R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03) Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(153.4,159.5,157.4,169.1,172.6,161.7,159.2,157.4,153.9,144.8,142.2,140.1,143.4,153.3,166.9,170.6,182.8,170.3,156.6,155.2,154.7,151.6,152.1,153.2,149.5,149.7,144.3,140,137.8,132.2,128.9,123.1,120.4,122.8,126,124.5,120.6,114.7,111.7,109.1,108,107.7,99.9,103.7,103.4,103.4,104.7,105.8,105.3,103,103.8,103.4,105.8,101.4,97,94.3,96.6,97.1,95.7,96.9,97.4,95.3,93.6,91.5,93.1,91.7,94.3,93.9,90.9,88.3,91.3,91.7,92.4,92,95.6,95.8,96.4,99,107,109.7,116.2,115.9,113.8,112.6,113.7,115.9,110.3,111.3,113.4,108.2,104.8,106,110.9,115,118.4,121.4,128.8,131.7,141.7,142.9,139.4,134.7,125,113.6,111.5,108.5,112.3,116.6,115.5,120.1,132.9,128.1,129.3,132.5,131,124.9,120.8,122,122.1,127.4,135.2,137.3,135,136,138.4,134.7,138.4,133.9,133.6,141.2,151.8,155.4,156.6,161.6,160.7,156,159.5,168.7,169.9,169.9,185.9) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '0.0' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.04201726 0.03675877 0.1306273 0.2563864 -0.5835886 0.007913287 0.7042590 [2,] 0.04215630 0.03745579 0.1306088 0.2561161 -0.5719947 0.000000000 0.6900842 [3,] 0.00000000 0.04946583 0.1293158 0.2953813 -0.5735728 0.000000000 0.6928292 [4,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.1354685 0.2815059 -0.5379613 0.000000000 0.6676590 [5,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.1268258 0.2948710 0.0000000 0.000000000 0.1272383 [6,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.0990553 0.3159354 0.0000000 0.000000000 0.0000000 [7,] 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.3313719 0.0000000 0.000000000 0.0000000 [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.89854 0.77852 0.15509 0.42269 0.14511 0.94778 0.06977 [2,] 0.89812 0.77345 0.15560 0.42280 0.12047 NA 0.03752 [3,] NA 0.59037 0.16072 0.00122 0.11390 NA 0.03339 [4,] NA NA 0.13905 0.00083 0.15426 NA 0.05120 [5,] NA NA 0.16342 0.00036 NA NA 0.20036 [6,] NA NA 0.26387 0.00006 NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA 0.00006 NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.0420 0.0368 0.1306 0.2564 -0.5836 0.0079 0.7043 s.e. 0.3289 0.1304 0.0914 0.3188 0.3982 0.1206 0.3852 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001139: log likelihood = 275.47, aic = -534.94 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.0420 0.0368 0.1306 0.2564 -0.5836 0.0079 0.7043 s.e. 0.3289 0.1304 0.0914 0.3188 0.3982 0.1206 0.3852 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001139: log likelihood = 275.47, aic = -534.94 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.0422 0.0375 0.1306 0.2561 -0.572 0 0.6901 s.e. 0.3286 0.1299 0.0915 0.3185 0.366 0 0.3285 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001139: log likelihood = 275.47, aic = -536.94 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0.0495 0.1293 0.2954 -0.5736 0 0.6928 s.e. 0 0.0917 0.0917 0.0894 0.3605 0 0.3223 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001139: log likelihood = 275.46, aic = -538.92 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0.1355 0.2815 -0.5380 0 0.6677 s.e. 0 0 0.0910 0.0824 0.3755 0 0.3394 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001141: log likelihood = 275.31, aic = -540.63 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0.1268 0.2949 0 0 0.1272 s.e. 0 0 0.0905 0.0806 0 0 0.0989 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001149: log likelihood = 274.99, aic = -541.99 [[3]][[7]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0.0991 0.3159 0 0 0 s.e. 0 0 0.0883 0.0766 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 0.001165: log likelihood = 274.16, aic = -542.31 $aic [1] -534.9401 -536.9357 -538.9196 -540.6270 -541.9888 -542.3138 -543.0664 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 6: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1qrwv1197044326.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) Error in 1:k : result would be too long a vector Calls: arimaSelectplot In addition: Warning message: In min(which(is.na(coeff[, 1]))) : no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf Execution halted