R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03) Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(0.9383,0.9217,0.9095,0.892,0.8742,0.8532,0.8607,0.9005,0.9111,0.9059,0.8883,0.8924,0.8833,0.87,0.8758,0.8858,0.917,0.9554,0.9922,0.9778,0.9808,0.9811,1.0014,1.0183,1.0622,1.0773,1.0807,1.0848,1.1582,1.1663,1.1372,1.1139,1.1222,1.1692,1.1702,1.2286,1.2613,1.2646,1.2262,1.1985,1.2007,1.2138,1.2266,1.2176,1.2218,1.249,1.2991,1.3408,1.3119,1.3014,1.3201,1.2938,1.2694,1.2165,1.2037,1.2292,1.2256,1.2015,1.1786,1.1856,1.2103,1.1938,1.202,1.2271,1.277,1.265,1.2684,1.2811,1.2727,1.2611,1.2881,1.3213,1.2999,1.3074,1.3242,1.3516,1.3511,1.3419,1.3716,1.3622,1.3896) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '2' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] 0.3890649 -0.3825056 0.06411822 -0.9030671 -0.3068938 -0.3179229 [2,] 0.3487670 -0.3633259 0.00000000 -0.8802622 -0.2866149 -0.3044511 [3,] 0.3304170 -0.3014309 0.00000000 -0.8994917 0.0000000 -0.1542301 [4,] 0.3631052 -0.2870496 0.00000000 -0.8971663 0.0000000 0.0000000 [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.9242443 [2,] -1.0765134 [3,] -1.0207027 [4,] -1.0169812 [5,] NA [6,] NA [7,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.01844 0.00617 0.66926 0 0.06308 0.05678 0.00973 [2,] 0.00974 0.00553 NA 0 0.06908 0.06695 0.01298 [3,] 0.01538 0.01757 NA 0 NA 0.33478 0.00001 [4,] 0.00614 0.02285 NA 0 NA NA 0.00000 [5,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.3891 -0.3825 0.0641 -0.9031 -0.3069 -0.3179 -0.9242 s.e. 0.1614 0.1356 0.1495 0.1171 0.1626 0.1642 0.3481 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0004505: log likelihood = 144.03, aic = -272.05 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.3891 -0.3825 0.0641 -0.9031 -0.3069 -0.3179 -0.9242 s.e. 0.1614 0.1356 0.1495 0.1171 0.1626 0.1642 0.3481 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0004505: log likelihood = 144.03, aic = -272.05 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.3488 -0.3633 0 -0.8803 -0.2866 -0.3045 -1.0765 s.e. 0.1314 0.1271 0 0.0991 0.1554 0.1637 0.4229 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0003939: log likelihood = 144.01, aic = -274.02 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.3304 -0.3014 0 -0.8995 0 -0.1542 -1.0207 s.e. 0.1332 0.1241 0 0.0956 0 0.1589 0.2103 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0004968: log likelihood = 142.48, aic = -272.95 [[3]][[5]] NULL [[3]][[6]] NULL [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] -272.0530 -274.0190 -272.9542 -274.0470 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1n4981197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 81 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.0002829081 -0.0002295123 -0.0002987599 -0.0002967299 -0.0002751003 [6] -0.0002527155 -0.0002087396 -0.0001507843 -0.0001345364 -0.0001343753 [11] -0.0005159623 -0.0003738615 -0.0014102500 0.0032523686 0.0081526398 [16] 0.0068637126 0.0183155124 0.0173725256 -0.0040416728 -0.0500987336 [21] 0.0016700038 -0.0168753394 0.0146724841 -0.0090243471 0.0300664155 [26] -0.0066575649 -0.0107901496 -0.0079637304 0.0300796802 -0.0390823736 [31] -0.0402556201 -0.0222474857 -0.0103344430 0.0228876155 -0.0234104605 [36] 0.0412408152 -0.0153161873 -0.0027591550 -0.0414193439 -0.0171582284 [41] -0.0300910904 0.0080396946 -0.0007219566 -0.0150532835 0.0025285263 [46] 0.0045131781 0.0378221546 -0.0071412301 -0.0340672756 0.0066197258 [51] 0.0129448647 -0.0312089581 -0.0233970177 -0.0475632320 -0.0086056833 [56] 0.0181026086 -0.0174534191 -0.0164784881 -0.0173517985 -0.0055599371 [61] 0.0227263592 -0.0127043276 0.0240157048 0.0311549656 0.0246517465 [66] -0.0067933526 0.0146409257 0.0037266908 -0.0141529499 -0.0105482332 [71] 0.0284803044 -0.0068636984 -0.0326146420 0.0274648898 0.0057554345 [76] 0.0218110219 -0.0314310945 0.0037968050 0.0178547084 -0.0233257332 [81] 0.0311064908 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/20rqi1197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3usc91197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/41n4t1197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/59d7g1197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/65bvu1197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7wrns1197032685.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable') > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8za4d1197032685.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/9wqpo1197032685.tab") > > system("convert tmp/1n4981197032685.ps tmp/1n4981197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/20rqi1197032685.ps tmp/20rqi1197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/3usc91197032685.ps tmp/3usc91197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/41n4t1197032685.ps tmp/41n4t1197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/59d7g1197032685.ps tmp/59d7g1197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/65bvu1197032685.ps tmp/65bvu1197032685.png") > system("convert tmp/7wrns1197032685.ps tmp/7wrns1197032685.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 8.434 1.337 9.149