R version 2.8.0 (2008-10-20)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

R is a collaborative project with many contributors.
Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(113438,109416,109406,105645,101328,97686,93093,91382,122257,139183,139887,131822,116805,113706,113012,110452,107005,102841,98173,98181,137277,147579,146571,138920,130340,128140,127059,122860,117702,113537,108366,111078,150739,159129,157928,147768,137507,136919,136151,133001,125554,119647,114158,116193,152803,161761,160942,149470,139208,134588,130322,126611,122401,117352,112135,112879,148729,157230,157221,146681,136524,132111,125326,122716,116615,113719,110737,112093,143565,149946,149147,134339,122683,115614,116566,111272,104609,101802,94542,93051,124129,130374,123946,114971,105531,104919,104782,101281,94545,93248,84031,87486,115867,120327,117008,108811,104519)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '0'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ma1    sar1     sar2     sma1
      -0.0035  0.5531  -0.0048  -0.9637
s.e.   0.1319  0.4111   0.2598   1.8602

sigma^2 estimated as 5651030:  log likelihood = -666.72,  aic = 1343.43
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 86 
End = 97 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  99728.89  99741.27  95080.56  88988.17  85707.24  79312.23  78465.83
 [8] 110813.91 118706.33 114340.64 105020.48  94831.90

$se
Time Series:
Start = 86 
End = 97 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 2460.011 3472.820 4250.800 4906.947 5485.157 6007.975 6488.805 6936.383
 [9] 7356.781 7754.421 8132.642 8494.062

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 86 
End = 97 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  94907.27  92934.54  86749.00  79370.55  74956.33  67536.60  65747.77
 [8]  97218.60 104287.04  99141.98  89080.51  78183.54
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 86 
End = 97 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 104550.51 106547.99 103412.13  98605.78  96458.15  91087.87  91183.88
 [8] 124409.22 133125.62 129539.31 120960.46 111480.27
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 113438.00 109416.00 109406.00 105645.00 101328.00  97686.00  93093.00
 [8]  91382.00 122257.00 139183.00 139887.00 131822.00 116805.00 113706.00
[15] 113012.00 110452.00 107005.00 102841.00  98173.00  98181.00 137277.00
[22] 147579.00 146571.00 138920.00 130340.00 128140.00 127059.00 122860.00
[29] 117702.00 113537.00 108366.00 111078.00 150739.00 159129.00 157928.00
[36] 147768.00 137507.00 136919.00 136151.00 133001.00 125554.00 119647.00
[43] 114158.00 116193.00 152803.00 161761.00 160942.00 149470.00 139208.00
[50] 134588.00 130322.00 126611.00 122401.00 117352.00 112135.00 112879.00
[57] 148729.00 157230.00 157221.00 146681.00 136524.00 132111.00 125326.00
[64] 122716.00 116615.00 113719.00 110737.00 112093.00 143565.00 149946.00
[71] 149147.00 134339.00 122683.00 115614.00 116566.00 111272.00 104609.00
[78] 101802.00  94542.00  93051.00 124129.00 130374.00 123946.00 114971.00
[85] 105531.00  99728.89  99741.27  95080.56  88988.17  85707.24  79312.23
[92]  78465.83 110813.91 118706.33 114340.64 105020.48  94831.90
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 86 
End = 97 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.02466698 0.03481828 0.04470735 0.05514156 0.06399876 0.07575093
 [7] 0.08269594 0.06259488 0.06197463 0.06781859 0.07743863 0.08956967
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1igb71229367642.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2ji3s1229367642.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/3jv7q1229367642.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4zrcl1229367642.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1igb71229367642.ps tmp/1igb71229367642.png")
> system("convert tmp/2ji3s1229367642.ps tmp/2ji3s1229367642.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.690   0.331   1.940