| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 675953.3521 | 480082.8737 | 871823.8305 | 0.4714 | 0.04 | 0.6838 | 0.04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 921064.132 | 717084.858 | 1125043.406 | 0.239 | 0.9889 | 0.3769 | 0.7501 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1136238.3665 | 931588.5302 | 1340888.2027 | 0.2732 | 0.9972 | 0.4086 | 0.9969 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1473545.7632 | 1268839.3574 | 1678252.1689 | 0.3481 | 0.9999 | 0.7575 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1589155.7915 | 1384444.6057 | 1793866.9773 | 0.2067 | 0.7631 | 0.2442 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1492516.9779 | 1287805.3881 | 1697228.5677 | 0.4422 | 0.4572 | 0.4892 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2903665.8158 | 2698954.1919 | 3108377.4397 | 0.3581 | 1 | 0.4424 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2734510.0033 | 2529798.3765 | 2939221.6301 | 0.3038 | 0.1045 | 0.3467 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1405930.1226 | 1201218.4955 | 1610641.7496 | 0.4454 | 0 | 0.4958 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359421.0142 | 1154709.3871 | 1564132.6413 | 0.4734 | 0.379 | 0.4589 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 952983.8377 | 748272.2106 | 1157695.4647 | 0.4745 | 0 | 0.456 | 0.8359 |
| 72 | 859626 | 859970.0939 | 655258.4668 | 1064681.721 | 0.4987 | 0.2043 | 0.5348 | 0.5348 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | |||||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | sMAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE | ScaledE | MASE |
| 61 | 0.1478 | 0.0105 | 0.0105 | 0.0105 | 51332179.7686 | 0 | 0 | 0.0187 | 0.0187 |
| 62 | 0.113 | -0.0872 | 0.0488 | 0.047 | 5452365093.7362 | 2751848636.7524 | 52458.0655 | -0.1929 | 0.1058 |
| 63 | 0.0919 | -0.0587 | 0.0521 | 0.0504 | 3966778484.3778 | 3156825252.6275 | 56185.6321 | -0.1646 | 0.1254 |
| 64 | 0.0709 | 0.0269 | 0.0458 | 0.0446 | 1663027717.4692 | 2783375868.8379 | 52757.7091 | 0.1066 | 0.1207 |
| 65 | 0.0657 | -0.0568 | 0.048 | 0.0467 | 7296882465.9451 | 3686077188.2594 | 60713.0726 | -0.2232 | 0.1412 |
| 66 | 0.07 | 0.0101 | 0.0417 | 0.0406 | 230888696.6789 | 3110212439.6626 | 55769.2786 | 0.0397 | 0.1243 |
| 67 | 0.036 | -0.0132 | 0.0376 | 0.0367 | 1441555037.6845 | 2871832810.8086 | 53589.4841 | -0.0992 | 0.1207 |
| 68 | 0.0382 | 0.0192 | 0.0353 | 0.0345 | 2874889567.9712 | 2872214905.4539 | 53593.049 | 0.1401 | 0.1231 |
| 69 | 0.0743 | -0.0103 | 0.0325 | 0.0318 | 205467069.3049 | 2575909590.3263 | 50753.4195 | -0.0375 | 0.1136 |
| 70 | 0.0768 | 0.0051 | 0.0298 | 0.0292 | 48399651.5 | 2323158596.4436 | 48199.1556 | 0.0182 | 0.1041 |
| 71 | 0.1096 | -0.0071 | 0.0277 | 0.0272 | 44740549.1507 | 2116029683.0534 | 46000.3226 | -0.0175 | 0.0962 |
| 72 | 0.1215 | -4e-04 | 0.0255 | 0.0249 | 118400.5923 | 1939703742.8483 | 44042.0679 | -9e-04 | 0.0883 |
