R version 2.7.0 (2008-04-22)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(13429.9,13470.1,14785.8,14292,14308.8,14013,13240.9,12153.4,14289.7,15669.2,14169.5,14569.8,14469.1,14264.9,15320.9,14433.5,13691.5,14194.1,13519.2,11857.9,14616,15643.4,14077.2,14887.5,14159.9,14643,17192.5,15386.1,14287.1,17526.6,14497,14398.3,16629.6,16670.7,16614.8,16869.2,15663.9,16359.9,18447.7,16889,16505,18320.9,15052.1,15699.8,18135.3,16768.7,18883,19021,18101.9,17776.1,21489.9,17065.3,18690,18953.1,16398.9,16895.7,18553,19270,19422.1,17579.4,18637.3,18076.7,20438.6,18075.2,19563,19899.2,19227.5,17789.6,19220.8,21968.9,21131.5,19484.6)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '1'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '0'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1     ar2     ar3     sar1     sar2     sma1
      -0.0526  0.4020  0.6505  -0.0150  -0.3214  -0.9316
s.e.   0.1216  0.1042  0.1259   0.2653   0.2278   0.5936

sigma^2 estimated as 379471:  log likelihood = -389.26,  aic = 792.51
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 19056.00 18402.91 20037.43 19108.39 18295.98 19431.00 18014.84 16967.17
 [9] 19332.20 20249.89 19210.78 19224.04

$se
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  679.4213  679.3504  731.5595  833.2475  835.8726  899.6057  938.3223
 [8]  952.5367 1002.0277 1026.1314 1050.1624 1084.2202

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 17724.33 17071.38 18603.57 17475.22 16657.67 17667.77 16175.73 15100.19
 [9] 17368.22 18238.67 17152.47 17098.97
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 20387.66 19734.44 21471.28 20741.55 19934.29 21194.23 19853.95 18834.14
 [9] 21296.17 22261.11 21269.10 21349.11
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1] 13429.90 13470.10 14785.80 14292.00 14308.80 14013.00 13240.90 12153.40
 [9] 14289.70 15669.20 14169.50 14569.80 14469.10 14264.90 15320.90 14433.50
[17] 13691.50 14194.10 13519.20 11857.90 14616.00 15643.40 14077.20 14887.50
[25] 14159.90 14643.00 17192.50 15386.10 14287.10 17526.60 14497.00 14398.30
[33] 16629.60 16670.70 16614.80 16869.20 15663.90 16359.90 18447.70 16889.00
[41] 16505.00 18320.90 15052.10 15699.80 18135.30 16768.70 18883.00 19021.00
[49] 18101.90 17776.10 21489.90 17065.30 18690.00 18953.10 16398.90 16895.70
[57] 18553.00 19270.00 19422.10 17579.40 19056.00 18402.91 20037.43 19108.39
[65] 18295.98 19431.00 18014.84 16967.17 19332.20 20249.89 19210.78 19224.04
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 61 
End = 72 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.03565394 0.03691538 0.03650965 0.04360638 0.04568613 0.04629745
 [7] 0.05208608 0.05614000 0.05183207 0.05067343 0.05466526 0.05639919
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1cses1229529187.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2s68z1229529187.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/30vba1229529187.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4gt6c1229529187.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1cses1229529187.ps tmp/1cses1229529187.png")
> system("convert tmp/2s68z1229529187.ps tmp/2s68z1229529187.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  6.251   1.111   6.908