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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(492865,480961,461935,456608,441977,439148,488180,520564,501492,485025,464196,460170,467037,460070,447988,442867,436087,431328,484015,509673,512927,502831,470984,471067,476049,474605,470439,461251,454724,455626,516847,525192,522975,518585,509239,512238,519164,517009,509933,509127,500857,506971,569323,579714,577992,565464,547344,554788,562325,560854,555332,543599,536662,542722,593530,610763,612613,611324,594167,595454,590865,589379,584428,573100,567456,569028,620735,628884,628232,612117,595404,597141,593408,590072,579799,574205,572775,572942,619567,625809,619916,587625,565742,557274,560576,548854,531673,525919,511038,498662,555362,564591,541657,527070,509846,514258,516922,507561,492622,490243,469357,477580,528379,533590) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '2' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.2196132 -0.1883856 -0.07186047 -0.8080090 0.05092785 -0.1813869 [2,] -0.2250036 -0.1944312 -0.06774034 -0.8050731 0.00000000 -0.2077776 [3,] -0.1956174 -0.1647113 0.00000000 -0.8270388 0.00000000 -0.2085626 [4,] -0.1979662 -0.1411007 0.00000000 -0.8369590 0.00000000 0.0000000 [5,] -0.1509733 0.0000000 0.00000000 -1.1554805 0.00000000 0.0000000 [6,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 -1.1228356 0.00000000 0.0000000 [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] -0.7046543 [2,] -0.6512746 [3,] -0.6509305 [4,] -0.7011464 [5,] -0.6985991 [6,] -0.6971366 [7,] NA [8,] NA [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.10776 0.16153 0.56485 0 0.86969 0.42234 0.05319 [2,] 0.08998 0.13509 0.58093 0 NA 0.18171 0.00006 [3,] 0.10352 0.16109 NA 0 NA 0.17980 0.00006 [4,] 0.09662 0.22130 NA 0 NA NA 0.00003 [5,] 0.17909 NA NA 0 NA NA 0.00007 [6,] NA NA NA 0 NA NA 0.00017 [7,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2196 -0.1884 -0.0719 -0.8080 0.0509 -0.1814 -0.7047 s.e. 0.1353 0.1335 0.1244 0.0883 0.3096 0.2251 0.3600 sigma^2 estimated as 45343493: log likelihood = -929.91, aic = 1875.83 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2196 -0.1884 -0.0719 -0.8080 0.0509 -0.1814 -0.7047 s.e. 0.1353 0.1335 0.1244 0.0883 0.3096 0.2251 0.3600 sigma^2 estimated as 45343493: log likelihood = -929.91, aic = 1875.83 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.2250 -0.1944 -0.0677 -0.8051 0 -0.2078 -0.6513 s.e. 0.1314 0.1290 0.1223 0.0865 0 0.1545 0.1558 sigma^2 estimated as 45652846: log likelihood = -929.93, aic = 1873.86 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1956 -0.1647 0 -0.8270 0 -0.2086 -0.6509 s.e. 0.1190 0.1166 0 0.0696 0 0.1544 0.1553 sigma^2 estimated as 45796674: log likelihood = -930.08, aic = 1872.16 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.198 -0.1411 0 -0.8370 0 0 -0.7011 s.e. 0.118 0.1146 0 0.0656 0 0 0.1598 sigma^2 estimated as 47467917: log likelihood = -930.92, aic = 1871.85 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.1510 0 0 -1.1555 0 0 -0.6986 s.e. 0.1116 0 0 0.0718 0 0 0.1678 sigma^2 estimated as 36184867: log likelihood = -931.53, aic = 1871.06 [[3]][[7]] NULL $aic [1] 1875.828 1873.855 1872.158 1871.847 1871.060 1870.844 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1gj751228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 104 Frequency = 1 [1] 148.60436 -122.20640 -164.45793 -153.67550 -144.77695 [6] -124.16697 -67.96505 -45.82865 -72.72051 -86.95238 [11] -294.70370 -223.69213 -758.83861 1799.32828 1054.27910 [16] -3339.24073 2043.41272 -4246.02663 -521.93703 -6996.76730 [21] 13339.65253 3057.83500 -11316.92436 -802.13835 -3398.90843 [26] 2558.58889 5370.86147 -7096.27061 -1389.39573 433.26892 [31] 4823.11677 -19715.99449 -160.53297 5886.64155 12404.02066 [36] 1723.97206 -3175.17518 -1819.15739 -1490.02686 519.14608 [41] -3741.05490 2334.79977 2292.29283 -12809.46043 -1711.83654 [46] -5095.11395 -1390.55677 4159.53474 -889.08303 -506.60785 [51] 351.96443 -8985.71488 -1697.26763 2627.68803 -7493.19074 [56] -2151.16067 3930.16687 7090.44668 361.82601 -3502.04886 [61] -12029.40001 -582.23551 2094.29495 -4624.23992 869.81313 [66] -1299.04193 -3919.04569 -8312.11773 1128.63682 -6229.56896 [71] 2190.19184 1274.62530 -4703.99978 406.19848 -1194.91893 [76] 3594.45309 6593.24698 -760.07266 -6492.38981 -6761.51669 [81] -2562.22107 -17060.42736 -1455.02817 -4595.94422 6218.91938 [86] -2570.88719 -4025.31368 5757.03203 -3195.81033 -8202.78001 [91] 8503.84218 3386.54569 -13011.91177 5828.02404 7552.46637 [96] 9616.90457 4803.01757 -548.79842 -1442.66560 6154.25567 [101] -8334.85142 10776.15347 755.27341 -3944.57926 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/27spc1228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3tq491228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4ug7v1228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5de621228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/61jeb1228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7whq91228843058.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8ql2g1228843058.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/9tnzt1228843058.tab") > > system("convert tmp/1gj751228843058.ps tmp/1gj751228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/27spc1228843058.ps tmp/27spc1228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/3tq491228843058.ps tmp/3tq491228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/4ug7v1228843058.ps tmp/4ug7v1228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/5de621228843058.ps tmp/5de621228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/61jeb1228843058.ps tmp/61jeb1228843058.png") > system("convert tmp/7whq91228843058.ps tmp/7whq91228843058.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 8.086 1.498 8.981