R version 2.6.1 (2007-11-26)
Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(93.5,94.7,112.9,99.2,105.6,113,83.1,81.1,96.9,104.3,97.7,102.6,89.9,96,112.7,107.1,106.2,121,101.2,83.2,105.1,113.3,99.1,100.3,93.5,98.8,106.2,98.3,102.1,117.1,101.5,80.5,105.9,109.5,97.2,114.5,93.5,100.9,121.1,116.5,109.3,118.1,108.3,105.4,116.2,111.2,105.8,122.7,99.5,107.9,124.6,115,110.3,132.7,99.7,96.5,118.7,112.9,130.5,137.9,115,116.8,140.9,120.7,134.2,147.3,112.4,107.1,128.4,137.7,135,151,137.4,132.4,161.3,139.8,146,154.6,142.1,120.5)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '0.0'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ma1     sma1
      -0.7307  -0.8046
s.e.   0.1129   0.5453

sigma^2 estimated as 0.003679:  log likelihood = 70.02,  aic = -134.04
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.863603 4.873263 4.841933 4.929364 4.770821 4.821330 4.977487 4.885075
 [9] 4.903252 5.019763 4.803236 4.717769

$se
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.06201001 0.06421841 0.06635336 0.06842171 0.07023467 0.07216010
 [7] 0.07403547 0.07586450 0.07765045 0.07939625 0.08110447 0.08277745

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.742064 4.747395 4.711880 4.795257 4.633161 4.679896 4.832378 4.736381
 [9] 4.751058 4.864147 4.644271 4.555525
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 4.985143 4.999131 4.971985 5.063470 4.908481 4.962764 5.122597 5.033770
 [9] 5.055447 5.175380 4.962200 4.880013
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  93.5000  94.7000 112.9000  99.2000 105.6000 113.0000  83.1000  81.1000
 [9]  96.9000 104.3000  97.7000 102.6000  89.9000  96.0000 112.7000 107.1000
[17] 106.2000 121.0000 101.2000  83.2000 105.1000 113.3000  99.1000 100.3000
[25]  93.5000  98.8000 106.2000  98.3000 102.1000 117.1000 101.5000  80.5000
[33] 105.9000 109.5000  97.2000 114.5000  93.5000 100.9000 121.1000 116.5000
[41] 109.3000 118.1000 108.3000 105.4000 116.2000 111.2000 105.8000 122.7000
[49]  99.5000 107.9000 124.6000 115.0000 110.3000 132.7000  99.7000  96.5000
[57] 118.7000 112.9000 130.5000 137.9000 115.0000 116.8000 140.9000 120.7000
[65] 134.2000 147.3000 112.4000 107.1000 129.4899 130.7469 126.7140 138.2915
[73] 118.0161 124.1301 145.1093 132.3004 134.7273 151.3754 121.9042 111.9183
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 69 
End = 80 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.06593577 0.06843498 0.07086136 0.07322177 0.07529860 0.07751237
 [7] 0.07967663 0.08179508 0.08387099 0.08590725 0.08790645 0.08987089
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/15c4d1197028536.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2fzdb1197028536.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable')
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/33uct1197028537.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/47gzt1197028537.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/15c4d1197028536.ps tmp/15c4d1197028536.png")
> system("convert tmp/2fzdb1197028536.ps tmp/2fzdb1197028536.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.757   0.540   1.841