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Blog paper

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:42:46 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:48:30 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
Feedback Forum:
2008-11-27 13:41:43 [a2386b643d711541400692649981f2dc] [reply
test

Post a new message
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
blog paper
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
14929387,5 0 14717825,3 0 15826281,2 0 16301309,6 0 15033016,9 0 16998460,6 0 14066462,7 0 13328937,3 0 17319718,2 0 17586426,8 0 15887037,4 0 17935679,1 0 15869489 0 15892510,9 0 17556558,1 0 16791643 0 15953688,5 0 18144913,6 0 14390881 0 13885708,7 0 17332571,5 0 17152595,8 0 16003877,1 0 16841467,1 0 14783398,1 0 14667847,5 0 17714362,2 0 16282088 1 15014866,2 1 17722582,4 1 13876509,4 1 15495489,6 1 17799521,1 1 17920079,1 1 17248022,4 1 18813782,4 0 16249688,3 0 17823358,5 0 20424438,3 0 17814218,7 0 19699959,6 0 19776328,1 0 15679833,1 0 17119266,5 0 20092613 0 20863688,3 0 20925203,1 0 21032593 0 20664684,3 0 19711511,4 0 22553293,4 0 19498332,9 0 20722827,8 0 21321275 0 17960847,7 0 17789654,9 0 20003708,5 0 21169851,7 0 20422839,4 0 19810562,3 0
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time6 seconds
R Server'Herman Ole Andreas Wold' @ 193.190.124.10:1001


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
x[t] = + 15509742.34 -1300033.25625y[t] -1355603.48333334M1[t] -1386129.82666667M2[t] + 772438.47M3[t] -538830.702083335M4[t] -685284.965416666M5[t] + 728747.55125M6[t] -2962865.23208333M7[t] -2727768.23541667M8[t] + 164239.201249999M9[t] + 499333.457916666M10[t] -435606.625416667M11[t] + 93807.6233333334t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)15509742.34490286.67004231.63400
y-1300033.25625369567.482782-3.51770.0009920.000496
M1-1355603.48333334596461.173308-2.27270.027760.01388
M2-1386129.82666667595570.013859-2.32740.0243990.0122
M3772438.47594762.5761721.29870.2005080.100254
M4-538830.702083335598619.894471-0.90010.3727440.186372
M5-685284.965416666597985.78544-1.1460.2577270.128863
M6728747.55125597435.679871.21980.2287610.11438
M7-2962865.23208333596969.809989-4.96321e-055e-06
M8-2727768.23541667596588.373133-4.57233.6e-051.8e-05
M9164239.201249999596291.5313320.27540.7842160.392108
M10499333.457916666596079.410970.83770.4065330.203266
M11-435606.625416667595952.102512-0.73090.4685210.234261
t93807.62333333347112.32952213.189400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.931218982255859
R-squared0.867168792913637
Adjusted R-squared0.829629538737056
F-TEST (value)23.1003202363735
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value6.66133814775094e-16
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation934939.995781152
Sum Squared Residuals40209188602718


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
114929387.514247946.48681441.019999986
214717825.314311227.76406597.540000002
315826281.216563603.68-737322.48
416301309.615346142.13125955167.46875
515033016.915293495.49125-260478.591249999
616998460.616801335.63125197124.968750001
714066462.713203530.47125862932.22875
813328937.313532435.09125-203497.791249998
917319718.216518250.15125801468.048749998
1017586426.816947152.03125639274.76875
1115887037.416106019.57125-218982.171249999
1217935679.116635433.821300245.28
131586948915373637.96495851.040000003
1415892510.915436919.24455591.66
1517556558.117689295.16-132737.059999998
161679164316471833.61125319809.388750001
1715953688.516419186.97125-465498.47125
1818144913.617927027.11125217886.488750001
191439088114329221.9512561659.0487500003
2013885708.714658126.57125-772417.87125
2117332571.517643941.63125-311370.131250000
2217152595.818072843.51125-920247.71125
2316003877.117231711.05125-1227833.95125
2416841467.117761125.3-919658.199999999
2514783398.116499329.44-1715931.34000000
2614667847.516562610.72-1894763.22
2717714362.218814986.64-1100624.44
281628208816297491.835-15403.8349999994
2915014866.216244845.195-1229978.995
3017722582.417752685.335-30102.9350000024
3113876509.414154880.175-278370.775000000
3215495489.614483784.7951011704.805
3317799521.117469599.855329921.245000002
3417920079.117898501.73521577.3650000011
3517248022.417057369.275190653.124999999
3618813782.418886816.78-73034.3800000027
3716249688.317625020.92-1375332.62000000
3817823358.517688302.2135056.299999999
3920424438.319940678.12483760.180000001
4017814218.718723216.57125-908997.87125
4119699959.618670569.931251029389.66875
4219776328.120178410.07125-402081.971249999
4315679833.116580604.91125-900771.81125
4417119266.516909509.53125209756.96875
452009261319895324.59125197288.408750000
4620863688.320324226.47125539461.828749999
4720925203.119483094.011251442109.08875
482103259320012508.261020084.74000000
4920664684.318750712.41913971.90000000
5019711511.418813993.68897517.719999999
5122553293.421066369.61486923.80000000
5219498332.919848908.05125-350575.151250001
5320722827.819796261.41125926566.38875
542132127521304101.5512517173.4487499993
5517960847.717706296.39125254551.30875
5617789654.918035201.01125-245546.111250002
5720003708.521021016.07125-1017307.57125
5821169851.721449917.95125-280066.251250001
5920422839.420608785.49125-185946.091250001
6019810562.321138199.74-1327637.44


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.07095882952543430.1419176590508690.929041170474566
180.02357563829237110.04715127658474220.976424361707629
190.02077456257196520.04154912514393030.979225437428035
200.00881734790529190.01763469581058380.991182652094708
210.010467805199690.020935610399380.98953219480031
220.01924594590003940.03849189180007880.98075405409996
230.01082310541337010.02164621082674020.98917689458663
240.03248148944348210.06496297888696430.967518510556518
250.04788583012029230.09577166024058460.952114169879708
260.06496815839894010.1299363167978800.93503184160106
270.07215561664535760.1443112332907150.927844383354642
280.04484960167479050.0896992033495810.95515039832521
290.06182074974454620.1236414994890920.938179250255454
300.03935842768623050.0787168553724610.96064157231377
310.02226103678055440.04452207356110890.977738963219446
320.06776615846508040.1355323169301610.93223384153492
330.04755095803645860.09510191607291710.952449041963541
340.0281676108727420.0563352217454840.971832389127258
350.02145517622816330.04291035245632660.978544823771837
360.01588338163955350.03176676327910710.984116618360447
370.1148255838967990.2296511677935980.885174416103201
380.1869862491711740.3739724983423470.813013750828826
390.3361190604868110.6722381209736220.663880939513189
400.3008664486122110.6017328972244220.699133551387789
410.3522383846494770.7044767692989540.647761615350523
420.3117892084372030.6235784168744070.688210791562797
430.673384859837450.6532302803251010.326615140162550


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level90.333333333333333NOK
10% type I error level150.555555555555556NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/101nw1228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/1029sk1228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/48i131228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/5fu6c1228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/6jy911228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/72ybr1228156954.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/8np001228156954.ps (open in new window)


http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/9ttyi1228156954.png (open in new window)
http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t1228157310sov8hi0ipyysgeo/9ttyi1228156954.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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