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multiple regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:49:03 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/11/t1228992626egoj6vzguulq72d.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 11 Dec 2008 10:50:36 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/11/t1228992626egoj6vzguulq72d.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
Feedback Forum:
2008-11-27 13:41:43 [a2386b643d711541400692649981f2dc] [reply
test

Post a new message
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
2648,9 0 2669,6 0 3042,3 0 2604,2 0 2732,1 0 2621,7 0 2483,7 0 2479,3 0 2684,6 0 2834,7 0 2566,1 0 2251,2 0 2350 1 2299,8 1 2542,8 1 2530,2 1 2508,1 1 2616,8 1 2534,1 1 2181,8 1 2578,9 1 2841,9 1 2529,9 1 2103,2 1 2326,2 1 2452,6 1 2782,1 1 2727,3 1 2648,2 1 2760,7 1 2613 1 2225,4 1 2713,9 1 2923,3 1 2707 1 2473,9 1 2521 1 2531,8 1 3068,8 1 2826,9 1 2674,2 1 2966,6 1 2798,8 1 2629,6 1 3124,6 1 3115,7 1 3083 1 2863,9 1 2728,7 1 2789,4 1 3225,7 1 3148,2 1 2836,5 1 3153,5 1 2656,9 1 2834,7 1 3172,5 1 2998,8 1 3103,1 1 2735,6 1 2818,1 1 2874,4 1 3438,5 1 2949,1 1 3306,8 1 3530 1 3003,8 1 3206,4 1 3514,6 1 3522,6 1 3525,5 1 2996,2 1 3231,1 1 3030 1 3541,7 1 3113,2 1 3390,8 1 3424,2 1 3079,8 1 3123,4 1 3317,1 1 3579,9 1 3317,9 1 2668,1 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Uitvoer_D[t] = + 2201.40380952381 -321.558888888888Euro[t] + 226.961587301585M1[t] + 216.607936507936M2[t] + 630.64M3[t] + 367.943492063493M4[t] + 382.446984126984M5[t] + 508.264761904763M6[t] + 222.625396825397M7[t] + 138.971746031746M8[t] + 471.760952380952M9[t] + 559.564444444445M10[t] + 405.210793650794M11[t] + 13.7250793650794t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)2201.4038095238166.46623433.120600
Euro-321.55888888888856.01116-5.74100
M1226.96158730158576.4394852.96920.0040870.002043
M2216.60793650793676.3478182.83710.005950.002975
M3630.6476.2647868.269100
M4367.94349206349376.1904184.82938e-064e-06
M5382.44698412698476.1247385.0244e-062e-06
M6508.26476190476376.067776.681700
M7222.62539682539776.0195332.92850.0045930.002296
M8138.97174603174675.9800431.82910.0716510.035825
M9471.76095238095275.9493156.211500
M10559.56444444444575.9273597.369700
M11405.21079365079475.9141825.33771e-061e-06
t13.72507936507940.81665916.806400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.930155464214882
R-squared0.865189187608803
Adjusted R-squared0.84015289387901
F-TEST (value)34.5573988285339
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)70
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation142.014211249527
Sum Squared Residuals1411762.53377778


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
12648.92442.09047619048206.809523809518
22669.62445.46190476191224.138095238094
33042.32873.21904761904169.080952380956
42604.22624.24761904762-20.0476190476165
52732.12652.4761904761979.6238095238104
62621.72792.01904761905-170.319047619048
72483.72520.10476190476-36.4047619047618
82479.32450.1761904761929.1238095238083
92684.62796.69047619048-112.090476190476
102834.72898.21904761905-63.5190476190474
112566.12757.59047619047-191.490476190475
122251.22366.10476190476-114.904761904762
1323502285.2325396825464.7674603174614
142299.82288.6039682539711.1960317460319
152542.82716.36111111111-173.561111111111
162530.22467.3896825396862.8103174603168
172508.12495.6182539682512.4817460317458
182616.82635.16111111111-18.3611111111108
192534.12363.24682539683170.853174603174
202181.82293.31825396825-111.518253968254
212578.92639.83253968254-60.9325396825397
222841.92741.36111111111100.538888888889
232529.92600.73253968254-70.83253968254
242103.22209.24682539683-106.046825396825
252326.22449.93349206349-123.733492063491
262452.62453.30492063492-0.704920634920697
272782.12881.06206349206-98.962063492064
282727.32632.0906349206495.2093650793648
292648.22660.31920634921-12.1192063492067
302760.72799.86206349206-39.1620634920636
3126132527.9477777777885.052222222222
322225.42458.01920634921-232.619206349206
332713.92804.53349206349-90.633492063492
342923.32906.0620634920617.2379365079365
3527072765.43349206349-58.4334920634923
362473.92373.9477777777899.9522222222223
3725212614.63444444444-93.6344444444436
382531.82618.00587301587-86.2058730158727
393068.83045.7630158730223.0369841269838
402826.92796.7915873015930.1084126984123
412674.22825.02015873016-150.820158730159
422966.62964.563015873022.03698412698417
432798.82692.64873015873106.151269841270
442629.62622.720158730166.87984126984121
453124.62969.23444444444155.365555555555
463115.73070.7630158730244.9369841269839
4730832930.13444444444152.865555555555
482863.92538.64873015873325.25126984127
492728.72779.33539682540-50.6353968253962
502789.42782.706825396836.69317460317478
513225.73210.4639682539715.2360317460310
523148.22961.49253968254186.707460317460
532836.52989.72111111111-153.221111111111
543153.53129.2639682539724.2360317460319
552656.92857.34968253968-200.449682539683
562834.72787.4211111111147.2788888888888
573172.53133.9353968254038.5646031746032
582998.83235.46396825397-236.663968253968
593103.13094.83539682548.2646031746029
602735.62703.3496825396832.2503174603174
612818.12944.03634920635-125.936349206348
622874.42947.40777777778-73.0077777777776
633438.53375.1649206349263.3350793650789
642949.13126.19349206349-177.093492063493
653306.83154.42206349206152.377936507937
6635303293.96492063492236.035079365080
673003.83022.05063492063-18.2506349206348
683206.42952.12206349206254.277936507937
693514.63298.63634920635215.963650793651
703522.63400.16492063492122.435079365079
713525.53259.53634920635265.963650793651
722996.22868.05063492063128.149365079365
733231.13108.7373015873122.362698412699
7430303112.10873015873-82.10873015873
753541.73539.865873015871.83412698412645
763113.23290.89444444445-177.694444444445
773390.83319.1230158730271.6769841269842
783424.23458.66587301587-34.4658730158731
793079.83186.75158730159-106.951587301587
803123.43116.823015873026.57698412698441
813317.13463.3373015873-146.237301587302
823579.93564.8658730158715.0341269841272
833317.93424.2373015873-106.337301587302
842668.13032.75158730159-364.651587301587


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.5068112943829640.9863774112340730.493188705617036
180.5879439029344990.8241121941310030.412056097065501
190.665659730312770.6686805393744610.334340269687230
200.5652140993657420.8695718012685150.434785900634258
210.4727059270472090.9454118540944180.527294072952791
220.4589885522979210.9179771045958420.541011447702079
230.4016640043179920.8033280086359840.598335995682008
240.3165224297306450.633044859461290.683477570269355
250.2351231455377690.4702462910755390.76487685446223
260.1861791735120810.3723583470241610.81382082648792
270.1440269136691740.2880538273383480.855973086330826
280.1633354501752470.3266709003504930.836664549824753
290.1147606262772510.2295212525545010.88523937372275
300.09978389250936810.1995677850187360.900216107490632
310.07592121106862430.1518424221372490.924078788931376
320.0921165066345720.1842330132691440.907883493365428
330.07569894435979870.1513978887195970.924301055640201
340.0525739965815650.105147993163130.947426003418435
350.04989644293619350.0997928858723870.950103557063807
360.06888612007133520.1377722401426700.931113879928665
370.0552538196025940.1105076392051880.944746180397406
380.04251681831253920.08503363662507840.95748318168746
390.03479877506579240.06959755013158480.965201224934208
400.02274591632556420.04549183265112850.977254083674436
410.02419005923678390.04838011847356780.975809940763216
420.02272011768803830.04544023537607670.977279882311962
430.01755540584257440.03511081168514870.982444594157426
440.01813913256024600.03627826512049210.981860867439754
450.02659588308020240.05319176616040470.973404116919798
460.01698376084676620.03396752169353240.983016239153234
470.02187211845158160.04374423690316310.978127881548418
480.07779807837459580.1555961567491920.922201921625404
490.06082651458268210.1216530291653640.939173485417318
500.04267437807066900.08534875614133790.957325621929331
510.02816616796525000.05633233593050010.97183383203475
520.04402365934804440.08804731869608890.955976340651956
530.06533810029251060.1306762005850210.93466189970749
540.04908916604587040.09817833209174080.95091083395413
550.07754725633291760.1550945126658350.922452743667082
560.0675846408935540.1351692817871080.932415359106446
570.04745000563071540.09490001126143070.952549994369285
580.2129120201099020.4258240402198030.787087979890098
590.2662612995980190.5325225991960380.733738700401981
600.2027396200672970.4054792401345930.797260379932703
610.4782613634718150.956522726943630.521738636528185
620.4795482163850950.959096432770190.520451783614905
630.443408854267030.886817708534060.55659114573297
640.551175097145790.897649805708420.44882490285421
650.5760180380136960.8479639239726080.423981961986304
660.4637657620323750.927531524064750.536234237967625
670.489131005547340.978262011094680.51086899445266


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level70.137254901960784NOK
10% type I error level160.313725490196078NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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