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Paper - Multiple Regression - Gas met Trend & Monthly dummies

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 22 Dec 2008 04:36:38 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/22/t1229945851at42i5xg05eip8e.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 22 Dec 2008 12:37:40 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/22/t1229945851at42i5xg05eip8e.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
127,96 0 127,47 0 126,47 0 125,75 0 125,42 0 125,14 0 125,15 0 125,51 0 125,63 0 126,22 0 126,88 0 127,96 0 128,74 0 129,6 0 131,2 0 132,72 0 134,67 0 135,94 0 136,39 0 136,74 0 137,2 0 137,36 0 138,63 0 141,07 0 143,32 0 147,91 0 152,56 0 151,61 0 156,56 0 157,45 0 158,13 0 159,18 0 159,47 0 159,79 0 161,65 0 162,77 0 163,48 0 166,16 0 163,86 0 162,12 0 149,08 0 145,32 0 141,21 0 134,68 0 133,65 0 139,17 0 138,61 0 144,96 1 157,99 1 167,18 1 174,48 1 182,77 1 190,00 1 189,70 1 188,90 1 198,28 1 201,18 1 204,14 1 221,02 1 221,12 1 220,68 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Gasindex[t] = + 119.901837133550 + 22.9243078175896dumivariable[t] + 3.21734826275786M1[t] + 1.14631704668838M2[t] + 2.34897149837134M3[t] + 2.78162595005429M4[t] + 2.08628040173724M5[t] + 0.802934853420195M6[t] -0.798410694896848M7[t] -0.723756243213888M8[t] -1.02310179153094M9[t] + 0.0395526601520119M10[t] + 3.21420711183497M11[t] + 0.847345548317046t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)119.9018371335507.47379916.04300
dumivariable22.92430781758966.4124293.5750.0008230.000412
M13.217348262757868.5378640.37680.7079940.353997
M21.146317046688388.9614860.12790.8987610.449381
M32.348971498371348.9526680.26240.7941780.397089
M42.781625950054298.9464790.31090.7572370.378619
M52.086280401737248.9429230.23330.8165510.408275
M60.8029348534201958.9420050.08980.9288330.464416
M7-0.7984106948968488.943725-0.08930.9292460.464623
M8-0.7237562432138888.948081-0.08090.9358780.467939
M9-1.023101791530948.955069-0.11420.9095280.454764
M100.03955266015201198.9646850.00440.9964980.498249
M113.214207111834978.9769180.35810.7219070.360954
t0.8473455483170460.1535925.51691e-061e-06


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.880299423307561
R-squared0.774927074675625
Adjusted R-squared0.712672861288032
F-TEST (value)12.447785178024
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value3.85795839719094e-11
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation14.0718642559844
Sum Squared Residuals9306.81609102606


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1127.96123.9665309446253.9934690553745
2127.47122.7428452768734.72715472312704
3126.47124.7928452768731.67715472312703
4125.75126.072845276873-0.322845276872946
5125.42126.224845276873-0.80484527687297
6125.14125.788845276873-0.648845276872942
7125.15125.0348452768730.115154723127050
8125.51125.956845276873-0.446845276872959
9125.63126.504845276873-0.874845276872957
10126.22128.414845276873-2.19484527687295
11126.88132.436845276873-5.55684527687297
12127.96130.069983713355-2.10998371335504
13128.74134.13467752443-5.39467752442994
14129.6132.910991856677-3.31099185667749
15131.2134.960991856678-3.76099185667753
16132.72136.240991856678-3.52099185667753
17134.67136.392991856678-1.72299185667753
18135.94135.956991856678-0.0169918566775213
19136.39135.2029918566781.18700814332246
20136.74136.1249918566780.61500814332248
21137.2136.6729918566780.52700814332247
22137.36138.582991856678-1.22299185667751
23138.63142.604991856678-3.97499185667753
24141.07140.2381302931600.831869706840392
25143.32144.302824104235-0.982824104234517
26147.91143.0791384364824.8308615635179
27152.56145.1291384364827.43086156351792
28151.61146.4091384364825.20086156351792
29156.56146.5611384364829.99886156351792
30157.45146.12513843648211.3248615635179
31158.13145.37113843648212.7588615635179
32159.18146.29313843648212.8868615635179
33159.47146.84113843648212.6288615635179
34159.79148.75113843648211.0388615635179
35161.65152.7731384364828.87686156351792
36162.77150.40627687296412.3637231270358
37163.48154.4709706840399.00902931596092
38166.16153.24728501628712.9127149837133
39163.86155.2972850162878.56271498371337
40162.12156.5772850162875.54271498371334
41149.08156.729285016287-7.64928501628663
42145.32156.293285016287-10.9732850162867
43141.21155.539285016287-14.3292850162866
44134.68156.461285016287-21.7812850162867
45133.65157.009285016287-23.3592850162866
46139.17158.919285016287-19.7492850162867
47138.61162.941285016287-24.3312850162866
48144.96183.498731270358-38.5387312703583
49157.99187.563425081433-29.5734250814332
50167.18186.339739413681-19.1597394136808
51174.48188.389739413681-13.9097394136808
52182.77189.669739413681-6.89973941368078
53190189.8217394136810.178260586319218
54189.7189.3857394136810.314260586319207
55188.9188.6317394136810.268260586319221
56198.28189.5537394136818.7262605863192
57201.18190.10173941368111.0782605863192
58204.14192.01173941368112.1282605863192
59221.02196.03373941368124.9862605863192
60221.12193.66687785016327.4531221498371
61220.68197.73157166123822.9484283387622


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.005883840826114250.01176768165222850.994116159173886
180.001980315749674250.00396063149934850.998019684250326
190.000577035072442270.001154070144884540.999422964927558
200.0001438188417646170.0002876376835292340.999856181158235
213.4222792429422e-056.8445584858844e-050.99996577720757
226.93090576233189e-061.38618115246638e-050.999993069094238
231.51272192791410e-063.02544385582819e-060.999998487278072
243.84167650924973e-077.68335301849946e-070.999999615832349
256.13041655685933e-081.22608331137187e-070.999999938695834
262.41779760792633e-084.83559521585266e-080.999999975822024
273.18056106517874e-086.36112213035747e-080.99999996819439
281.29066964470506e-082.58133928941012e-080.999999987093304
291.45019807035197e-082.90039614070394e-080.99999998549802
301.13198193445803e-082.26396386891607e-080.99999998868018
318.05627498938564e-091.61125499787713e-080.999999991943725
325.96261051979116e-091.19252210395823e-080.99999999403739
334.52880664570084e-099.05761329140168e-090.999999995471193
343.89021525060495e-097.78043050120991e-090.999999996109785
355.95343355625792e-091.19068671125158e-080.999999994046566
361.67522678860134e-083.35045357720268e-080.999999983247732
371.29829791788559e-072.59659583577118e-070.999999870170208
381.27136566005498e-062.54273132010996e-060.99999872863434
392.65406248108387e-055.30812496216773e-050.99997345937519
400.001204915327774290.002409830655548580.998795084672226
410.02151244627698440.04302489255396870.978487553723016
420.1573275964032400.3146551928064800.84267240359676
430.5749125200047650.850174959990470.425087479995235
440.6150249476138210.7699501047723580.384975052386179


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level230.821428571428571NOK
5% type I error level250.892857142857143NOK
10% type I error level250.892857142857143NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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