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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(10967.87,10433.56,10665.78,10666.71,10682.74,10777.22,10052.6,10213.97,10546.82,10767.2,10444.5,10314.68,9042.56,9220.75,9721.84,9978.53,9923.81,9892.56,10500.98,10179.35,10080.48,9492.44,8616.49,8685.4,8160.67,8048.1,8641.21,8526.63,8474.21,7916.13,7977.64,8334.59,8623.36,9098.03,9154.34,9284.73,9492.49,9682.35,9762.12,10124.63,10540.05,10601.61,10323.73,10418.4,10092.96,10364.91,10152.09,10032.8,10204.59,10001.6,10411.75,10673.38,10539.51,10723.78,10682.06,10283.19,10377.18,10486.64,10545.38,10554.27,10532.54,10324.31,10695.25,10827.81,10872.48,10971.19,11145.65,11234.68,11333.88,10997.97,11036.89,11257.35,11533.59,11963.12,12185.15,12377.62,12512.89,12631.48,12268.53,12754.8,13407.75,13480.21,13673.28,13239.71,13557.69,13901.28,13200.58,13406.97,12538.12,12419.57,12193.88,12656.63,12812.48,12056.67,11322.38,11530.75,11114.08,9181.73,8614.55) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '2' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '3' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '0' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [1,] -0.76642522 0.1319399 0.06643670 0.9695014 -0.16755107 -0.1866711 [2,] -0.76746233 0.1309596 0.06625833 0.9692084 -0.02326108 -0.1796771 [3,] -0.76733373 0.1316189 0.06511930 0.9693225 0.00000000 -0.1793248 [4,] -0.76749117 0.0814247 0.00000000 0.9710543 0.00000000 -0.1869889 [5,] 0.04477232 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.1269741 0.00000000 -0.1881812 [6,] 0.15564182 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 -0.1749997 [7,] 0.15395146 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 [8,] 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.00000000 0.0000000 [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA [,7] [1,] 0.1506796 [2,] 0.0000000 [3,] 0.0000000 [4,] 0.0000000 [5,] 0.0000000 [6,] 0.0000000 [7,] 0.0000000 [8,] 0.0000000 [9,] NA [10,] NA [11,] NA [12,] NA [13,] NA [14,] NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] [,6] [,7] [1,] 0.00000 0.34911 0.58224 0.00000 0.70721 0.21659 0.73308 [2,] 0.00000 0.35309 0.58337 0.00000 0.86988 0.23588 NA [3,] 0.00000 0.34999 0.58970 0.00000 NA 0.23686 NA [4,] 0.00000 0.43996 NA 0.00000 NA 0.21305 NA [5,] 0.00003 NA NA 0.22378 NA 0.00000 NA [6,] 0.12700 NA NA NA NA 0.24221 NA [7,] 0.13131 NA NA NA NA NA NA [8,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [9,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [10,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [11,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [12,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [13,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [14,] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.7664 0.1319 0.0664 0.9695 -0.1676 -0.1867 0.1507 s.e. 0.1087 0.1402 0.1203 0.0482 0.4447 0.1500 0.4405 sigma^2 estimated as 152864: log likelihood = -724.85, aic = 1465.7 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.7664 0.1319 0.0664 0.9695 -0.1676 -0.1867 0.1507 s.e. 0.1087 0.1402 0.1203 0.0482 0.4447 0.1500 0.4405 sigma^2 estimated as 152864: log likelihood = -724.85, aic = 1465.7 [[3]][[3]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.7675 0.1310 0.0663 0.9692 -0.0233 -0.1797 0 s.e. 0.1086 0.1403 0.1204 0.0486 0.1416 0.1506 0 sigma^2 estimated as 153108: log likelihood = -724.9, aic = 1463.8 [[3]][[4]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.7673 0.1316 0.0651 0.9693 0 -0.1793 0 s.e. 0.1086 0.1401 0.1203 0.0483 0 0.1506 0 sigma^2 estimated as 153211: log likelihood = -724.91, aic = 1461.83 [[3]][[5]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 -0.7675 0.0814 0 0.9711 0 -0.1870 0 s.e. 0.1089 0.1050 0 0.0475 0 0.1491 0 sigma^2 estimated as 153667: log likelihood = -725.06, aic = 1460.12 [[3]][[6]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.0448 0 0 0.1270 0 -0.1882 0 s.e. 0.0101 0 0 0.1037 0 0.0123 0 sigma^2 estimated as 160221: log likelihood = -726.73, aic = 1461.46 [[3]][[7]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1556 0 0 0 0 -0.1750 0 s.e. 0.1011 0 0 0 0 0.1487 0 sigma^2 estimated as 160626: log likelihood = -726.8, aic = 1459.59 [[3]][[8]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, fixed = last.arma$next.vector, method = "ML") Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 sar1 sar2 sma1 0.1540 0 0 0 0 0 0 s.e. 0.1012 0 0 0 0 0 0 sigma^2 estimated as 164079: log likelihood = -727.46, aic = 1458.93 $aic [1] 1465.704 1463.803 1461.830 1460.122 1461.456 1459.593 1458.930 1459.217 Warning messages: 1: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 2: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 3: In log(s2) : NaNs produced 4: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 5: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 6: In arima(series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, : some AR parameters were fixed: setting transform.pars = FALSE 7: In max(i) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf 8: In max(i) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf 9: In max(try.data.frame[, 4], na.rm = TRUE) : no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/12syz1229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 99 Frequency = 1 [1] 10.9678644 -527.9418917 314.4778033 -34.8206075 15.8868251 [6] 92.0121581 -739.1653337 272.9263052 308.0068533 169.1372573 [11] -356.6278222 -80.1398646 -1252.1340218 374.0347283 473.6573898 [16] 179.5464641 -94.2377997 -22.8257762 613.2309831 -415.2971458 [21] -49.3545927 -572.8188194 -785.4203849 203.7637793 -535.3387949 [26] -31.7870516 610.4403156 -205.8901490 -34.7802420 -550.0098646 [31] 147.4272295 347.4804458 233.8170272 430.2134376 -16.7661384 [36] 121.7209934 187.6862694 157.8750452 50.5407763 350.2292922 [41] 359.6110571 -2.3945145 -287.3572517 137.4500310 -340.0145845 [46] 322.0519624 -254.6870989 -86.5260508 190.1548694 -229.4373209 [51] 441.4006064 198.4868097 -174.1483199 204.8794816 -70.0886351 [56] -392.4471452 155.3966179 94.9901025 41.8884734 -0.1531086 [61] -23.0986285 -204.8846348 402.9973120 75.4532463 24.2621948 [66] 91.8329884 159.2634516 62.1716287 85.4937017 -351.1819846 [71] 90.6338341 214.4682093 242.2998617 387.0024493 155.9032304 [76] 158.2881579 105.6389630 97.7649863 -381.2071034 542.1466815 [81] 578.0880247 -28.0626042 181.9146774 -463.2934079 384.7287335 [86] 294.6365155 -753.5961813 314.2637864 -900.6240413 15.2107239 [91] -207.4390547 497.4953045 84.6089630 -779.8033347 -617.9319488 [96] 321.4150158 -448.7488652 -1868.2030462 -269.6919009 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2tne71229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/391ko1229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4a4wa1229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/5qo511229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/65iao1229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/7coly1229285903.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/8178y1229285903.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/91dod1229285903.tab") > > system("convert tmp/12syz1229285903.ps tmp/12syz1229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/2tne71229285903.ps tmp/2tne71229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/391ko1229285903.ps tmp/391ko1229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/4a4wa1229285903.ps tmp/4a4wa1229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/5qo511229285903.ps tmp/5qo511229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/65iao1229285903.ps tmp/65iao1229285903.png") > system("convert tmp/7coly1229285903.ps tmp/7coly1229285903.png") > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 18.146 3.477 20.056