R version 2.8.0 (2008-10-20)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(97.3,101,113.2,101,105.7,113.9,86.4,96.5,103.3,114.9,105.8,94.2,98.4,99.4,108.8,112.6,104.4,112.2,81.1,97.1,112.6,113.8,107.8,103.2,103.3,101.2,107.7,110.4,101.9,115.9,89.9,88.6,117.2,123.9,100,103.6,94.1,98.7,119.5,112.7,104.4,124.7,89.1,97,121.6,118.8,114,111.5,97.2,102.5,113.4,109.8,104.9,126.1,80,96.8,117.2,112.3,117.3,111.1,102.2,104.3,122.9,107.6,121.3,131.5,89,104.4,128.9,135.9,133.3,121.3,120.5,120.4,137.9,126.1,133.2,146.6,103.4,117.2)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '0'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '0'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
         ar1     ar2     ar3
      0.2016  0.2563  0.3993
s.e.  0.1094  0.1083  0.1107

sigma^2 estimated as 36.98:  log likelihood = -219.9,  aic = 447.8
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 81 
End = 92 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 141.2005 147.4103 143.8841 131.2954 129.8238 129.0677 146.0282 133.6831
 [9] 140.2730 153.2150 109.5743 122.9644

$se
Time Series:
Start = 81 
End = 92 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 6.081034 6.203395 6.460801 7.168833 7.340575 7.566529 7.830243 7.973928
 [9] 8.123763 8.261798 8.363909 8.459519

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 81 
End = 92 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 129.28172 135.25165 131.22091 117.24447 115.43626 114.23726 130.68092
 [8] 118.05421 124.35039 137.02189  93.18103 106.38371
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 81 
End = 92 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 153.1194 159.5690 156.5472 145.3463 144.2113 143.8981 161.3755 149.3120
 [9] 156.1955 169.4081 125.9676 139.5450
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  97.3000 101.0000 113.2000 101.0000 105.7000 113.9000  86.4000  96.5000
 [9] 103.3000 114.9000 105.8000  94.2000  98.4000  99.4000 108.8000 112.6000
[17] 104.4000 112.2000  81.1000  97.1000 112.6000 113.8000 107.8000 103.2000
[25] 103.3000 101.2000 107.7000 110.4000 101.9000 115.9000  89.9000  88.6000
[33] 117.2000 123.9000 100.0000 103.6000  94.1000  98.7000 119.5000 112.7000
[41] 104.4000 124.7000  89.1000  97.0000 121.6000 118.8000 114.0000 111.5000
[49]  97.2000 102.5000 113.4000 109.8000 104.9000 126.1000  80.0000  96.8000
[57] 117.2000 112.3000 117.3000 111.1000 102.2000 104.3000 122.9000 107.6000
[65] 121.3000 131.5000  89.0000 104.4000 128.9000 135.9000 133.3000 121.3000
[73] 120.5000 120.4000 137.9000 126.1000 133.2000 146.6000 103.4000 117.2000
[81] 141.2005 147.4103 143.8841 131.2954 129.8238 129.0677 146.0282 133.6831
[89] 140.2730 153.2150 109.5743 122.9644
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 81 
End = 92 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.04306665 0.04208250 0.04490282 0.05460080 0.05654260 0.05862452
 [7] 0.05362144 0.05964798 0.05791396 0.05392290 0.07633095 0.06879650
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1vss31228927764.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2alay1228927764.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3ps371228927764.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4oaa41228927764.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1vss31228927764.ps tmp/1vss31228927764.png")
> system("convert tmp/2alay1228927764.ps tmp/2alay1228927764.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.660   0.335   0.775