R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03)
Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(97.3,101,113.2,101,105.7,113.9,86.4,96.5,103.3,114.9,105.8,94.2,98.4,99.4,108.8,112.6,104.4,112.2,81.1,97.1,112.6,113.8,107.8,103.2,103.3,101.2,107.7,110.4,101.9,115.9,89.9,88.6,117.2,123.9,100,103.6,94.1,98.7,119.5,112.7,104.4,124.7,89.1,97,121.6,118.8,114,111.5,97.2,102.5,113.4,109.8,104.9,126.1,80,96.8,117.2,112.3,117.3,111.1,102.2,104.3,122.9,107.6,121.3,131.5,89,104.4,128.9,135.9,133.3,121.3,120.5,120.4,137.9,126.1,133.2,146.6,103.4,117.2)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '0.0'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ma1     sma1
      -1.0000  -0.6107
s.e.   0.1696   0.2351

sigma^2 estimated as 0.002572:  log likelihood = 80.63,  aic = -155.26
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.793917 4.790555 4.750450 4.714053 4.636672 4.665307 4.800859 4.730744
 [9] 4.744884 4.868836 4.494641 4.632449

$se
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.05162173 0.05162173 0.05162173 0.05162173 0.05163652 0.05163652
 [7] 0.05163652 0.05163652 0.05163652 0.05163652 0.05163652 0.05163652

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.692739 4.689376 4.649272 4.612874 4.535465 4.564099 4.699652 4.629536
 [9] 4.643676 4.767629 4.393433 4.531241
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.895096 4.891733 4.851629 4.815232 4.737880 4.766514 4.902067 4.831951
 [9] 4.846091 4.970044 4.595848 4.733657
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  97.30000 101.00000 113.20000 101.00000 105.70000 113.90000  86.40000
 [8]  96.50000 103.30000 114.90000 105.80000  94.20000  98.40000  99.40000
[15] 108.80000 112.60000 104.40000 112.20000  81.10000  97.10000 112.60000
[22] 113.80000 107.80000 103.20000 103.30000 101.20000 107.70000 110.40000
[29] 101.90000 115.90000  89.90000  88.60000 117.20000 123.90000 100.00000
[36] 103.60000  94.10000  98.70000 119.50000 112.70000 104.40000 124.70000
[43]  89.10000  97.00000 121.60000 118.80000 114.00000 111.50000  97.20000
[50] 102.50000 113.40000 109.80000 104.90000 126.10000  80.00000  96.80000
[57] 117.20000 112.30000 117.30000 111.10000 102.20000 104.30000 122.90000
[64] 107.60000 121.30000 131.50000  89.00000 104.40000 120.77356 120.36814
[71] 115.63634 111.50318 103.20035 106.19817 121.61488 113.37987 114.99444
[78] 130.16933  89.53598 102.76543
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.05432359 0.05432359 0.05432359 0.05432359 0.05433996 0.05433996
 [7] 0.05433996 0.05433996 0.05433996 0.05433996 0.05433996 0.05433996
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1z72j1197024774.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2g6lq1197024774.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable')
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3xqi81197024774.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4zyf31197024774.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1z72j1197024774.ps tmp/1z72j1197024774.png")
> system("convert tmp/2g6lq1197024774.ps tmp/2g6lq1197024774.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.008   0.379   1.196