R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03)
Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(112.1,104.2,102.4,100.3,102.6,101.5,103.4,99.4,97.9,98,90.2,87.1,91.8,94.8,91.8,89.3,91.7,86.2,82.8,82.3,79.8,79.4,85.3,87.5,88.3,88.6,94.9,94.7,92.6,91.8,96.4,96.4,107.1,111.9,107.8,109.2,115.3,119.2,107.8,106.8,104.2,94.8,97.5,98.3,100.6,94.9,93.6,98,104.3,103.9,105.3,102.6,103.3,107.9,107.8,109.8,110.6,110.8,119.3,128.1,127.6,137.9,151.4,143.6,143.4,141.9,135.2,133.1,129.6,134.1,136.8,143.5,162.5,163.1,157.2,158.8,155.4,148.5,154.2,153.3,149.4,147.9,156,163,159.1,159.5,157.3,156.4,156.6,162.4,166.8,162.6,168.1)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '1'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1     ma1
      -0.4886  0.7592
s.e.   0.1764  0.1234

sigma^2 estimated as 23.92:  log likelihood = -240.61,  aic = 487.23
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 82 
End = 93 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 149.8710 149.6409 149.7533 149.6984 149.7252 149.7121 149.7185 149.7154
 [9] 149.7169 149.7161 149.7165 149.7163

$se
Time Series:
Start = 82 
End = 93 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  4.891291  7.909040  9.672606 11.321884 12.689266 13.954216 15.099543
 [8] 16.170354 17.171567 18.118908 19.018481 19.877683

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 82 
End = 93 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 140.2840 134.1391 130.7950 127.5075 124.8542 122.3618 120.1234 118.0215
 [9] 116.0606 114.2031 112.4403 110.7561
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 82 
End = 93 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 159.4579 165.1426 168.7116 171.8893 174.5962 177.0624 179.3136 181.4093
 [9] 183.3732 185.2292 186.9927 188.6766
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 112.1000 104.2000 102.4000 100.3000 102.6000 101.5000 103.4000  99.4000
 [9]  97.9000  98.0000  90.2000  87.1000  91.8000  94.8000  91.8000  89.3000
[17]  91.7000  86.2000  82.8000  82.3000  79.8000  79.4000  85.3000  87.5000
[25]  88.3000  88.6000  94.9000  94.7000  92.6000  91.8000  96.4000  96.4000
[33] 107.1000 111.9000 107.8000 109.2000 115.3000 119.2000 107.8000 106.8000
[41] 104.2000  94.8000  97.5000  98.3000 100.6000  94.9000  93.6000  98.0000
[49] 104.3000 103.9000 105.3000 102.6000 103.3000 107.9000 107.8000 109.8000
[57] 110.6000 110.8000 119.3000 128.1000 127.6000 137.9000 151.4000 143.6000
[65] 143.4000 141.9000 135.2000 133.1000 129.6000 134.1000 136.8000 143.5000
[73] 162.5000 163.1000 157.2000 158.8000 155.4000 148.5000 154.2000 153.3000
[81] 149.4000 149.8710 149.6409 149.7533 149.6984 149.7252 149.7121 149.7185
[89] 149.7154 149.7169 149.7161 149.7165 149.7163
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 82 
End = 93 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.03263668 0.05285348 0.06459027 0.07563131 0.08475037 0.09320701
 [7] 0.10085289 0.10800731 0.11469359 0.12102173 0.12702995 0.13276897
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/167g41197390968.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2ffnt1197390968.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable')
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3m6iu1197390968.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4ctom1197390968.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/167g41197390968.ps tmp/167g41197390968.png")
> system("convert tmp/2ffnt1197390968.ps tmp/2ffnt1197390968.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.853   0.316   1.003