R version 2.8.0 (2008-10-20)
Copyright (C) 2008 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0

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> x <- c(93.9,97.5,98.1,89.6,98.4,102,99.2,101.8,108.3,106.7,108.2,94.2,95.1,98.1,93.2,94,97.2,95,90.5,91.6,90.5,79.9,74.9,74.3,75.9,77.7,86.9,90.7,91,89.5,92.5,94.1,98.5,96.8,91.2,97.1,104.9,110.9,104.8,94.1,95.8,99.3,101.1,104,99,105.4,107.1,110.7,117.1,118.7,126.5,127.5,134.6,131.8,135.9,142.7,141.7,153.4,145,137.7,148.3,152.2,169.4,168.6,161.1,174.1,179,190.6,190,181.6,174.8,180.5,196.8,193.8,197,216.3,221.4,217.9,229.7,227.4,204.2,196.6,198.8,207.5,190.7)
> par10 = 'FALSE'
> par9 = '0'
> par8 = '0'
> par7 = '1'
> par6 = '1'
> par5 = '12'
> par4 = '0'
> par3 = '1'
> par2 = '0.0'
> par1 = '12'
> #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 ()
> #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa
> #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/
> #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education
> #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!)
> par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods
> par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda
> par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing
> par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing
> par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period
> par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p
> par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q
> par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P
> par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q
> if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE
> if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE
> if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)
> if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2
> lx <- length(x)
> first <- lx - 2*par1
> nx <- lx - par1
> nx1 <- nx + 1
> fx <- lx - nx
> if (fx < 1) {
+ fx <- par5
+ nx1 <- lx + fx - 1
+ first <- lx - 2*fx
+ }
> first <- 1
> if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)
> (arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

Call:
arima(x = x[1:nx], order = c(par6, par3, par7), seasonal = list(order = c(par8, 
    par4, par9), period = par5), include.mean = par10, method = "ML")

Coefficients:
          ar1     ma1
      -0.6315  0.7977
s.e.   0.2015  0.1517

sigma^2 estimated as 0.002686:  log likelihood = 110.88,  aic = -215.76
> (forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))
$pred
Time Series:
Start = 74 
End = 85 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 5.287897 5.284292 5.286568 5.285131 5.286039 5.285465 5.285827 5.285599
 [9] 5.285743 5.285652 5.285709 5.285673

$se
Time Series:
Start = 74 
End = 85 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.05183116 0.07962737 0.09677957 0.11305707 0.12628774 0.13882139
 [7] 0.14998385 0.16056550 0.17037595 0.17972069 0.18856131 0.19703079

> (lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 74 
End = 85 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 5.186308 5.128222 5.096880 5.063539 5.038515 5.013375 4.991859 4.970890
 [9] 4.951806 4.933399 4.916129 4.899493
> (ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)
Time Series:
Start = 74 
End = 85 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 5.389486 5.440361 5.476256 5.506723 5.533563 5.557555 5.579796 5.600307
 [9] 5.619680 5.637904 5.655290 5.671853
> if (par2 == 0) {
+ x <- exp(x)
+ forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)
+ lb <- exp(lb)
+ ub <- exp(ub)
+ }
> if (par2 != 0) {
+ x <- x^(1/par2)
+ forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)
+ lb <- lb^(1/par2)
+ ub <- ub^(1/par2)
+ }
> if (par2 < 0) {
+ olb <- lb
+ lb <- ub
+ ub <- olb
+ }
> (actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))
 [1]  93.9000  97.5000  98.1000  89.6000  98.4000 102.0000  99.2000 101.8000
 [9] 108.3000 106.7000 108.2000  94.2000  95.1000  98.1000  93.2000  94.0000
[17]  97.2000  95.0000  90.5000  91.6000  90.5000  79.9000  74.9000  74.3000
[25]  75.9000  77.7000  86.9000  90.7000  91.0000  89.5000  92.5000  94.1000
[33]  98.5000  96.8000  91.2000  97.1000 104.9000 110.9000 104.8000  94.1000
[41]  95.8000  99.3000 101.1000 104.0000  99.0000 105.4000 107.1000 110.7000
[49] 117.1000 118.7000 126.5000 127.5000 134.6000 131.8000 135.9000 142.7000
[57] 141.7000 153.4000 145.0000 137.7000 148.3000 152.2000 169.4000 168.6000
[65] 161.1000 174.1000 179.0000 190.6000 190.0000 181.6000 174.8000 180.5000
[73] 196.8000 197.9267 197.2145 197.6639 197.3800 197.5593 197.4460 197.5175
[81] 197.4724 197.5009 197.4829 197.4943 197.4871
> (perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)
Time Series:
Start = 74 
End = 85 
Frequency = 1 
 [1] 0.05455537 0.08617735 0.10656751 0.12656219 0.14329084 0.15954338
 [7] 0.17435787 0.18870397 0.20227295 0.21544269 0.22812599 0.24048470
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/tmp/1eyoo1230115049.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)
> ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))
> plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))
> usr <- par('usr')
> rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')
> rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')
> abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)
> polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)
> lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)
> lines(x, lwd=2)
> lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')
> box()
> par(opar)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)
> perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96
+ perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]
+ perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])
+ perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2
+ perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]
+ prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)
+ }
> perf.mape = perf.mape / fx
> perf.mse = perf.mse / fx
> perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)
> postscript(file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/tmp/2wjhh1230115049.ps",horizontal=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))
> dum <- forecast$pred
> dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]
> lines(dum, lty=1)
> lines(ub,lty=3)
> lines(lb,lty=3)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)
> mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')
> mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')
> a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i])
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.element(a,'-')
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/tmp/3or1v1230115049.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:fx) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))
+ a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/html/freestat/rcomp/tmp/4kw851230115050.tab") 
> 
> system("convert tmp/1eyoo1230115049.ps tmp/1eyoo1230115049.png")
> system("convert tmp/2wjhh1230115049.ps tmp/2wjhh1230115049.png")
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  0.842   0.444   0.964