R version 2.6.1 (2007-11-26)
Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(95.4,101.2,101.5,101.9,101.7,100.1,97.4,96.5,99.2,102.2,105.3,111.1,114.9,124.5,142.2,159.7,165.2,198.6,207.8,219.6,239.6,235.3,218.5,213.8,205.5,198.4,198.5,190.2,180.7,193.6,192.8,195.5,197.2,196.9,178.9,172.4,156.4,143.7,153.6,168.8,185.8,199.9,205.4,197.5,199.6,200.5,193.7,179.6,169.1,169.8,195.5,194.8,204.5,203.8,204.8,204.9,240.0,248.3,258.4,254.9)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '1'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '1'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1.0'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
         ar1      ma1    sar1
      0.6820  -0.1752  0.2955
s.e.  0.1618   0.2102  0.1395

sigma^2 estimated as 73.53:  log likelihood = -168.44,  aic = 344.88
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 168.5842 160.5429 160.5430 163.0391 166.7014 169.9395 170.9316 168.1658
 [9] 168.4918 168.5570 166.4108 162.1514

$se
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  8.575194 15.507996 22.200319 28.522455 34.430971 39.932594 45.056524
 [8] 49.839918 54.320775 58.534685 62.513552 66.285312

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 151.77681 130.14727 117.03035 107.13507  99.21668  91.67159  82.62084
 [8]  70.47953  62.02312  53.82899  43.88428  32.23215
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 185.3916 190.9386 204.0556 218.9431 234.1861 248.2074 259.2424 265.8520
 [9] 274.9606 283.2850 288.9374 292.0706
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  95.4000 101.2000 101.5000 101.9000 101.7000 100.1000  97.4000  96.5000
 [9]  99.2000 102.2000 105.3000 111.1000 114.9000 124.5000 142.2000 159.7000
[17] 165.2000 198.6000 207.8000 219.6000 239.6000 235.3000 218.5000 213.8000
[25] 205.5000 198.4000 198.5000 190.2000 180.7000 193.6000 192.8000 195.5000
[33] 197.2000 196.9000 178.9000 172.4000 156.4000 143.7000 153.6000 168.8000
[41] 185.8000 199.9000 205.4000 197.5000 199.6000 200.5000 193.7000 179.6000
[49] 168.5842 160.5429 160.5430 163.0391 166.7014 169.9395 170.9316 168.1658
[57] 168.4918 168.5570 166.4108 162.1514
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.05086594 0.09659718 0.13828272 0.17494244 0.20654281 0.23498127
 [7] 0.26359384 0.29637374 0.32239409 0.34726944 0.37565792 0.40878666
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1hu751197044244.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2fj801197044244.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable')
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3sant1197044245.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4to301197044245.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1hu751197044244.ps tmp/1hu751197044244.png")
> system("convert tmp/2fj801197044244.ps tmp/2fj801197044244.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.668   0.519   1.758