |
| 76 | 293 | 224.739881826949 | 68.2601181730512 |
| 77 | 212 | 272.032254193065 | -60.032254193065 |
| 78 | 246 | 232.917953652841 | 13.0820463471587 |
| 79 | 353 | 268.114221667751 | 84.8857783322491 |
| 80 | 339 | 307.828224085337 | 31.1717759146632 |
| 81 | 308 | 323.648008876894 | -15.6480088768942 |
| 82 | 247 | 309.223043865918 | -62.2230438659178 |
| 83 | 257 | 268.895059198539 | -11.8950591985392 |
| 84 | 322 | 277.263997244318 | 44.7360027556817 |
| 85 | 298 | 300.347637489439 | -2.34763748943891 |
| 86 | 273 | 306.500820501525 | -33.5008205015253 |
| 87 | 312 | 298.416563564131 | 13.5834364358686 |
| 88 | 249 | 285.332277483523 | -36.3322774835232 |
| 89 | 286 | 259.393196284367 | 26.6068037156325 |
| 90 | 279 | 278.22533903372 | 0.774660966279669 |
| 91 | 309 | 311.935716973363 | -2.93571697336267 |
| 92 | 401 | 294.585527624356 | 106.414472375644 |
| 93 | 309 | 351.682403620074 | -42.6824036200738 |
| 94 | 328 | 317.230588644585 | 10.7694113554147 |
| 95 | 353 | 324.802323793719 | 28.1976762062812 |
| 96 | 354 | 361.868934949182 | -7.86893494918195 |
| 97 | 327 | 349.562505184488 | -22.5625051844882 |
| 98 | 324 | 341.047971460294 | -17.0479714602938 |
| 99 | 285 | 346.696882778886 | -61.6968827788856 |
| 100 | 243 | 284.383347293607 | -41.3833472936065 |
| 101 | 241 | 260.572468374607 | -19.5724683746066 |
| 102 | 287 | 249.5895088826 | 37.4104911173997 |
| 103 | 355 | 304.955557705566 | 50.0444422944335 |
| 104 | 460 | 328.337676149729 | 131.662323850271 |
| 105 | 364 | 388.354862634803 | -24.3548626348034 |
| 106 | 487 | 369.283249174597 | 117.716750825403 |
| 107 | 452 | 442.429755700516 | 9.5702442994837 |
| 108 | 391 | 465.39453635014 | -74.3945363501397 |
| 109 | 500 | 412.011244213454 | 87.9887557865464 |
| 110 | 451 | 470.25931097455 | -19.25931097455 |
| 111 | 375 | 470.951346323492 | -95.9513463234917 |
| 112 | 372 | 389.790377417659 | -17.7903774176593 |
| 113 | 302 | 381.94065590069 | -79.9406559006899 |
| 114 | 316 | 339.454643045351 | -23.4546430453505 |
| 115 | 398 | 359.374428937588 | 38.6255710624122 |
| 116 | 394 | 382.609601004017 | 11.3903989959832 |
| 117 | 431 | 357.716296932004 | 73.2837030679958 |
| 118 | 431 | 408.835669786584 | 22.1643302134156 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 119 | 415.817223507703 | 337.30404946931 | 494.330397546096 |
| 120 | 426.148482996577 | 334.599331842624 | 517.69763415053 |
| 121 | 430.680888752416 | 327.727977345786 | 533.633800159046 |
| 122 | 427.368903813322 | 314.150162193847 | 540.587645432797 |
| 123 | 433.309207731908 | 310.676455893599 | 555.941959570217 |
| 124 | 416.087348889191 | 284.709164392085 | 547.465533386298 |
| 125 | 413.814746638846 | 274.233980217054 | 553.395513060638 |
| 126 | 423.906532007991 | 276.575336774627 | 571.237727241355 |
| 127 | 463.000333807825 | 308.302887643434 | 617.697779972216 |
| 128 | 460.861045270137 | 299.129023321444 | 622.59306721883 |
| 129 | 434.227585823507 | 265.751110918511 | 602.704060728502 |
| 130 | 437.222263895119 | 262.257904226568 | 612.18662356367 |
