Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[360])
359634.6-------
360588-------
361689.7597.7981500.6832703.51570.04420.57210.57210.5721
362673.9611.7704474.697766.2070.21520.16130.16130.6186
363647.9624.8036461.1729813.23120.40510.30480.30480.6491
364568.8636.5341453.2305850.89140.26780.45860.45860.6714
365545.7647.0771448.2902882.24190.19910.74290.74290.6888
366632.6656.5813445.1213909.00960.42610.80540.80540.7028
367643.8665.1824443.0502932.29490.43770.59450.59450.7144
368593.1673.0006441.677952.85790.28790.5810.5810.7242
369579.7680.1409440.7521971.25260.24940.72110.72110.7325
370546686.6954440.1146987.89760.180.75690.75690.7396
371562.9692.744439.65821003.11760.20610.8230.8230.7458
372572.5698.3564439.31221017.16930.21950.79750.79750.7513


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPEsMAPESq.EMSERMSEScaledEMASE
3610.09020.13320.13320.14288445.9508002.75912.7591
3620.12880.09220.11270.11973860.08346153.017178.44121.86522.3122
3630.15390.03560.0870.0919533.44174279.825365.42040.69341.7726
3640.1718-0.11910.0950.0974587.9034356.844766.0064-2.03351.8378
3650.1854-0.18580.11320.111610277.3225540.940274.4375-3.04352.0789
3660.1962-0.03790.10060.0992575.1024713.300568.6535-0.721.8524
3670.2049-0.03320.0910.0897457.20854105.287364.0725-0.64191.6795
3680.2122-0.13470.09650.09436384.10364390.139466.2581-2.39881.7694
3690.2184-0.17330.1050.101510088.38145023.277470.8751-3.01541.9079
3700.2238-0.25770.12030.114219795.18936500.468680.6255-4.22392.1395
3710.2286-0.23070.13030.122616859.46067442.195186.2682-3.89822.2994
3720.2329-0.21980.13780.128915839.82828141.997990.233-3.77842.4226