R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03)
Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(108.1,105.4,114.6,106.9,115.9,109.8,101.8,114.2,110.8,108.4,127.5,128.6,116.6,127.4,105.0,108.3,125.0,111.6,106.5,130.3,115.0,116.1,134.0,126.5,125.8,136.4,114.9,110.9,125.5,116.8,116.8,125.5,104.2,115.1,132.8,123.3,124.8,122.0,117.4,117.9,137.4,114.6,124.7,129.6,109.4,120.9,134.9,136.3,133.2,127.2,122.7,120.5,137.8,119.1,124.3,134.4,121.1,121.0,127.0,133.4)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '1'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '0'
> par2 = '2.0'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
         ar1      ma1     sar1    sar2    sma1
      0.9983  -0.8218  -0.1737  0.5207  0.9998
s.e.  0.0030   0.1039   0.2742  0.2750  0.5429

sigma^2 estimated as 2425368:  log likelihood = -429.39,  aic = 870.78
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 16399.13 15829.98 14993.99 15451.62 18997.00 14689.44 16463.64 17627.88
 [9] 14336.79 15993.62 18227.27 18604.93

$se
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 1617.429 1642.403 1666.922 1691.005 1714.671 1737.937 1760.820 1783.334
 [9] 1805.494 1827.312 1848.801 1869.973

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 13228.97 12610.87 11726.83 12137.25 15636.25 11283.08 13012.44 14132.55
 [9] 10798.02 12412.09 14603.62 14939.78
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 19569.29 19049.09 18261.16 18765.99 22357.76 18095.79 19914.85 21123.21
 [9] 17875.56 19575.16 21850.92 22270.08
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 108.1000 105.4000 114.6000 106.9000 115.9000 109.8000 101.8000 114.2000
 [9] 110.8000 108.4000 127.5000 128.6000 116.6000 127.4000 105.0000 108.3000
[17] 125.0000 111.6000 106.5000 130.3000 115.0000 116.1000 134.0000 126.5000
[25] 125.8000 136.4000 114.9000 110.9000 125.5000 116.8000 116.8000 125.5000
[33] 104.2000 115.1000 132.8000 123.3000 124.8000 122.0000 117.4000 117.9000
[41] 137.4000 114.6000 124.7000 129.6000 109.4000 120.9000 134.9000 136.3000
[49] 128.0591 125.8172 122.4500 124.3045 137.8296 121.2000 128.3107 132.7700
[57] 119.7363 126.4659 135.0084 136.3999
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 49 
End = 60 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.04713702 0.04947731 0.05284914 0.05206300 0.04329322 0.05607455
 [7] 0.05093365 0.04829684 0.05949794 0.05424283 0.04841785 0.04799712
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1oxzm1198164438.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2s9oi1198164439.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable')
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3emep1198164439.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4pehu1198164439.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1oxzm1198164438.ps tmp/1oxzm1198164438.png")
> system("convert tmp/2s9oi1198164439.ps tmp/2s9oi1198164439.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.668   0.365   1.844