R version 2.6.0 (2007-10-03) Copyright (C) 2007 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY. You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions. Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details. Natural language support but running in an English locale R is a collaborative project with many contributors. Type 'contributors()' for more information and 'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications. Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or 'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help. Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(93.5,94.7,112.9,99.2,105.6,113.0,83.1,81.1,96.9,104.3,97.7,102.6,89.9,96.0,112.7,107.1,106.2,121.0,101.2,83.2,105.1,113.3,99.1,100.3,93.5,98.8,106.2,98.3,102.1,117.1,101.5,80.5,105.9,109.5,97.2,114.5,93.5,100.9,121.1,116.5,109.3,118.1,108.3,105.4,116.2,111.2,105.8,122.7,99.5,107.9,124.6,115.0,110.3,132.7,99.7,96.5,118.7,112.9,130.5,137.9,115.0,116.8,140.9,120.7,134.2,147.3,112.4,107.1,128.4,137.7,135.0,151.0,137.4,132.4,161.3,139.8,146.0,154.6,142.1,120.5) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1.3' > par1 = 'TRUE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.2901461 -0.2769471 -0.0486835 -0.3513745 0.3138050 -0.2319649 [2,] -0.2039068 -0.2248029 0.0000000 -0.4352627 0.3101885 -0.2313119 [3,] 0.0000000 -0.1222287 0.0000000 -0.6043190 0.3153978 -0.2252389 [4,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 -0.6564359 0.3067859 -0.2084512 [5,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 -1.4476259 0.3543860 0.0000000 [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.9999379 [2,] -1.0002932 [3,] -1.0000344 [4,] -0.9997384 [5,] -1.0001600 [6,] NA [7,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.56832 0.38328 0.84437 0.48387 0.04327 0.18871 0.01010 [2,] 0.41249 0.19985 NA 0.08291 0.04432 0.19076 0.01004 [3,] NA 0.39693 NA 0.00000 0.03891 0.20899 0.01167 [4,] NA NA NA 0.00000 0.04170 0.24081 0.01472 [5,] NA NA NA 0.00000 0.02409 NA 0.00068 [6,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2901 -0.2769 -0.0487 -0.3514 0.3138 -0.2320 -0.9999 s.e. 0.5062 0.3157 0.2471 0.4993 0.1525 0.1748 0.3785 sigma^2 estimated as 1034: log likelihood = -338.92, aic = 693.84 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2901 -0.2769 -0.0487 -0.3514 0.3138 -0.2320 -0.9999 s.e. 0.5062 0.3157 0.2471 0.4993 0.1525 0.1748 0.3785 sigma^2 estimated as 1034: log likelihood = -338.92, aic = 693.84 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2039 -0.2248 0 -0.4353 0.3102 -0.2313 -1.0003 s.e. 0.2474 0.1738 0 0.2476 0.1516 0.1752 0.3784 sigma^2 estimated as 1034: log likelihood = -338.94, aic = 691.87 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 -0.1222 0 -0.6043 0.3154 -0.2252 -1.0000 s.e. 0 0.1435 0 0.1159 0.1500 0.1777 0.3867 sigma^2 estimated as 1048: log likelihood = -339.26, aic = 690.51 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0 0 0 -0.6564 0.3068 -0.2085 -0.9997 s.e. 0 0 0 0.0999 0.1481 0.1763 0.4004 sigma^2 estimated as 1064: log likelihood = -339.6, aic = 689.2 [[3]][[6]] NULL [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] 693.8369 691.8719 690.5139 689.1997 688.4217 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1j4wh1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 80 Frequency = 1 [1] 0.21061742 0.09891462 0.14523567 0.04461944 0.06576731 [6] 0.09090165 -0.06524975 -0.06622343 0.01582873 0.05073391 [11] 0.01337665 -0.17814013 -1.45500671 16.04373038 2.66831730 [16] 33.61736980 -7.89276499 25.92479248 54.00375749 -27.42728485 [21] 7.03683531 8.64879812 -25.73467239 -31.73484941 -1.84302897 [26] 0.58893815 -40.04428958 -27.02527854 -5.58552897 4.28925832 [31] 30.31698811 -7.54775684 15.16155345 -8.61550243 -5.09313799 [36] 60.68283146 -20.01747702 3.28405996 44.88379572 52.82741662 [41] -20.29825865 -28.52425656 28.58319006 66.71861000 -2.06147831 [46] -46.03269320 -9.30909803 11.90863625 -22.58663028 -0.71691659 [51] -11.06810673 -19.95928351 -22.48595122 49.66325947 -47.30901378 [56] -22.91036090 25.74917382 -13.10182382 110.85528158 58.50339734 [61] 2.37993742 -17.93009236 37.71506285 -30.19966912 48.98770929 [66] 13.55442590 -29.97504069 -6.33882519 -2.84482318 42.62087063 [71] -5.45985283 44.37151721 42.63693020 -12.91552686 47.85312031 [76] -14.28360698 -13.85327509 -19.53432216 48.06129159 -40.07779948 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/26l9b1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/31h2i1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4k30o1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5gtao1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/6vtxx1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7tcya1196432594.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > load(file='/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable') > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8e5jf1196432594.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/9purs1196432594.tab") > > system("convert tmp/1j4wh1196432594.ps tmp/1j4wh1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/26l9b1196432594.ps tmp/26l9b1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/31h2i1196432594.ps tmp/31h2i1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/4k30o1196432594.ps tmp/4k30o1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/5gtao1196432594.ps tmp/5gtao1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/6vtxx1196432594.ps tmp/6vtxx1196432594.png") > system("convert tmp/7tcya1196432594.ps tmp/7tcya1196432594.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 15.336 2.592 16.368