R version 2.8.0 (2008-10-20)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(98.8,100.5,110.4,96.4,101.9,106.2,81.0,94.7,101.0,109.4,102.3,90.7,96.2,96.1,106.0,103.1,102.0,104.7,86.0,92.1,106.9,112.6,101.7,92.0,97.4,97.0,105.4,102.7,98.1,104.5,87.4,89.9,109.8,111.7,98.6,96.9,95.1,97.0,112.7,102.9,97.4,111.4,87.4,96.8,114.1,110.3,103.9,101.6,94.6,95.9,104.7,102.8,98.1,113.9,80.9,95.7,113.2,105.9,108.8,102.3,99.0,100.7,115.5,100.7,109.9,114.6,85.4,100.5,114.8,116.5,112.9,102.0,106.0,105.3,118.8,106.1,109.3,117.2,92.5,104.2,112.5,122.4,113.3,100.0)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '2'
> par7 = '0'
> par6 = '3'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '1'
> par3 = '0'
> par2 = '1'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1     ar2     ar3     sar1     sar2
      -0.0536  0.2923  0.5069  -0.3647  -0.2500
s.e.   0.1118  0.1121  0.1273   0.1679   0.1727

sigma^2 estimated as 12.51:  log likelihood = -162.74,  aic = 337.48
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 73 
End = 84 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 103.9503 102.8663 115.8188 105.6940 107.7019 115.9703  88.0607 100.6949
 [9] 116.2753 115.4810 111.4686 103.3055

$se
Time Series:
Start = 73 
End = 84 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 3.537194 3.542272 3.692953 4.057822 4.059565 4.184406 4.266487 4.277895
 [9] 4.341594 4.367363 4.381323 4.409237

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 73 
End = 84 
Frequency = 1 
 [1]  97.01738  95.92342 108.58063  97.74067  99.74518 107.76884  79.69839
 [8]  92.31027 107.76575 106.92097 102.88124  94.66338
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 73 
End = 84 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 110.88318 109.80913 123.05701 113.64733 115.65868 124.17171  96.42302
 [8] 109.07962 124.78480 124.04103 120.05602 111.94759
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  98.8000 100.5000 110.4000  96.4000 101.9000 106.2000  81.0000  94.7000
 [9] 101.0000 109.4000 102.3000  90.7000  96.2000  96.1000 106.0000 103.1000
[17] 102.0000 104.7000  86.0000  92.1000 106.9000 112.6000 101.7000  92.0000
[25]  97.4000  97.0000 105.4000 102.7000  98.1000 104.5000  87.4000  89.9000
[33] 109.8000 111.7000  98.6000  96.9000  95.1000  97.0000 112.7000 102.9000
[41]  97.4000 111.4000  87.4000  96.8000 114.1000 110.3000 103.9000 101.6000
[49]  94.6000  95.9000 104.7000 102.8000  98.1000 113.9000  80.9000  95.7000
[57] 113.2000 105.9000 108.8000 102.3000  99.0000 100.7000 115.5000 100.7000
[65] 109.9000 114.6000  85.4000 100.5000 114.8000 116.5000 112.9000 102.0000
[73] 103.9503 102.8663 115.8188 105.6940 107.7019 115.9703  88.0607 100.6949
[81] 116.2753 115.4810 111.4686 103.3055
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 73 
End = 84 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.03402775 0.03443570 0.03188560 0.03839217 0.03769260 0.03608171
 [7] 0.04844938 0.04248371 0.03733892 0.03781889 0.03930543 0.04268154
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/1fiyc1230050828.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/2hiww1230050828.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/33hir1230050828.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/rcomp/tmp/4dru81230050828.tab") 
> system("convert tmp/1fiyc1230050828.ps tmp/1fiyc1230050828.png")
> system("convert tmp/2hiww1230050828.ps tmp/2hiww1230050828.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.346   0.399   1.590