Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.859090117482483
beta0.0739570283331473
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
13299.5239.39449786324860.105502136752
14347.4339.4926874107287.90731258927207
15338.3339.929491887076-1.62949188707591
16327.7329.223957559414-1.52395755941427
17351.6353.166427606572-1.56642760657212
18396.6400.389554566408-3.78955456640767
19438.8384.59954292541454.2004570745862
20395.6427.763510672175-32.1635106721746
21363.5393.902014378474-30.4020143784744
22378.8345.07635395864433.7236460413558
23357410.295571899322-53.2955718993219
24369383.104598762055-14.1045987620546
25464.8456.9763496283617.82365037163873
26479.1502.592157461936-23.4921574619364
27431.3470.502849795591-39.2028497955905
28366.5420.938726552774-54.4387265527742
29326.3389.46011810615-63.1601181061498
30355.1369.585513312266-14.4855133122662
31331.6338.228558771718-6.62855877171762
32261.3298.551050153372-37.251050153372
33249241.8295371108767.17046288912383
34205.5217.967581386782-12.4675813867821
35235.6211.95733168465323.6426683153473
36240.9241.988791886558-1.08879188655763
37264.9316.562325993441-51.6623259934408
38253.8289.312251522452-35.5122515224519
39232.3226.5697412315845.73025876841558
40193.8198.202113954522-4.40211395452158
41177196.401440515672-19.401440515672
42213.2211.6793624026651.52063759733463
43207.2186.89836567166320.3016343283371
44180.6159.47044742181721.1295525781834
45188.6156.30095820613632.2990417938635
46175.4149.99447971849725.4055202815026
47199182.75018236711516.2498176328848
48179.6203.617154073353-24.0171540733529
49225.8250.581620945881-24.781620945881
50234249.622858322216-15.6228583222158
51200.2211.964952702826-11.7649527028261
52183.6168.21438552814615.3856144718541
53178.2183.63160372395-5.43160372394988
54203.2217.078589038287-13.8785890382874
55208.5183.95588261151624.5441173884841
56191.8162.80003652863828.999963471362
57172.8170.9766184539671.82338154603298
58148138.5919296298159.40807037018453
59159.4156.372335669963.02766433003956
60154.5159.424275934004-4.92427593400402
61213.2223.114609211199-9.91460921119921
62196.4237.594180801579-41.1941808015787
63182.8178.2627997603434.5372002396569
64176.4153.12978183566523.2702181643353
65153.6173.674935132272-20.0749351322718
66173.2193.709042121921-20.5090421219207
67171160.24037388483610.7596261151641
68151.2126.93052816106124.2694718389391
69161.9125.97343500234835.9265649976524
70157.2124.88167557347732.318324426523
71201.7163.82707632669637.8729236733041
72236.4200.28973145661436.1102685433862
73356.1305.7324136331650.3675863668398
74398.3378.62546212389319.674537876107
75403.7392.9303782936410.7696217063604
76384.6391.087800000895-6.48780000089471
77365.8393.366236037197-27.5662360371974
78368.1419.833367569817-51.7333675698166
79367.9374.892290362544-6.99229036254417
80347338.053774113878.9462258861297
81343.3334.4198121734088.88018782659191
82292.9316.710509488026-23.8105094880263
83311.5311.77886280597-0.278862805969766
84300.9316.353298389015-15.4532983890151
85366.9377.367075471285-10.4670754712852
86356.9387.667386022294-30.7673860222942
87329.7348.173160300294-18.4731603002941
88316.2307.7085006900688.49149930993161
89269309.768910811575-40.7689108115746
90289.3310.533091409828-21.2330914098276
91266.2289.081542105649-22.881542105649
92253.6230.81166774221622.7883322577844
93233.8229.9125323951943.88746760480572
94228.4193.84288977491234.5571102250879
95253.6236.61385954401516.986140455985
96260.1249.22293544594910.8770645540507
97306.6330.573069195612-23.9730691956122
98309.2322.565480154259-13.3654801542592
99309.5297.01456138711112.4854386128889
100271286.173816735988-15.1738167359881
101279.9258.68681702117421.2131829788265
102317.9317.1145787306170.78542126938305
103298.4317.408182699632-19.0081826996322
104246.7272.208856180457-25.508856180457
105227.3227.393813157566-0.093813157565819
106209.1192.21164188143416.8883581185663
107259.9216.19113515043643.7088648495642
108266251.45795582630714.5420441736933
109320.6331.840111835214-11.2401118352141
110308.5337.869195516842-29.3691955168418
111282.2302.798685634964-20.5986856349645
112262.7258.1226023264134.57739767358652
113263.5252.47023978889311.0297602111074
114313.1298.36331492353614.7366850764638
115284.3307.831866174957-23.5318661749574
116252.6257.521531948132-4.92153194813207
117250.3234.9733707723115.3266292276898
118246.5217.41073864868729.0892613513131
119312.7258.40540905845954.2945909415409
120333.2302.08322849751631.1167715024839
121446.4397.55149551400148.8485044859989
122511.6460.94521116654650.6547888334541
123515.5509.2404135230366.25958647696393
124506.4506.2740724244710.125927575528863
125483.2512.512377188381-29.3123771883814
126522.3536.512774692708-14.2127746927076
127509.8526.121899968407-16.3218999684067
128460.7495.489232971886-34.7892329718856
129405.8459.098800682661-53.2988006826609
130375389.12347213967-14.1234721396697
131378.5398.404078113026-19.9040781130258
132406.8372.21618999889234.583810001108
133467.8470.525432412902-2.72543241290151
134469.8483.954123473323-14.1541234733231
135429.8460.28633560603-30.4863356060296
136355.8412.522391646799-56.7223916467988
137332.7349.797567198552-17.0975671985524
138378371.2181956990136.78180430098689
139360.5364.699191314941-4.19919131494066
140334.7328.781850809165.9181491908401
141319.5314.2439783904495.25602160955128
142323.1293.30246578662129.797534213379
143363.6335.50093976782228.0990602321783
144352.1357.280180836401-5.18018083640141
145411.9412.695121167561-0.795121167561206
146388.6422.818142247436-34.2181422474355
147416.4374.98383573686441.4161642631363
148360.7385.233730369834-24.5337303698336
149338357.730557989377-19.7305579893768
150417.2382.07192241626435.1280775837355
151388.4401.976465130282-13.5764651302825
152371.1362.45191713348.64808286659962
153331.5353.362534337187-21.8625343371872
154353.7314.05541302733739.6445869726626
155396.7366.57323390524130.1267660947594
156447387.6330878634459.3669121365601
157533.5505.44674899556128.0532510044386
158565.4543.80544343753321.5945565624673
159542.3566.284953845626-23.9849538456258
160488.7518.609150799527-29.9091507995273
161467.1494.376039391523-27.2760393915233
162531.3526.6970884566424.60291154335778
163496.1518.307181163578-22.2071811635775
164444478.74373959271-34.7437395927096
165403.4429.564702208678-26.1647022086784
166386.3396.442329515062-10.1423295150618
167394.1402.898035530584-8.79803553058372
168404.1390.21557417598613.8844258240144
169462.1457.2308840541564.86911594584421
170448.1465.976809417772-17.8768094177719
171432.3436.830999113481-4.53099911348147
172386.3394.975883254901-8.67588325490073
173395.2380.64693002771914.5530699722806
174421.9447.344493179193-25.4444931791932
175382.9401.403746337687-18.5037463376871
176384.2355.53106048661228.668939513388
177345.5358.342768894614-12.8427688946145
178323.4336.073935863106-12.6739358631065
179372.6337.53442842992135.0655715700792
180376365.50808892571710.4919110742829
181462.7427.90017818524734.7998218147528
182487460.6174229414826.3825770585196
183444.2475.650295578874-31.4502955788744
184399.3412.650010123333-13.3500101233332
185394.9399.846762703051-4.94676270305087
186455.4445.18523678709710.2147632129033
187414434.151738608324-20.1517386083236
188375.5396.700384154189-21.2003841541886
189347350.841962139089-3.84196213908945
190339.4336.9228191706332.47718082936734
191385.8359.68248802311626.1175119768845
192378.8377.4937989241311.30620107586861
193451.8435.82365094064815.976349059352
194446.1450.391690398526-4.29169039852593
195422.5428.182394150983-5.68239415098287
196383.1388.765764693681-5.66576469368067
197352.8383.132498938431-30.3324989384314
198445.3406.57026663676538.7297333632353
199367.5415.337997290173-47.8379972901729
200355.1351.7780598017173.32194019828319
201326.2328.814714534784-2.61471453478356
202319.8316.3005086802323.4994913197678
203331.8342.794735054682-10.9947350546822
204340.9322.39431225766118.5056877423388
205394.1395.827214314609-1.72721431460906
206417.2389.46549335058427.7345066494158
207369.9393.743594079107-23.8435940791065
208349.2336.74328649326212.4567135067383
209321.4342.370587319678-20.9705873196783
210405.7383.34495918671222.355040813288
211342.9364.569053506187-21.6690535061871
212316.5331.084150283862-14.5841502838621
213284.2291.148261888223-6.94826188822259
214270.9274.744300734959-3.84430073495855
215288.8291.392175220458-2.59217522045793
216278.8281.406079633968-2.60607963396836
217324.4331.54857308869-7.14857308869011
218310.9322.033931876074-11.1339318760741
219299280.53620945200718.4637905479934
220273262.5683938580510.4316061419495
221279.3259.18860509352820.1113949064718
222359.2341.61418287410917.5858171258907
223305312.287709889242-7.28770988924248
224282.1292.819794800887-10.7197948008871
225250.3258.189017955906-7.88901795590607
226246.5242.2637795270694.23622047293088
227257.9267.392926941993-9.49292694199272
228266.5252.40100018443914.0989998155615
229315.9318.240445580058-2.34044558005814
230318.4314.5861962460113.8138037539893
231295.4293.3416064871962.05839351280383
232266.4262.3470021429774.05299785702323
233245.8256.644862137132-10.844862137132
234362.8311.94698767559750.853012324403
235324.9309.63540494844615.2645950515535
236294.2312.431512532644-18.2315125326439
237289.5274.6422900687114.8577099312905
238295.2284.30824957786610.8917504221344
239290.3317.984531433333-27.6845314333331
240272294.296902373421-22.2969023734211
241307.4327.848256250714-20.4482562507143
242328.7309.65021558842419.0497844115758
243292.9302.360636400324-9.46063640032435
244249.1262.132621337371-13.0326213373706
245230.4238.949005941196-8.5490059411961
246361.5304.35905495314657.1409450468537
247321.7302.27585778783519.4241422121649
248277.2304.030983001413-26.8309830014134
249260.7263.075789422741-2.37578942274075
250251255.841984245482-4.84198424548197
251257.6268.030343313088-10.4303433130876
252241.8258.485597270857-16.685597270857
253287.5296.035389246711-8.53538924671096
254292.3293.311460964114-1.01146096411446
255274.7263.16967956431611.5303204356844
256254.2240.20475181104313.9952481889568
257230242.32282547309-12.3228254730903
258339314.95794196668224.0420580333183
259318.2278.23294040030439.9670595996962
260287291.531480962159-4.53148096215887
261295.8275.00936559521620.7906344047843
262284290.631809056493-6.63180905649301
263271303.683088525287-32.6830885252873
264262.7275.913953207461-13.2139532074609
265340.6319.58936998493621.0106300150645
266379.4347.18028410872532.2197158912746
267373.3353.33766049523519.9623395047646
268355.2344.48298556246310.7170144375368
269338.4346.387055178612-7.98705517861242
270466.9434.45740781391632.4425921860839
271451414.313193742936.6868062570998
272422425.434985112462-3.43498511246219
273429.2420.4042296437978.79577035620258
274425.9428.077042793037-2.17704279303666
275460.7447.78665426944112.9133457305589
276463.6471.331531394195-7.73153139419452
277541.4534.2869271765657.11307282343535
278544.2560.382569088626-16.1825690886265
279517.5529.020070591109-11.5200705911088
280469.4495.605387268522-26.2053872685225
281439.4464.597282316282-25.1972823162824
282549543.9290551355595.07094486444112
283533499.47872223419833.5212777658019
284506.1500.6368993950915.46310060490879
285484503.948599258845-19.9485992588453
286457482.529699094871-25.5296990948714
287481.5479.9683989844361.53160101556426
288469.5485.767856568266-16.2678565682657
289544.7537.8807614233626.81923857663776
290541.2554.821948326006-13.6219483260058
291521.5520.859498155130.640501844870414
292469.7491.138419523215-21.4384195232149
293434.4459.986377618668-25.5863776186683
294542.6538.8430095992133.75699040078678
295517.3492.78335613912624.5166438608738
296485.7477.1905023343878.50949766561251
297465.8474.670562774213-8.87056277421254
298447457.818104143249-10.8181041432489
299426.6468.47914872837-41.8791487283704
300411.6428.489160341765-16.8891603417648
301467.5477.294453731161-9.79445373116096
302484.5469.99999767691814.5000023230824
303451.2456.91068802228-5.71068802227978
304417.4412.9228295511214.47717044887889
305379.9399.397295919912-19.4972959199116
306484.7483.9538120658830.746187934116961
307455434.37559840502220.6244015949785
308420.8409.07884621890811.7211537810923
309416.5402.96849497446313.531505025537
310376.3402.609844364403-26.3098443644027
311405.6392.12384130083113.4761586991695
312405.8403.2659893177882.5340106822116
313500.8471.04691955406829.7530804459316
314514504.9530388556049.04696114439605
315475.5487.787076964132-12.2870769641323
316430.1442.623129418833-12.5231294188334
317414.4413.0724918328071.3275081671926
318538521.65294278660116.3470572133986
319526492.55057594978233.4494240502176
320488.5482.1042231065966.39577689340354
321520.2476.42274265976743.7772573402327
322504.4503.1043187926781.29568120732159
323568.5530.36456847963738.1354315203625
324610.6571.14052026284939.4594797371509
325818686.816402393339131.183597606661
326830.9823.7244543834087.17554561659188
327835.9820.60737393242415.2926260675756
328782819.518684587184-37.518684587184
329762.3789.273262897894-26.9732628978936
330856.9892.686051835608-35.7860518356083
331820.9834.923070258566-14.0230702585663
332769.6790.581771362801-20.9817713628011
333752.2775.6088075684-23.4088075684001
334724.4743.277586017262-18.8775860172617
335723.1761.808702989748-38.7087029897482
336719.5735.283276729283-15.7832767292828
337817.4811.443684328315.95631567168994
338803.3810.358043321419-7.0580433214194
339752.5782.314249740825-29.8142497408249
340689718.324599906683-29.3245999066827
341630.4680.416753181557-50.0167531815574
342765.5745.13937646485420.3606235351459
343757.7724.59346743095233.1065325690481
344732.2708.67000900019423.5299909998065
345702.6723.33256946829-20.7325694682895
346683.3685.846910809715-2.54691080971486
347709.5708.5586701269160.941329873084214
348702.2714.791330063755-12.5913300637546
349784.8792.424749328078-7.62474932807822
350810.9772.64253303656438.2574669634361
351755.6778.006062406021-22.4060624060206
352656.8718.604184623484-61.8041846234844
353615.1645.968578939629-30.8685789396293
354745.3734.36553119838710.9344688016126
355694.1704.226286331973-10.1262863319729
356675.7643.77423741852631.9257625814743
357643.7653.907648081523-10.2076480815227
358622.1623.190251191343-1.09025119134321
359634.6642.901356733183-8.30135673318296
360588633.956006137392-45.9560061373918
361689.7676.17532814358613.5246718564142
362673.9674.920698593875-1.02069859387518
363647.9629.39015581598318.5098441840165
364568.8593.584269672518-24.7842696725185
365545.7553.460453189694-7.76045318969386
366632.6665.417236164465-32.8172361644653
367643.8589.76127362841454.0387263715857
368593.1589.4726828545183.62731714548238
369579.7566.67458230680513.0254176931948
370546555.993761806185-9.99376180618549
371562.9565.266689948438-2.36668994843762
372572.5554.71776084741717.7822391525827


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373662.72897232512615.085067232266710.372877417973
374649.600121689987584.77571700078714.424526379194
375609.557625618189529.496678783946689.618572452432
376552.432638033117458.034949763829646.830326302406
377538.25734516118429.979761908165646.534928414194
378656.101153149277534.169138380343778.03316791821
379625.712929861724490.216089728413761.209769995036
380573.29925892293424.241236728053722.357281117806
381549.881308357329387.208496636217712.554120078442
382525.111327701875348.73057668874701.492078715009
383545.023966161358354.814088634464735.233843688251
384540.477228178301336.296781563547744.657674793055